Sputnik - The result of the upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump is hard to predict, but there is potential for a thaw in relations between the two states and an in-depth discussion of the Iran nuclear deal, the Syrian and Ukrainian crises, the New START treaty and Pyongyang's denuclearization, politicians and analysts told Sputnik.




Putin and Trump are set to�meet in�Helsinki on�Monday, and according to�the Kremlin, are set to�discuss the most pressing issues on�the international agenda as�well as�bilateral relations. This meeting will be their first standalone bilateral meeting, preceded only by�talks on�the sidelines of�international summits.

In expectation of�the Trump-Putin summit, Trump spoke about�the historic event after�the NATO summit in�Brussels. Trump stated that he hoped that he would be able to�get along�with Russia and that he had been thanked by�the heads of�NATO member states for�meeting with�Putin. Trump added that Putin was his competitor and that he did not exclude becoming friends with�Putin one day.

Trump noted that on�the agenda of�the meeting would be the discussion of�the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, along�with the conflicts in�Syria and Ukraine, and alleged Russian meddling in�the 2016 US election.

Helsinki Prepares for�Warming Relations

Filippo Lombardi, a lawmaker from�the Swiss Christian Democratic People�s Party, stated that he hoped the meeting would bring together both Putin and Trump toward�an improved relationship between�the two leaders.
"It is difficult to�predict the outcome of�the meeting. It is important that they meet and discuss frankly and openly among�themselves. We know that the relationship between�countries depends not only on�personalities but�these two persons have the possibility to�affect political life, parliaments, governments so it could lead to�certain warming that will be beneficial for�Europe as�well," Lombardi said.


Mika Raatikainen, a member of�the Finnish parliament representing the Finns Party, stated that he had a positive outlook on�the summit, with�hopes that the leaders would not sidestep the biggest issues of�global concern.
"I personally wish that they come closer on�some big issues. I have a positive attitude. It is always good when there is a discussion between�the leaders of�the world," Raatikainen said.


Raatikainen added that Helsinki had successfully prepared for�the summit in�terms of�security.
"In terms of�security, I have background in�the policy and I am fully confident that the Finnish police can take care of [the summit]," Raatikainen stressed.


The Finnish capital has been preparing for�the upcoming Putin-Trump summit with�all flights, excluding commercial ones, to�be grounded from�July 15 to�July 17, which will be close to�the Helsinki city center and near�the Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, according to�the Finnish police.

Finland�s Yle national public broadcasting company reported on�Wednesday that Finnish police, emergency and medical services, border guard, defense forces, and customs will be connected by�the nationwide public safety network, VIRVE.

Raatikainen noted that the summit would be good for�local business, along�with restaurants and hotels, due to�the number of�journalists covering the meeting.

According to�the Finnish Foreign Ministry�s director of�communications, Vesa Hakkinen, as�of Wednesday, the ministry had received 1,400 requests for�journalist accreditation, excluding the leaders� journalist pools.

Nuclear Consensus Out of�Reach, New START Treaty in�Focus

Peter Hayes, the executive director of�the Nautilus Institute for�Security and Sustainability, stated that a discussion on�the denuclearization of�the Korean peninsula would likely ensue at�the meeting between�Trump and Putin, but�that it would not lead to�any concrete further steps on�the issue�s resolution.
"[Putin and Trump] are unlikely to�reach any further agreements concerning cost-burden sharing and a role for�Russia in�picking up�the tab for�denuclearization or the rebuilding of�the DPRK [North Korean] economy; and they will likely agree to�disagree on�the extent to�which Russia's implementation of�sanctions on�the DPRK conforms to�UNSC resolution and Trump's preferences," Hayes stated.


Hayes noted that both presidents were likely to�brand as�constructive the result of�June's Singapore summit, during�which Trump signed an agreement with�North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that requires Pyongyang to�denuclearize in�exchange for�a freeze on�the US-South Korean military drills and eventual sanctions relief.
"Putin and Trump are likely to�agree that it is good that Trump responded positively to�Kim Jong-un's initiative to�meet and resolve hostility and achieve denuclearization of�Korean peninsula," Hayes said.


Putin has previously expressed the need to�resolve the tensions on�the Korean peninsula through�peaceful means, and urged all involved states in�North Korean denuclearization to�work on�the development of�security guarantees.

Hayes added that it was possible for�the meeting to�result in�plans for�further multilateral high-level dialogue on�North Korean denuclearization, however, this might be impossible due to�the pressure that Trump is facing from�the Administration and the Republican Party to�take such a cooperative stance toward�Russia.

