The New York Times | David Leonhardt: What war does � and doesn�t � look like.

Last spring, a former Pentagon official named Ilan Goldenberg wrote an article for Foreign Affairs called �What a War with Iran Would Look Like.� It included:

Between the United States and Iran there is a distinct potential for misunderstanding, not least when both actors are making decisions under time pressure, on the basis of uncertain information, and in a climate of deep mutual distrust. Iran may mistake a one-off strike by the United States as the beginning of a significant military campaign that requires an immediate and harsh response. The danger that the United States will send confusing signals to the Iranians is especially high given Trump�s tendency to go off on Twitter �

So far � in the hours after Iran�s retaliatory attack on two bases in Iraq that house American troops � this kind of vicious cycle does not look immediately likely. The attacks may not have killed any Americans, and Iran�s foreign minister signaled that the attacks �concluded� Iran�s response to the killing of its top general, Qassim Suleimani.

That would be very good news. As The Dispatch�s David French writes: �If this is Iran�s retaliation, and there are no U.S. casualties, then this is a good time to stop and wait. We shouldn�t feel like we have to have the last word. If we take out Suleimani, and they respond with an ineffective missile attack, then that�s a positive result.�

But it�s also not the end of this story. �This is the first round of what is going to be long, ugly & unpredictable,� Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution wrote. Iran�s president, Hassan Rouhani, said today that his country would ultimately avenge Suleimani�s death by driving all United States forces out of the Middle East.

Goldenberg, speaking last night to Vox�s Jen Kirby, said that the missile attacks are �not necessarily the entire Iranian response.� He added:

My sense is that Iran needed to do something quickly, something symbolically, something that was public given how public the killing of Soleimani was. � But Iran didn�t want to trigger an all-out war.

This Iranian attack is bold. It�s major. It�s significant. But it stops short of killing a large number of Americans. Then the Iranians, on their own state television, they�re saying things like 30 Americans were killed and that Iranian planes are flying into Iraqi territory. They�re saying all kinds of crazy things, which is really for their own domestic audience.

So the reality is Iran found a way to, at least for the moment, respond relatively proportionally. � I think Iran will look to do other things over time, just maybe not as public. I still think we need to be worried about things like cyberattacks, terrorist attacks, targeting American embassies, assassination attempts on American officials. I think all those things are entirely on the table for potentially years, frankly, in retaliation.