Does Washington really want an agreement with Tehran on Iranian nuclear program? Radio Sputnik is going into the details of the latest P5+1 talks with Lukasz Kulesa in London and Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi in Tehran.The extension ofdeadline inIranian nuclear program negotiations has become one ofthe key news ofthe week, giving rise toa whole range ofdifferent opinions, views and guesses. Yet, there are some moments which are still difficult toexplain.
Three days beforethe November, 24 deadline US President Barak Obama extended the Iranian oil embargo, stopping short ofintroducing new economic sanctions againstTeheran.
The move has hardly helped the negotiating parties. Iran has been insisting onthe lifting ofeconomic sanctions inreturn fora greater flexibility inits nuclear program issue.
"Iran has lived upto its obligations underthe interim agreement and its nuclear program has not only been frozen, it has been reversed, Dianne Feinstein, the Chair ofthe US Senate Intelligence Committee, said. Today, Iran is further away fromacquiring a nuclear weapon thanbefore negotiations began.
However, instead oflifting the sanctions, the US republicans are eager tointroduce new penalties againstIran. "I can guarantee you if Congress passes new unilateral sanctions, the Iranians aren't going tobecome more accommodating. It'll be quite the opposite," George Perkovich, vice president forstudies atthe Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, told AFP.
Well, hawkish lawmakers view it differently and are likely topress formore.
SaysLukasz Kulesa, Research Director, European Leadership Network:
Well, it was not a big surprise that all the sides could not agree tofinalize the deal byNovember 24th. There were simply too many technical details. And also, the political situation was too complicated tomake it ontime. What is a bit surprising is that there is quite a long time forthe extension, untilJuly next year. So, that would suggest that the sides are not ata short distance fromthe agreement, butthere are still big gaps intheir positions.
And this is worrying. This is very worrying, because, I think, that was the optimal time toconclude the deal. It would still be a couple ofmonths forthe US beforethe new Congress convenes, which will include many opponents ofthe deal. So, it would have been a good time forthe US toconclude this deal and then have time todefend it, and toshow everybody that it works. I think it would be a good time forIran, sincethat would be a major boost forthe Rouhani presidency.
Right now, we are not privy toall the details ofthe negotiations, butit seems that it wouldnt be necessarily easier tohave this deal next year, thanit was this year.
When you are looking atthe position ofthe US, the mere fact that they took a decision toextend the term ofsanctions againstIran inthe middle ofthe talks, virtually, do we need tounderstand that they are not exactly keen onreaching this agreement?
Lukasz Kulesa: Regarding the position ofthe US, actually, no new sanctions were introduced. And there was an attempt inthe US Congress tointroduce new sanctions, and it was blocked. So, they are merely extending the sanctions that are already inplace. And bythe way, the same goes forthe EU countries. The sanctions are more or less still inplace. So, what is extended are just these pretty modest, relieved sanctions, which was agreed withIran before. So, I dont really see any break ofthis interim agreement bythe sides ofthe P5+1. And luckily, I dont see any sign that the agreement is being breached byIran. So, this is an optimistic thing that all the sides are still keeping their previous commitments.
But what can be gained inthis couple ofmonths. It seems that right now one ofthe major obstacles is the number ofcentrifuges and the capability ofIran todo enrichment ofuranium. Right now the Iranians want tokeep a high number ofcentrifuges running. The P5+1, including Russia, their official position is that the Iranian capability should be limited. Maybe this couple ofmonths would be used tofind a compromise formula, which is belowwhat the Iranians want butstill aboveof the P5+1.
Specifically aboutRussia, there might be an important part forMoscow toplay, because Russia has recently signed an additional agreement withIran aboutdelivering the new reactors forthe nuclear power plants tothis country. So, that might be a way topersuade the Iranians that they dont need toproduce their own fuel, butthat Russia can produce this fuel and deliver it tothe Iranians.
And finally, when we are trying toget a better feeling ofthe atmosphere ofthe negotiations, do you think that it has been changing ina way?
Lukasz Kulesa: Well, everybody is telling that the atmosphere ofthe negotiations is very much business-like, that all the sides managed toget a better knowledge oftheir counterparts and there isnt that much ofthe ideological hostility betweenIran and the US.
But, ofcourse, these are the talks ofthe diplomats and there are forces withinIran that dont really want this understanding, that would liketo keep the confrontation withthe US going. There certainly are forces inthe US that dont want this deal, that are feeling that the US is giving away too much.
And finally, there are countries that are not directly present atthese negotiations, buthave an important role. I mean Israel, I mean Saudi Arabia. These countries are putting a strong pressure not only onthe US, butalso onother countries withinP5+1 group, tomake sure that their interests would be safeguarded. And ofcourse, they dont want tohave an agreement that gives Iran too much space. So, withinthe negotiations framework itself the atmosphere is apparently pretty good, butof course it doesnt mean that the diplomats would make concessions that are contrary totheir national interests.
SaysProfessor Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Tehran University:
The most important problem is that the US has so far been unable tochange its policy and attitude towardsIran ina fundamental way. The conditions were ripe foran agreement and the new administration inIran underPresident Rouhani has been very flexible. And this is something that even the Western leaders have admitted onnumerous occasions. But the US basically failed toshow any real flexibility and the ability toaccept Irans right withinthe framework ofinternational law.
