Do you remember South Lebanon? All of Lebanon is now South Lebanon.These were the words of a senior Israeli official in a closed-door meeting in Jerusalem on Tuesday, just hours before Israel warplanes attacked a truck convoy suspected of carrying advancedweapons systemsfrom Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It wasnt hard to figure out that something was brewing. Two days earlier, the Israelis had redeployedtwo Iron Dome anti-missile batteriesfrom its embattled southern front to the countrys north, near Lebanon. Coincidentally, journalists were also buzzing aboutmarathon meetingsbetween Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his senior military and intelligence planners.
At the time, however, all eyes were on Syria. And understandably so. The security of President Bashar Assads chemical weapons, the rise of al-Qaeda groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, and the threat of general instability in war-torn Syria all threatened the quiet that has prevailed on Israels shared border since the Yom Kippur War of 1973.
In other words, Syria was not exactly a red herring, but it distracted from Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah faction has armed itself to the teeth and is preparing for another opportunity to tangle with Israel.
The last battle, in the summer of 2006, was brutal for both sides. Hezbollah fired an estimated4,000 rocketsinto Israeli population centers, killing 159 citizens. Israel responded with some 12,000 sorties, killing some 1,200 Lebanese. Though Israel delivered several debilitating blows to Hezbollah, the war ended the Iranian proxy still firmly entrenched in Lebanon.
Today, by leveraging its military power in the Lebanese political arena, Hezbollah is now in control of the government. In the process, it has spread its influence from beyond Lebanons south and the eastern Beqaa Valley. Indeed, the Israelis warn that Hezbollah has installed rocket silos and weapons caches throughout the country.
The exact number of rockets in Hezbollahs hands right now is not known. Conservative estimates indicate that its around 60,000. And Israels military establishment is keenly aware that its not a question of if Hezbollah will use them, its a question of when.
In all likelihood, whenever Iran wishes to make war in retaliation for Israels recent air strikes against the convoy in Syria, in response to a perceived threat against the Iranian nuclear program, or for any other reason Hezbollah will likely be the actor to prompt it.
Israelis say that this war could be very costly in terms damage to Israel, particularly if longer-range rockets target Haifa, Tel Aviv, and other high-density cities. But the Israelis are also nervous about how the war will impact Lebanon. Given the way Hezbollah has reportedly squirreled away its ordnance in heavily populated areas, even Israeli surgical strikes will almost certainly yield mass casualties. Lebanese citizens are reportedly aware of this, and the anxiety level is rising there, too.
The world needs to be prepared for the next war with Lebanon, the aforementioned senior official told me in Jerusalem. It could be a very bad war.
Until now, with troubling news coming out of Iran, Syria, Gaza and elsewhere, the Lebanon front has been largely ignored. But beware. A new conflict with Israel and Lebanon may be looming. And this conflict could erupt in a flash.
By The Globe and Mail
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