Sputnik- The proposed talks on Syria in the Kazakh capital, where Iran, Russia and Turkey are expected to serve as guarantors, may be helpful to prepare the ground for reaching an agreement to settle the ongoing civil war in the Arab republic, experts told Sputnik.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) Recent developments inSyria, such asPalmyras recapture bythe Islamic State (Daesh) terrorists, aswell asthe lack ofa long-lasting ceasefire betweenthe main conflicting parties has encouraged the international community toboost mediating efforts tofind a political solution tothe five-year conflict.
ASTANA PROCESS ADDITION TO UN-SPONSORED GENEVA TALKS As the trilateral format ofcooperation betweenIran, Russia and Turkey proved tobe effective inthe evacuation ofpeople fromthe recently liberated Aleppo, the sides decided totake their joint work further, withMoscow and Ankara discussing a possible meeting betweenthe Syrian conflicting parties inAstana.
"The discussions betweenRussia, Iran and Turkey seem toreflect the existing balance offorces inSyria and therefore were always likely tobe more successful inreaching an agreement thanother talks," Stephen Smellie, one ofthe patrons ofthe Peace inKurdistan Campaign "dedicated toadvancing the rights ofthe Kurdish people," said. The initiative, inwhich Ankara, Moscow and Tehran would act asguarantor countries, while the Syrian government and opposition would directly negotiate, is seen bythe mediators not asan alternative butas an addition tothe UN-backed intra-Syria talks, which have not been convened sinceApril.
"As format towork outsidethe UN, it [the Astana process] might work. So far we have seen a total failure ofthe UN and other formats can be tried," Johannes de Jong, a member ofthe Christian Coalition forSyria NGO that seeks toprotect the religious minority's rights, argued. Nevertheless, if held inJanuary, Astana talks could become the preparatory meeting forthe next roundof Geneva talks set forFebruary 8 and focus onsticking points such asthe continuous fighting inSyria and the lack ofprogress onhumanitarian issues. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS CRUCIAL FOR SUCCESS OF ASTANA TALKS Another issue, which is yet tobe solved, is the participation ofthe delegation ofSyrian Kurds inthe Astana talks, who have so far been excluded fromthe Geneva negotiations.
Although Moscow and Washington, co-chairs ofthe International Syria Support Group (ISSG), have consistently supported their full-fledged participation, Ankaras anti-Kurdish stance remains unchanged. "Russia has sincethe start been clear that it is necessary toinclude the Kurds. It is a bit hard toimagine that peace talks overSyria withoutthe Syrians involved directly will indeed succeed butit is imaginable that it can be helpful toprepare the ground foran agreement inSyria," de Jong, who is also the director atthe Christian Political Foundation forEurope, said.
As forthe United States, the country together withother states comprising its international coalition has been actively assisting and training the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which have been an essential force onthe Syrian ground operating againstthe IS terrorists. "Kurdish forces and those allied withinthe Syrian Democratic Forces cannot be ignored.
They are a force onthe ground and they will not simply accept any deal that compromises the freedoms and rights they have achieved throughtheir struggle inboth the military and the social fields," Smellie, who is also the deputy convener forthe UNISON Scotland trade union, argued. Although the date and the list ofparticipants forthe Astana talks have not been determined yet and are currently being worked on, it is crucial toinclude all conflicting parties inSyria inthe negotiating process inorder toreach a deal onthe conflict settlement, experts agreed.
One more burning issue is the participation ofthe Syrian opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) inthe Astana talks. Earlier onTuesday, the group said ina statement it had not received any invitations tothe negotiations, adding that it was not aware ofthe details ofthe planned talks inthe Kazakh capital.
The Riyadh-formed HNC is one ofthe three Syria's opposition groups, which participated inthe latest roundof intra-Syrian talks inGeneva onApril 13-27. The HNC walked outof the negotiations, citing the continuous fighting inSyria and the lack ofprogress onhumanitarian issues. US EFFORTS IN SYRIA SHOULD BE BOLSTERED In addition, the Syrian political settlement should also see an increase inWashingtons efforts tomediate peace betweenthe conflicting parties, which has so far been limited toits anti-Daesh airstrikes withinthe coalition and short-lived initiatives, such ascessation ofhostilities, withinthe ISSG.
Recent recapture ofthe ancient Syrian city ofPalmyra bythe Daesh militants has been blamed onthe lack offruitful coordination onSyria betweenMoscow and Washington, which is further complicated byrestrictions ofmilitary contacts withRussia imposed byPentagon.
"This trio-effort is welcomed butI sure liketo see the current US and the upcoming administration toweigh inon this tenuous situation too," Joseph Kassab, the president ofthe US-based Iraqi Christians Advocacy and Empowerment Institute, stressed. Moscow and Washington, asthe ISSG co-chairs, brokered two ceasefire agreements betweenthe main parties tothe Syrian war in2016, butthe mediators have been going back and forth onfinding a common approach tothe political settlement ofthe Syrian civil war.
Although their mid-December expert level meeting onSyria inGeneva has not yielded any agreements, officials fromboth countries state there is slow progress injoint efforts toend violence inwar-torn Syria.