Iranian Diplomacy | Hanif Ghafari: As US congressional elections draw nearer, the rivalry between Democrats and Republicans get fiercer and one of things probable to be affected by the outcome may be the prospect of the JCPOA AKA Iran nuclear deal.
As we come closer to November and the time for the congress elections in the United States, the competitions between Democrats and Republicans get sharper over major and critical issues affecting the domestic and foreign policies of the US In recent days, we have witnessed the American Democrats’ collective and coordinated attacks on the White House and the President of the country.
Former Secretary of State John Kerry implicitly stated that he would not rule out running for president in 2020. Kerry was the Democratic nominee for president in 2004 but ultimately lost the election to former US President George W. Bush. He had also emphasized on the critical situation of the United States following the presence of Trump at the White House.
Also Al Gore, the former vice president and Democratic presidential candidate, publicly called for President Donald Trump to resign. Moreover, former US President Barack Obama challenged the existing policies in the United States during John McCain’s funeral, without naming Trump. Delivering his eulogy, Obama said: “So much of our politics, our public life, our public discourse can seem small and mean and petty, trafficking in bombast and insult and phony controversies and manufactured outrage.”
The main question here is whether the Democrats will have the power to revive the nuclear deal with Iran if they win the congress midterm elections and conquer the House of Representatives and the Senate. In other words, Will the Democrats be able to force Trump to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and prevent the reintroduction of secondary sanctions against Iran? Answering this question, we should take two points into consideration:
Firstly, the president of the United States, speaking among his proponents, has warned about the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections. Trump has explicitly stated that if Democrats win the elections, many of his decisions will be destroyed. Though Trump didn’t apparently point to the JCPOA in his speech, some analysts believe that Iran’s nuclear deal will be one of the most important issues of controversy between him and Democrats in future.
The second point is that the Democrats can’t necessarily help them in their opposition to Trump. A sprawling series of contests for a plethora of offices in different states will be on the ballot in November. There’s the whole House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, 36 governorships, and many state legislature seats.
To win a majority, the Democrats will need to keep the 194 seats they hold currently and flip at least 24 Republican seats. The House map is also tough for Democrats: In the House, all 435 seats will be up, as they are every two years. Democrats’ magic number there is 24 seats — that’s the net gain they need to retake control of the House. Strategists in both parties now consider Democrats likely to gain the 23 seats they need to reclaim a majority in the House of Representatives. That would let Democrats roadblock Trump’s legislative agenda, launch oversight investigations and explore impeachment proceedings.
The Senate outlook remains in greater doubt as the parties wage even-money battles in eight states, most of them Trump-friendly. But no one dismisses Democrats’ opportunity to gain the two seats they need for control, which would give them veto power over White House appointments to the Cabinet and courts.
In spite of all these, the Democrats’ current silence regarding the JCPOA is considered intentional! So far, no Democrat senator or even a Democrat politician in the United States has spoken of returning to the JCPOA (in case Democrats could win the Congress). This suggests that even if Democrats have such a decision, they will not publicize it until they win the elections.
Another point to be considered here is the confrontation between Democrats in Congress and the White House between 2018 and 2020. What is certain is that many Democrats are trying to face the economic crisis (in the field of domestic economy and welfare services) resulted from Trump’s policies, and thus increase their chances of winning the presidential elections in 2020.
As former Secretary of State John Kerry has implicitly pointed out, Democrats are now focused on midterm elections, and subsequently, they’re after winning the presidential elections in 2020. Some analysts believe that if Democrats win the congress elections, John Kerry will firmly stand against Trump’s decision to cancel the nuclear deal. But it should not be forgotten that John Kerry failed several times in convincing the US Congress over the extension of the AISA Act. The question is, will Kerry be able to make Democrats stand for the JCPOA in case they win the Congress elections? We should wait and see.
Source: Mehr News