SHANA - In spite of efforts made by industrialized nations to master sophisticated technologies with a view to developing and fostering non-fossil energies, oil still remains the most dominant energy carrier in the world. Oil is unlikely to be supplanted by any sustainable alternative at least for decades.






That explains why oil market has experienced ups and downs over the past century. The oil market is affected by the slightest global and even regional developments.

The establishment of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was among the first steps taken aimed at supply management and adjusting supply and demand in the market.

Maintaining market stability and security for energy carriers, particularly oil, takes up added significance when one takes into consideration the fact that non-OPEC oil producers and even oil consumers are in continued interaction with OPEC in a bid to push ahead with their industrial, economic and social development plans without hitting any snags.

A prime example of such OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation was the recently held 10th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). The meeting underlined the need for the participating countries to conform to their quota obligations.

Under such circumstances, the Trump administration is seeking to re-impose sanctions on Iran�s oil sector. Such sanctions were already imposed on Iran by former US administrations, proving to be futile.

Despite threats and illogical measures taken by the US government in imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran, the oil market is not in position to remove supply from Iran which remains the world�s largest holder of hydrocarbon reserves.

Driving Iran out of oil market would require an extra capacity of 2.7 mb/d, which is currently impossible even by OPEC and non-OPEC producers together.

The second obstacle in the way of imposition of unilateral sanctions is the psychological impact of energy market that may experience a new price shock. That is not acceptable even to the US�s traditional allies.

Oil price volatility would hinder development plans in oil producing nations which heavily depend on petrodollars. However, developing nations are also facing budgetary shortfall, which would result in depression and social consequences. No country would be ready to accept such conditions just to appease Donald Trump.

Trump has so far triggered political and trade war with such countries as Canada, Mexico, China and Russia after making hasty decisions and pursuing adventurist policies.

Now he seems to have no rational analysis of realities on the ground in the oil market. He wrongly imagines that he would be able to force global community to follow him.

Iran will prove to President Trump that his wrong decision will produce no fruitful results, and imposing embargo on Iran�s oil will fail.