Tuesday 8 December 2015 - 16:43
Story Code : 191848
Erdogan stands anxious as Russian counter-response could come any time
1. The consequences of Turkish audacious action of shooting down a Russian warplane in the Syrian airspace was sensitive enough to be apprehended by Tukeys army. And exactly because of this reason, it is impossible to buy the idea that Erdogan's Army has acted arbitrarily without coordinating with any influential power.
Although Turkey is a NATO member, with a looking back at the NATOs background, specifically its performance in Ukraines crisis, it would be clear that NATO is not the intended influential power for Turkey. NATOs chary stance in dealing with the tension and inviting the two sides leaders to show restraint have signaled that it was not possible for President Erdogan to target the Russian jet just relying on NATOs support.
United positions of America and standing firmly by Turkey have made it clear that the US has been aware of the targeting and Washington was coordinated with. But the fact is that after failure of US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US strategy is no longer based on direct involvement, thereby, it can be said that the Americans would not genuinely and operationally have Erdogans back, and actually he would be left on his own.
2. Some analysts suggest that the SU-24 incident has nothing to do with Erdogan and it has been carried out by the Turkish army. But there are obvious evidences invalidating this speculation. It is right that there are differences between Erdogans government and the Turkish army, but in this division the radical side is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan while the moderate side is the army. The army finds Erdogans policies in relation to the Syrian crisis wrong, therefore, considering this, how could it be possible for the Turkish army to act against Damascus and its ally Moscow, despite the Turkish presidents opposition? Trying to raise hustling and bustling, some sides are attempting to secure a safe side for Erdogan, while he, by insisting on his policies, is closing all the windows for the ways out of the crisis.
3. The evidences indicate that Turkey is really scared of the consequences of its military action against Russia. Successive position change from Turkey reveals the depth of this concern. While Erdogan immediately after downing the Russian jet described shooting down the SU-24 as a right job and it was done in line with Turkeys rights and for the countrys security, Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish Prime Minister, claimed one day later that his countrys air defenses had failed to recognize the downed warplanes nationality. Then, Erdogan said that he made an effort to talk to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, Putin has not returned my call, Erdogan claimed. Just two days later, President Erdogan said that he was deeply saddened by the downing of the Russian jet. Davutoglu followed that his country would not respond similarly as the Russian retaliatory measures. The fact that Turkey quickly expressed apology over the incident shows that Ankara was highly concerned about the consqences.
4. Just unlike Turkeys hasty and fickle behavior following the incident, the Russian government took a series of anti-Turkish measures, showing that the Russian leaders were in control and had administrative capabilities. We received a stab in the back from the accomplices of terrorism, said Putin in his initial reaction to downing of the jet. Putins reference was to the agreement about air operations over Syria signed between the Russian and Turkish governments on September 7, 2015, dubbed Open Skies Treaty. Under the treaty the Russian fighters flew in the Syrian skies. So, Tukeys justification that Russian jet violated the Turkish airspace for some seconds or minutes was invalid. President Putin, on the other hand, directed his remarks to the issue of the US betrayal, because Moscow had already informed Washington of its flight paths and the types of its fighter jets operating in Syria. This issue determines both the US-Turkeys coordination concerning downing of the Russian SU-24,and also Putins audiences.
In another move, Russia extended its fighters flights northward, specifically northwestern Syria to prove that it was not paying attention to Turkeys sensitivities. Earlier, Ankara had expressed concerns about Russia making flights over Syrias northwestern regions, calling it a factor speeding up the flow of the Idlib provinces refugees who moved towards Turkish southern territories. Therefore, the Russians were taking into account, to large extent, Turkeys concerns. But following the Turkish action, Moscow has set aside this security consideration. So, in the Turkish security circles, the criticism has risen against Erdogans measure.
Still another move made by Russia was announcing a set of crippling economic sanctions against Erdogans government. Moscow has said that it would cut off gas supplies to Turkey. The Russian measures come while Turkey is dependent by %60 to Russias gas, and on the other hand, Ankara has the winter season ahead which could put heavy pressure on the government. Additionally, Kremlin has suspended a considerable portion of activity of about 2000 Turkish companies active in Russia. Some of these firms are active in tourism, being responsible for arranging for about three to four million Russian tourists visiting Turkey every year.
Putins government has announced that it would wait for Dumas act to punish Turkey militarily. The Russian Dumas chief has asserted that they wanted Russias counteraction. Dragging the Russian parliament (Duma) into the dispute on the one hand upgrades the Russias possible military response level to a Russian national reaction scale and on the other hand exposes the assailant Turkish government to excessive anxiety.
5. Russia would certainly respond to Turkey militarily, because the economic sanctions, which in their place act like a double-edged sword, could not compensate the Turkish security, as the Russian armys conduct at the first day of the incident signaled that a Russian reaction was to ensue. The Russian leaders have said that they were waiting for Turkeys apology. At the same time, although the Turkish senior officials have expressed acceding remarks, they did not apologize to Moscow officially. Turkeys apology would mean accepting the responsibility of mistake made in shooting down the Russian jet. Such an acceptance would bring forth special consequences to Ankara, entitling Russia to prompt counter-response and ask for compensation from Turkeys government. Taking such a responsibility could undermine Erdogans position, putting all the Turkish costs of conflict with Russia on Erdogans shoulder.
6. After the incident, the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone over northern Syria has been compounded further. Likely this is the heaviest price paid by Turkey in the Russian warplanes incident because over the course of past three years, Turkey has persistently insisted on the need for establishing a no-fly zone over Syrias north and it for times disagreed with the US over the case. Watching the circumstances on the ground in northern regions and presence of different groups which are all armed, Washington estimated the no-fly zone proposal as impossible. In the wake of Paris terrorist attacks, the Americans, all of a sudden, have talked about necessity of a no-fly zone over Syria. The Turkish-American shared purpose of such a plan was to pave the way for ground movement of the militants close to Turkey and the US armies, and on the other hand, to provide a more secure position for the opposition forces loyal to them inside Syria. Downing the Russian bomber has transformed the conditions of northern Syria, throwing a wrench in the no-fly zone plan, making it more difficult to establish. The fact is that while the American officials have talked about possibility of establishing the separating zone, but the hurdles which already existed and caused US-Turkeys differences over establishing the safe zone are still sanding.
By Alwaght
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