I doubt that China or Russia would supply Saudi Arabia with enrichment or reprocessing technology but, if North Korea can do it, Saudi Arabia probably could as well, Frank N. von Hippel tells the Tehran Times in an exclusive interview.Following is the full text of the interview:
Q: Saudi Arabia started its research nuclear reactor inAbdulazizcity while it has not reached an agreement with the U.S. on nuclear activities. Some believe that this is a message from SA to the U.S. that it will advance its nuclear activities even withoutU.S.What do you think of this?
A: I am worried about Saudi Arabias interest in nuclear technologies. Part of its interest may be in generating electricity. But there are many ways to do that more cheaply today especially photovoltaics in Saudi Arabia. I think that part of the interest is due to the fact that some nuclear-power technologies can be dual use. They create a nuclear-weapon option. This is of course the cause of the controversy about Irans enrichment program.
Q: Saudi Arabia insists on having Uranium enrichment anditsreprocessing while the U.S. wants Gold Standard inits agreement with Riyadh which doesnt include enrichment and reprocessing. Based on 123 treaty, willU.S.finally give up to Riyadh demand?
A: The Trump Administration is divided on this. Some in the State Department believe strongly in nonproliferation and support the Gold Standard. Some in the Energy Department are more concerned that what remains of the U.S. nuclear-reactor supply industry (not much) could have a rare financial opportunity to sell reactors to Saudi Arabia. If those interested in supporting the U.S. nuclear industry prevail within the Administration, I think that there would be a strong challenge to a non-gold-standard 123 agreement in the House of Representatives, which will be controlled by the Democrats starting in January. Whether the Senate would join the House in a blocking action, I cant judge.
Q: Will Saudi Arabia accept a nuclear agreement withU.S.likethe one U.S. has signed with UAE?
A: Saudi Arabia indicates that it will not. There is some talk of a compromise under which Saudi Arabia would agree to be constrained as long as Iran is constrained by the JCPOA. Not being able to do what Iran can do naturally fuels a feeling of grievance in Saudi Arabia.This is one reason why my preference would be for Iran to turn its national enrichment program into a multinational program in which Saudi Arabia and other countries could join. Even better, in my view although probably even more politically difficult for Iran would be for Iran to abandon its uneconomic national enrichment program and lead a campaign to ban national enrichment programs worldwide in favor of multinational programs like Urenco. I have been urging this on the U.S. as well. Because our national enrichment program was privatized and then went bankrupt, the only enrichment plant in the United States today is owned by Urenco.
Q:U.S.knows very well that if it tries to include firm and serious terms in possible agreement with Saudi Arabia, this may result in Riyadhs tendency to have nuclear cooperation with Russia and China or South Korea. How will Washington solve this problem?
A: I am not an expert but I dont think that South Korea could sell nuclear power plants to Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia does not have a 123 agreement with the U.S. This is because much of South Koreas nuclear reactor design came from the U.S. The U.S. could not block Russia or China, however just as it was unable to block Russia from building the Bushehr reactors in Iran. I doubt that China or Russia would supply Saudi Arabia with enrichment or reprocessing technology but, if North Korea can do it, Saudi Arabia probably could as well. This is one reason I find Saudi Arabias refusal to agree to the Additional Protocol so worrisome. That suggests that it might try to hide some of its nuclear activities.
Q: Some say that the U.S. will never agree with granting a strategic concession like enrichment to Saudi Arabia that can changebalanceof power against Israel. What do you think of this?
A: Israel, obviously, has been campaigning against Irans enrichment program. I am not close enough to the debate to be aware of whether it is campaigning for a Gold Standard 123 Agreement for Saudi Arabia.
Of course, I dont think that Israeli or U.S. nuclear weapons are usable by sane leaderships. I worry, however, about leaderships that are not entirely sane. In the U.S. and Russia, where some nuclear weapons are on hair-trigger, I also worry about false warnings of incoming attack and, increasingly, about hackers.
Source:Tehran Times
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