From the Iranian perspective, that is largely because the US really has yet torecognize the post-revolutionary Iran. So, unless the US comes toterms withthe reality onthe ground inIran, I dont think that we are going tosee an agreement any time soon. As President Rouhani has specifically said Iran will not accept nuclear apartheid.
So, inorder foran agreement totake place the US has toaccept Irans full right tohave a peaceful nuclear program and toenrich uranium aswell, and they must remove all the sanctions ultimately. And the Iranians ontheir behalf are willing tobe asflexible aspossible, tobe asopen asnecessary toanswer any questions that the Western countries may have. But real problem lies inWashington.
Some experts tend todescribe the outcome asa failure. However, we know that Iran and Russia believe that a progress has been made. What is your take?
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi: Some progress has been made, withouta doubt. And what is important tonote is that it is clear that the international community is not onthe side ofthe US inall this. Russia has had a very progressive role, inthe sense that it has fully accepted Irans right and it wants an agreement, and so does China. Both ofthem have played a constructive role. The Iranians feel that some progress has been made, butthere are very serious stumbling blocks that remain. And it is forthe US tomake a decision.
The French, the British and the Germans are declining powers, and the Iranians notice that they are really unwilling totake a decision independent ofthe US. They will look tothe US ultimately and see what the Americans are saying. So, the problem really lies betweenIran and the US. The US cant expect toimpose the restrictions onIran permanently or long-term restrictions inany way or form. That goes againstIrans right withinthe framework ofthe NPT and the IAEA. The Iranians are willing toslow downsome elements ofits nuclear program inorder tobuild trust. They are willing tobe flexible inorder tocreate confidence, butthey are not willing atall tosacrifice their right.
It seems that the Americans are still hoping that somehow the Iranians will capitulate and forfeit their right, and that is simply not going tohappen. But the Iranians feel that time is ontheir side, because the US is facing increasing problems athome because ofthe economy and social difficulties, and abroad because ofAmericas simultaneous aggressive posturing towardsRussia, towardsChina and towardsIran, and also because ofthe disaster that the Americans have created withtheir unholy alliance withSaudi Arabia and Turkey that has led tothe rise ofthe ISIL and other extremists.
So, the US needs Iran and the Iranians recognize that. The Iranians feel that, ultimately, the Americans are going tohave tocome toan agreement withIran, otherwise, if they dont, the international community will begin tomore seriously reconsider their policies and countries will start ignoring the US sanctions and the US threats more and more.
What could be the logic behindthe US moves? In the middle ofthe negotiations, butthey are extending the term ofsanctions againstIran
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi: It is difficult toreally understand the logic ofthe US attimes. But there is a number ofimportant elements. One is the Israeli lobby. The Israelis are adamant tokeep the region fromsettling its problems, fromsolving its problems. And so, infact, it has been pressuring the US not tocome toan agreement withIran. The Saudis, too, have policies very similar toIsrael and they are very closely aligned onmany key issues, such aswith regards tothe Palestinians and Syria, and Iraq, and Iran. They, too, do not want an agreement and they are trying toprevent the US and its allies frommoving towardsa rapprochement.
Another problem is that the US President is a very weak president. He is unable toreally make serious decisions. This is what the Iranians have experienced overthe pastfew years, even when he didnt have a problem withCongress, because uptill now it was inthe hands ofthe Democrats. But the US Government is a weak government. And now withthe Republicans incharge ofthe House and the Senate, it seems that the US going tomove intoa period where the decision making is even more difficult.
And ingeneral, it is also linked tothe arrogance ofempires. The US is still unwilling toaccept the fact that Iran is a sovereign and independent country, and it will not accept the American hegemony. And the more the US pushes Iran, the more it pushes Russia and the more it pushes China, actually it helps tounite these countries and other non-Western countries, and it moves them closer towardseach other. So, the US is hurting itself more thananyone else throughits misguided policies.
Which means that all those factors would hardly change bythe 1st ofJuly 2015, which is the new deadline. So, how do you see the negotiations are going todevelop? Do you think that the parties would still be able tocome toan agreement or the deadline would be moved again?
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi: It is hard tosay atthis stage. If there is some major change inthe region forexample, the Saudi King is old and very frail, and could die atany moment. And the ISIL is the threat toSaudi Arabia. If something happens toSaudi Arabia, that would, I think, change the American calculation very quickly. At the moment I dont see a reason why there will a comprehensive agreement, because I dont believe the Americans have the will or the sense, or the maturity tosign such an agreement atthis stage. But if there is no agreement, there may be a further extension.
But more importantly, countries likeIran and China are moving much closer towardseach other. The Chinese President is coming toIran intwo or three months. Iran and Russia are moving closer towardseach other. Russia also faces the American sanctions. This is something that concerns China too. So, these countries, alongwith other countries then would be thinking aboutalternative means fortrade and tostart ignoring the Western monetary system and institutions, and creating the alternatives ones, so that the US could no longer hurt the countries throughsanctions.
By Sputnik News
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