Sputnik - Three members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates � have severed diplomatic relations with Doha in response to allegations revelations Qatar finances terrorist groups. Egypt, the Maldives and Yemen have followed suit. However, a regional expert has told Sputnik the move is be a smokescreen.





Bahrain was�the first to�cut�ties, citing Qatar's "insistence" on "destabilizing security and stability" within�its borders, and "interference" in�the country' affairs. Not long after, Abu Dhabi, Cairo�and�Riyadh issued similar statements.

Saudi Arabia has canceled the�broadcasting license of�Al Jazeera (funded by�Doha) and has begun closing its offices in�the country�� and there are suggestions other countries in�the region may follow suit. The Kingdom went one further than�its peers, however, in�suspending all air and sea communication with�Qatar, ordering all Qatari nationals leave its territory within�a fortnight and banning all Qataris (save�for "pilgrims")�from�entering the country.

?Observers with�even a cursory understanding of�Middle East politics may splutter at�Saudi Arabia's apparent concern over�Qatar's covert terrorism funding, given the Kingdom is notorious for�financing the dissemination of�Wahhabism�� the extremist strain of�Islam driving most of�the world's prominent Muslim terror groups�� and it is a struggle to�name a single Islamic extremist faction that has not received funding from�Riyadh in�some form.

However, Babak�Mohammadzadeh, a PhD researcher at�the University of�Cambridge's Department of�Politics and International Studies, suggests the en-masse ostracism of�Qatar has much more to�do with�long-held concerns among�the GCC over�Qatar's "independent" approach to�foreign policy.
"Qatar has always pursued a more independent line, cultivating ties across�the region and involving itself in�places such as�Lebanon and Yemen. The way the country relates to�Iran has also produced rampant concerns in�Riyadh�� Saudi Arabia and others are keen to�control Qatar in�this regard. The traditional GCC line on�Iran has been that there needs to�be strong opposition to�Iran's aggressive pursuits across�the region, but�Qatar has so far been unwilling to�submit to�that. This is all aimed at�bringing Qatar to�heel," Mr. Mohammadzadeh told Sputnik.


?Moreover, he believes Riyadh's use of�the term "terrorism" and related phraseology is deliberately designed to�cloud its real motives�� namely, its specific geopolitical aims in�the region, particularly those relating to�Iran. As such, whenever Saudi spokespeople talk of�terrorism it's important to�be "critical and cautious"�� and he warns against�employing the terminology advocated and espoused by�the Kingdom.


?Saudi Arabia is a close ally of�the US�� a toxic marriage reaffirmed by�a May visit to�the Kingdom by�President Donald Trump, which inaugurated the largest single arms sales deal in�United States history�� raising questions about�whether the US will support or oppose the regional move. Nonetheless, as�Qatar is likewise a close US ally in�the region, it's questionable whether American support for�the Saudi-led actions will be reflexive.
"Trump's visit to�Saudi Arabia was a major motivator behind�the actions being taken against�Qatar currently. As he has so strongly backed anti-Iran rhetoric, Saudi Arabia and their close allies felt emboldened to�take these unprecedented steps. Still, it's hard to�say though whether the US will support them. Rex Tillerson has said there will be no material difference to�how the US and Qatar cooperate militarily as�a result of�this move," Mr. Mohammadzadeh added.


US reticence to�fully support Riyadh's actions is made particularly likely given Qatar hosts the sprawling Al Udeid Air Base, the US' largest base in�the region and a major jumping off�point for�US air force actions in�the region. Qatar will, Mr. Mohammadzadeh believes, be particularly keen to�maintain this structure, given it serves as�the country's most important security guarantees.

What is likewise clear is the impact on�Qatar of�this shift could be catastrophic. The country is scheduled to�host the World Cup in�2022�� and if the diplomatic crisis is not resolved, it would obviously have profound consequences for�the tournament. Moreover, it will deleteriously affect businesses working across�the Gulf. If Saudi plans to�ban and remove all Qatari nationals from�the country within�a fortnight materialize, Qatar risks becoming "increasingly isolated," Mr. Mohammadzadeh warned.

"This country is dependent on�many international linkages to�survive�� its non-oil imports go through�Saudi airspace and Saudi-administered waterways. It will certainly be problematic for�the country to�maintain itself. In terms of�other regional consequences, Qatar's isolation could have consequences for�the Iranian nuclear deal. Oman and Qatar have had an important say in�how this deal was negotiated�� it may cause Iran to�change course," he concluded.