23 Nov 2024
Saturday 27 January 2018 - 17:51
Story Code : 291595

Turkey: 'Olive Branch' of war

Sputnik- Turkeys Operation Olive Branch was recently commenced with the stated intent of destroying what Ankara believes to be Kurdish terrorists in the northwestern Syrian region of Afrin.

The NATO member earlier warned that it would be forced tointervene there inresponse tothe existential threat that the US' plans fordeploying a 30,000-strong "Border Security Force" pose toits security, asTurkey thinks that this military grouping's Syrian PYD-YPG Kurdish leader is actually an offshoot ofthe terrorist-designated PKK. From Turkey's perspective, the US is helping tocreate a "terror corridor" all alongits southern borderland, one whose western-most extension is dangerously just a few dozen kilometers fromthe Eastern Mediterranean and could tantalizingly tempt the Syrian Kurds tomake a land grab againstTurkey's maritime Hatay Province sometime inthe future.

From the way that Turkey presents it, "Operation Olive Branch" was a no-brainer' and should enjoy broad international support, butthat's actually not the case atall. Syria has resolutely rejected what it has described asan "invasion" ofits territory, one which President Assad boldly said is meant tosupport "terrorists", not defeat them. Even Turkey's Astana partner Iran has asked it todiscontinue its operation, and Ankara somewhat expectedly it must be said can't even count onthe support ofits Washington mutual defense ally. Not only that, butRussia has been reticent inits stance towardsthe latest developments, not exactly condemning them butat the same time also refusing toopenly endorse them. Moscow's delicate "balancing" act probably has a lot todo withits multifaceted regional interests, particularly those withAnkara and Damascus, which make it extremely difficult forRussia totake sides.

As the Afrin campaign finishes its first week, conflicting reports have predictably emerged aboutthe number ofcivilian casualties and the military progress being made, withit being hard todiscern truth fromfiction inthe murkier-than-usual fog ofwar that's settled overthis isolated corner ofthe region. This means that any analytical conversation aboutthis topic is better suited todiscussing motivations, reactions, and forecasts thannitty-gritty details such asmountaintop captures and battlefield deaths, which are undoubtedly important butat this time nothing more thana game of "he says, she says". The overall strategic dynamics atplay, however, remain much more relevant if one aspires tograsp a comprehensive picture ofwhat's happening, where it's headed, and why.

Andrew Korybko is joined byStevenSahiounie, Syrian-American journalist,SerapBalaman, Turkish political commentator.
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