WASHINGTON -- An alleged clandestine deal in which Zimbabwe might sell sensitive nuclear material to Iran could revive debate over the Persian Gulf nations ability to import uranium ore, despite international sanctions.Zimbabwes government took pains last week to deny allegations that it was secretly preparing to supply Iran with unrefined uranium, going so far as to hunt down a journalist who had reported the story and to demand a confession that he had fabricated substantiating comments from a government official.
Some analysts, though, say the West African nation has parsed its denials, leaving open the possibility of backtracking later on, should it ever decide to sell uranium ore to the suspected nuclear arms aspirant.
TheTimesof London on Aug. 10 quoted a senior official in Zimbabwes mining ministry describing a memorandum of understanding to export uranium to the Iranians.
The articles headline describes the understanding as a secret deal. Paraphrasing the official, the newspaper said the arrangement was known by only a handful of people at the top of Zimbabwes government.
If true, the planned transfer of the sensitive material could potentially violate international sanctions against Iran. Washington and its allies contend the Persian Gulf nation has flouted its U.N. atomic safeguards agreement and previously hidden military efforts aimed at ultimately developing nuclear warheads.
The reports publication prompted ascrambleby President Robert Mugabes government to provide an explanation. Deputy Mines and Mining Development Minister Gift Chimanikire, the reported source of the revelation, accused the British newspaper of misrepresenting his comments in an Aug. 8 interview.
Journalist Jerome Starkey thought of selling his paper by being untruthful, Chimanikire told ZimbabwesSunday Mailnewspaper. Separately, Mugabes minister for mines and mining development suggested that theTimesreporters conversation with his deputy had taken place in a dream.
Zimbabwean authorities then reportedly went a step further, arresting the articles co-author -- veteran correspondent Jan Raath -- and compelling him on Thursday to state in anaffidavitthat he had falsified his contribution to the story.
Starkey, whotweetedlast Monday that he was in Kenya, a day earlier decried Zimbabwes search for the journalists as a manhunt. With its forceful response, the Mugabe government appeared to be underscoring its denial that one of its officials had told them about a backroom uranium agreement with Tehran, Starkey indicated on Friday in response to a question.
Iran could refine raw uranium into fuel for nuclear power plants and nonmilitary research reactors, but the United States and other Western countries fear the Persian Gulf state wants to enrich the material to high purities for possible use in nuclear weapons.
The U.N. Security Council threatens harsh economic sanctions against any country found to sell uranium to Iran, except in pre-made nuclear power plant fuel rods.
However, neither Iran nor Zimbabwe is legally obligated to keep international monitors apprised of any trade in unrefined uranium ore, according to Olli Heinonen, a former top monitoring official for the International Atomic Energy Agency. The U.N. watchdog organization is responsible for ensuring that nuclear assets under its watch are not diverted for military use.
If Iran recovers uranium from the ore, it is obliged to report it only when it has reached the purity suitable for fuel fabrication or enrichment, Heinonen, now a senior fellow with Harvard Universitys Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Iran is now known in the 1990s to havediscreetly importeduranium in forms it was supposed to declare, and itshistoryof carrying out clandestine nuclear energy activities has created longstanding international worries that some amount of Iranian atomic work might still be going unreported to the U.N. organization.
In 2003, Tehrandisputedthe agencys contention that it was obligated to report a different form of uranium it had acquired from abroad 12 years earlier.
Iran has long denied harboring nuclear-bomb ambitions and insists it needs raw uranium to feed its legitimate atomic activities. Tehran described plans to build new research reactors when itannouncedthe launch of two new domestic uranium mines in April. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace nuclear expert Mark Hibbs, speaking toGSNby telephone from Berlin, noted that Iranian officials foresee a shortfall from the countrys domestic stocks as itexpandsits atomic energy program.
Speaking toBloombergwithin hours of theTimesarticles publication, Chimanikire said Zimbabwe had reached a broad mineral trading agreement with Iran that does not specify the export of uranium. He added, though, that his country is still working out how much uranium it possesses, and has yet to begin providing the substance to anyone at all.
However, an expert in African economics and security said the Mugabe government carefully qualified its rebuttal of theTimesarticle. Zimbabwe last week said its uranium resources were stilluntapped, and the country has never issued any [mining] license to any Iranian company."
Still, the African nation has been courting potential investors for its mineral deposits -- including uranium -- for some time, Raymond Gilpin, dean of the National Defense Universitys Africa Center for Strategic Studies, toldGlobal Security Newswirein an e-mail.
In early 2011, the country formallywelcomedTehran to access its uranium ore.
Zimbabwe holds rich resources, but the problem we face is lack of budget, finance and required technical equipment to take the very rich resources out and use them," Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi said at the time.
One Chinese company recently ruled out mining Zimbabwes uranium after deeming its deposits too small to be commercially worthwhile, Gilpin said. However, a less risk-averse customer might consider investing in the deposits, he said.
Tehran might see Zimbabwe as a possible partner in a secret venture simply from the point of view that Mugabe faces diplomatic pressure from some of the same Western countries that are now sanctioning Iran, Hibbs said.
A Clinton-era U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe said that poor economic policies and election practices have kept Mugabes government in the international doghouse for years.
Any Zimbabwean uranium shipments to Iran would most likely be detected at some point, landing Harare in an even deeper international hole, said Johnnie Carson, who stepped down in March from a four-year stint heading the U.S. State Departments African Affairs Bureau.
The recentTimesarticle reportedly prompted the State Department tocautionMugabes government against selling uranium to Iran, warning that such sales could violate a 7-year-old U.N. Security Council sanctionsresolution. That measure could allow a Security Councilcommitteeto impose trade restrictions and financial penalties on persons or entities found to be selling uranium ore to Iran.
However,international differencesover sanctions enforcement could bode poorly for that bodys future ability to act on potential violations, Patrick Clawson, research director for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, indicated by e-mail.
In addition, global condemnation has not always been enough in the past to deter Zimbabwe from engaging in illicit mineral dealings, according to Peter Hain, a former Africa minister for the British Foreign Office.
Zimbabwes precious metals trade needs to be regulated properly, the Labor Party lawmaker said in a phone interview from the United Kingdom. He said Zimbabwe continues to traffic in domestically mined blood diamonds, even though the United Nations denounced such trade years ago.
Im very concerned that they could easily export the uranium to Iran,lifting two fingersat the international community, he said, referring to the British equivalent of a middle-digit insult in the United States.
By National Journal
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