Matthew Bunn, a professor of�Practice at�Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of�Government and member of�the board of�the Belfer Center for�Science and International Affairs, stated that any cooperation, such as�an agreement to�extend the New START Treaty would be difficult to�achieve with�the current state of�US-Russia relations.
"US-Russian relations are currently in�a poisonous and dangerous state, making all forms of�cooperation difficult � including extending New START. Both countries have legitimate complaints against�the other," Bunn said.


A senior US administration official confirmed to�reporters on�July 5 that the New START Treaty, set to�expire in�February 2021, would likely be on�the agenda of�the Putin-Trump meeting.

Tarja Cronberg, a distinguished associate fellow at�the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, stated that the previously outlined diverging positions on�the Joint Comprehensive Plan of�Action (JCPOA) would limit what could be achieved at�the Putin-Trump summit.
"The topic may be mentioned but�it will not be one of�the main points on�the Agenda. The Russian and the US views diverge too much, Russia wants to�keep the deal, the United States has exited the deal," Cronberg said.


In May, Trump announced that the United States would exit the JCPOA that was signed by�Russia, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The accord stipulated the gradual lifting of�anti-Iran sanctions in�exchange for�Tehran maintaining a peace-orientated nuclear program.

Putin reaffirmed his commitment to�the JCPOA earlier on�Thursday in�a meeting with�the Iranian supreme leader�s top adviser for�International Affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati. The remaining signatories of�the JCPOA have also expressed their commitment to�the deal.

Lord Alfred Dubs, a member of�the UK House of�Lords, stated that he was hopeful that Putin would be able to�convey the importance of�the JCPOA to�Trump at�the summit.
"Putin should tell Trump that Iran deal is an important one. It is against�Russian and western interests. I hope Mr. Putin will be firm on�that and address this issue with�Trump," Dubs said.


Cronberg suggested that a discussion on�the JCPOA might result in�Trump agreeing to�allow certain Russian companies to�avoid US sanctions on�Iran.
"So, unfortunately, I do not think consensus will be tried nor reached on�any major aspects of�the deal. A possible point [of consensus] could be the US granting a specific waiver from�the sanctions to�one or several of�the large Russian companies working both with�the US and Iran. But not likely and only if Putin makes a special request," Cronberg said.


US Secretary of�State Mike Pompeo remarked on�Sky News Arabia that several countries that ask for�relief from�US sanctions on�Iran�s oil exports could be granted relief, which will come into�force on�November 4.

Bunn stated that he wished that both Trump and Putin, despite�any existing disagreements, would be able to�overcome them in�the name of�nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.
"Even during�the depths of�Cold War, when we were locked in�a global struggle against�each other, we saw that while we had many conflicts we also had common interests, and our nations cooperated to�negotiate nuclear arms control and build the global nuclear nonproliferation regime; we should be able to�do the same today," Bunn said.


Ukraine, Syria on�the Docket

Congressman Christopher Smith, the head of�the US delegation to�the Parliamentary Assembly of�the Organization for�Security and Co-operation in�Europe, expressed hope that during�the summit there will be advances on�the settlement of�conflicts in�Ukraine and Syria.
"I have hope that some very good, concrete agreements will accrue to�me and the dialogue will lead to�some movement, from�our point of�view, on�Ukraine and Syria," Smith said.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at�a press conference on�July 4 that southern Syria would likely be discussed at�the summit.

Lavrov added that Russia had fulfilled its obligations under�the agreement on�the southern de-escalation zone and that it urged its partners, including the United States, to�likewise fulfill their commitments under�the agreement to�set up�de-escalation zones in�Syria.

On June 29, US media reported that Trump would be looking to�clinch a deal with�Putin that will stipulate US military withdrawal from�Syria.

Where Ukraine is concerned, Smith stated that he anticipated that Trump and Putin would address the implementation of�the Minsk agreements and the potential for�the deployment of�UN peacekeepers to�Ukraine, which Putin had previously expressed support for.
"On Ukraine, my hope will be that Minsk agreements be fully and faithfully implemented so it will be a ceasefire that is durable and perhaps a deployment of�peacekeeping forces under�the hospices of�the United Nations. There are some 90,000 UN peacekeepers deployed around�the world. I hope that coming out�of that summit will be movement in�that area," Smith underlined.


Smith added that while discussing Syria, he hoped Trump would raise with�Putin the issue of�humanitarian access for�agencies to�areas affected by�the conflict.

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