The Pompeo article appeared on the day the secretary of state returned from his fact-finding trip to Saudi Arabia and then Turkey, where he reportedly listened to the audio of Jamal Khashoggis methodical execution by henchmen of Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), whowired $100 millionto the State Department coffers ahead of his visit, earmarked for Syrias stabilization.
Trump is now adopting the Saudi cover-up story blaming Khashoggis death on a brawl and exonerating the real mastermind, MbS, despite global skepticism. Praising the Saudis as a great ally that provides a counterbalance to Iran, Trump has demonstrated that he is less concerned about their heinous crime and more about their promised $110 billion arms purchases, an amount so exaggerated thatthe U.S. mediadeems it to befake news.The Machiavellian president may now slap the Saudis on the wrist with some nominal penalties, thus scoring on the moral clarity ground while utilizing the crisis to leverage more concessions from his murderous ally.
For its part, Tehran has opted to play curious bystander in the unfolding drama between Washington and Riyadh. Iran is basking in the fact that new U.S.-Saudi tensions for the moment,have de-centered the Iran threat. Saudi Arabia now faces a serious backlash in the international community leading to a boycott of the much-anticipated Davos in Desert economic summit. Tehran is calculating the extent of the damage, its longevity, and thedirect and indirect ramifications for Iran and the broader region. Intent on not giving any excuses to the other side to refocus attention on Tehran, Iranian officials have been tight-lipped about the Khashoggi affair. Neither the foreign ministry nor the office of the president has yet released an official statement.
The Iranian press, on the other hand, has devoted extensive coverage to the story. For instance, the conservativeKayhanhas published a front-page story on the latest report from Turkey that Khashoggi was sawed to death alive, drawing comparisons to the atrocities of Saudi-backed Islamic State terrorists. A number ofIranian pundits, on the other hand, have predicted a shake-up in the regional geopolitical landscape that might lead to a ceasefire and peace in Yemen, since the crisis has rendered Western complicity with the Saudi-led war in Yemen untenable. Not everyone concurs with this interpretation, however. Foreign policy expertSadegh Malekihas warned that Turkey has its own calculations in the Khashoogi case. Iran should be careful not to copy Ankaras attitude, he suggests, and should continue to pitch for normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.Turkeys recent omission of Iran in summits on Syriahas not gone well with Tehran.
Indeed, Tehran is not completely blind to the possibility of a new thaw in Iran-Saudi relations as a result of the new friction in U.S.-Saudi relations, which extends to OPEC and Trumps recent pressures on the cartel to lower prices and boost production (with at best moderate success). Indeed, this crisis of opportunity could help Iran extract gains from both sides. It could impress on Trump the need to reevaluate thecarte blanchegiven to the reckless Saudis, and it could hammer home with Riyadh the importance of peaceful co-existence in the Persian Gulf.
On the other hand, Tehran is skeptical that any damage to U.S.-Saudi ties will be enduring, given the extent of their strategic partnership. Even so, there is no denying the temporary shift of U.S. attention to Saudi misbehavior. This was the first time in many years, perhaps decades, when a U.S. secretary of state visited the region and failed to indulge in Iranophobia. Not only that, PompeosForeign Affairspiece ends with reference to the need for negotiations, which Tehran wont accept as long as Washington insists on regime change in so many words.
Trumps Iran policy may be working for now, but it has dim prospects. The international community has ostracized Trumps Saudi buddies, U.S. allies have rebuffed Washingtons unilateral sanctions, and countries such as India and Japan continue to purchase Iranian oil despite the threat of sanctions. The new sanctions regime is built on the fantastic delusion of international cooperation, which is not forthcoming. In fact, on his recent visit to Tehran, formerUK foreign secretary Jack Strawcalled the U.S. sanctions policy one of the administrations worst mistakes. Correcting this mistake is not in the cards unfortunately, but at least the Trump administrations most virulent Iranophobia is not for the moment at the foreground of U.S. policy as a result of this spat with the Saudi client state.
Kaveh L. Afrasiabi is aformer adviser to Irans nuclear negotiation team and the author of several books on Irans foreign affairs.
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