Sputnik- The Iranian protests revealed the split both within the Iranian elites, and with society. President Hassan Rouhani still faces resistance from the country's ultra-conservatives. It is likely that the unrest was prompted by domestic economic difficulties, rather than by the actions of external players.
The protestswhich erupted onDecember 28, 2017, inIran's major cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Rash immediately became the focus ofspecial attention frommass media, prompting theories offoreign interferenceor even a new revolution inthe country.Sputnik Persianhas taken a closer look atthe problem.
Why Now?
The timing ofthe event raises questions: What exactly happened betweenthe end ofDecember 2017 and the beginning ofJanuary 2018 that triggered the public discontent? And why did rallies kick offin Mashhad?
In December, Tehran undertook a number ofeconomic measures which may have been the last straw. These measures led tothe hike infuel prices, which resulted inthe price increase foralmost all types ofgoods. Meanwhile, an epidemic ofavian influenza killed 15 million chickens, further inflating the price foreggs and chicken the most popular and affordable foods forIranians.
That same month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani proposed a new budget atthe Iranian Majlis, the country's parliament, which envisaged the abolishment ofsome subsidies forthe population. The new budget also suggested an increase intaxes, including onleaving the country, which will see a nearly threefold increase, from $21 to $61. Simultaneously, Tehran will boost military expenditure, including the maintenance ofits armed forces abroad.
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="581"]
Iranian soldiers prepare to launch a Hawk surface-to-air missile during military maneuvers at an undisclosed location[/caption]Hassan Rouhani Could be the Main Target
Although the Rouhani government has done much to pull the country back from economic crisis, including signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the P5+1 countries and the EU in 2015, the president is not "omnipotent." Rouhani is second to the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in terms of power, therefore part of the president's economic plans and measures have yet to be implemented.
Despite the 4-5 percent GDP growth underRouhani, the unemployment rate inthe country remains at12.4 percent, and youth unemployment at28.8 percent. It was the youth who became the driving force forthe recent protests.
In addition, Iran's military political activities abroad inIraq, Syria and Yemen required considerable expenditures onthe part ofTehran. In 2013, the Iranian government allocated $15 billion forSyria, which allowed Bashar al-Assad tofulfill his social obligations and finance his army. From 2015 onward, Iran's economic assistance toDamascus has amounted to $8-9 billion per annum.
As a result, Rouhani was forced totake unpopular measures, causing dissatisfaction amongdifferent social layers inthe country.
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In this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, university students attend a protest inside Tehran University while anti-riot Iranian police prevent them to join other protestors, in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Dec. 30, 2017[/caption]Why Did Protests Kick Off inMashhad
It is no coincidence that protests began inMashhad: Being a sacred city forShiites, it is also the mainstay ofultraconservatives and their leaders Ebrahim Raisi Rouhani's main rival inthe 2017 elections and Shiite Islamic cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda, who opposes President Rouhani and his policies.
According tosome reports, it was Alamolhoda who called uponthe residents ofMashhad totake tothe streets againstRouhani. Yet another leader ofthe conservative opposition, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, joined his associates. Unconfirmed reports say thatAhmadinejad was arrestedinthe western Iranian city ofBushehr forcontributing tothe unrest. Iranian authorities and the media have not commented onthe issue yet.
However, it appears that the situation did not develop according tothe plans ofthe initiators. Economic slogans and demands were quickly changed topolitical ones, criticizing the Islamic regime inthe country, aswell asits domestic and foreign policies. The wave ofprotests engulfed the whole ofIran.
What Were the Major Social Drivers ofthe Protests?
Young people make upmore than60 percent ofthe country's population. They are well-educated and use the Internet. It seems that many ofthem feel uncomfortable withthe Islamic ideological pressure that regulates almost all aspects ofeveryday life. Out of80 million people, 48 million Iranians have smartphones and 40 million use Telegram messenger. They are well aware ofwhat is happening inthe world.
However, besidespro-Western youths, the nation-wide protests also involved conservative Muslims and representatives ofthe poorest strata. The representatives ofvarious political trends signaled their discontent withthe Iranian leadership. Still, the protesters often expressed contradictory views.
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People protest in Tehran, Iran December 30, 2017 in this picture obtained from social media[/caption]At the same time, the Iranian middle class Rouhani's voters did not support the protests and opposed the nation-wide rallies. While the demonstrations involved various social and political groups, including those fromthe highest echelons ofpower, they could be divided intotwo camps: liberal reformers and radical conservatives.
Perhaps everyone was interested inusing the situation intheir political interests overthe course ofthe protests. The reformer Rouhani can tell his opponents that they are hampering reforms, so people taking tothe streets are infavor ofchange. Conservative radicals may answer that, although Rouhani has been inpower since2013, he has done nothing toimprove people's lives.
Lina Arabi@LinaArabiiKen Roth also shares a pic from a pro-Khamenei rally and suggest it's an anti-Khamenei rally even though it's pretty obvious.. pic.twitter.com/RuhCF9AdhG
11:11 AM - Dec 31, 2017
What Did the Iran Protests Indicate?
1.The protests appeared tobe largely triggered byinternal economic and political causes.
2.It's unlikely that they were provoked byexternal forces. Foreign influence was limited toanti-Iranian propaganda inthe mainstream mediaand Internet and statements fromsome foreign leaders directed againstTehran.
3.The protests translated intoneither a revolution, nor a general uprising: Although demonstrations engulfed the country's major cities, the number ofprotesters (from 40,000 to400,000, depending onthe estimates) was insignificant, given the fact that the country's population amounts to80 million.
4.The Iranian protesters did not have a unified goal, program or leaders.
5.Iranian authorities did not exercise tough or excessive measures while handling the situation.
6.Tehran plans tocarry outa thorough investigation ofthe events and consider the demands ofthe protesters. It was reported that the municipality ofTehran has already approved the idea ofcreating a specialized park forpublic protests, modeled onLondon's Hyde Park.
7.The events indicated a split withinthe Iranian elites, aswell asthe country's society. However, it depends onthe leadership ofthe Islamic Republic ofIran (IRI), its domestic and foreign policies whether protests will be resumed.
Since late December 2017, about3,700 people have been detained duringthe protests, while atleast 20 people were killed. According toInterior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, about42,000 Iranians took part inthe rallies.
The views expressed inthis article do not necessarily reflect the official position ofSputnik.
