Sputnik - The nuclear agreement with Iran is in danger since Donald Trump not only refused to re-certify it but also threatened to withdraw the support of the US. However, the US pulling out unilaterally does not necessarily mean the termination of the deal.




MOSCOW (Sputnik)�� The Joint Comprehensive Plan of�Action (JCPOA), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, may be preserved even if the United States decides to�withdraw, as�the European Union has enough economic leverage to�convince Tehran to�comply, experts told Sputnik.

In July 2015, Iran signed the JCPOA with�the P5+1 group of�nations, a group comprised of�the five permanent members of�the UN Security Council�� China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States�� plus Germany. The nuclear deal came into�force in�January 2016, and provides for�the gradual lifting of�economic and diplomatic sanctions imposed on�Tehran by�Western countries in�exchange for�closing Iran's nuclear program.

The deal's future is currently threatened by�the skepticism of�US President Donald Trump, who has been critical of�the agreement since�his election campaign in�2016. Trump said last week that he would not re-certify the deal to�US Congress and asked US lawmakers to�renegotiate the agreement, stating that otherwise it might be terminated.

JCPOA Possible if the US Pulls Out

The agreement may be preserved even without�the United States as�long as�all the remaining parties provide enough support "to uphold the deal, and to�continue complying, even against�extremist opposition", according to�Paul Ingram, the executive director of�the British American Security Information Council think tank.

It means that the future of�the deal depend on�the reactions of�the other parties since "they have to�make up�for the economic losses Iran may incur because of�US defection, and they have to�deal with�the likely secondary sanctions the US may impose on�those Western, Russian and Chinese companies which continue dealing with�Iran against�the US will."

Congress in�Difficult Position

The US Congress is "in a really big bind" following�Trump's announcement, since�it may dislike the agreement, but�cannot simply discard it, Ingram said. He explained that�on�the technical end the deal is functioning�that is why the Congress cannot just label Iran "the bad guy" who does not comply with�the provisions of�the agreement and impose more sanctions. If it happens Congress "will be seen as�the bad guys by�everybody."

The US government might find itself "in an uncomfortable position" as�the country has to�face a hard choice, executive director and head of�the Research Department for�Policies for�Security Governance of�States at�the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, told Sputnik. On the one hand, the US can continue to�sabotage the JCPOA, which will inevitably lead to�a costly economic war with�the supporters of�the deal. On the other hand, there is an option for�the US to�give in�to compromise but�it will entail the "loss of�face" in�the extremist followership as�well as�among the Arab allies and Israel.

Ingram suggested that the US Congress still might end up�imposing more sanctions on�Iran, though described as�punitive measures over�human rights or regional security issues rather than�over the nuclear deal itself.

Benefits to�Iran

However, even if the US Congress adds new sanctions, Iran has a strong incentive to�continue complying with�the deal, Ingram noted.
"If Congress does slap more sanctions� the Iranians will have to�consider whether they respond by�partially withdrawing from�the agreement or fully withdrawing from�the agreement, saying they�ll come back to�the agreement when the Americans come to�their senses, or whether they say we�ll stick to�the agreement. And I think there is a strong case for�the Iranians to�stick to�the agreement because most of�their commercial dealings are with�the Europeans anyway," he said.


According to�the European Commission, the European Union used to�be Iran's largest trade partner before�the sanctions, while now it is the fifth. In 2016, the monetary value of�EU-Iranian trade reached 13.7 billion euros (roughly $16.1 billion). EU exports to�Iran include machinery, transport equipment, chemicals and manufactured goods. Iran exports mostly energy-related products to�the European Union, as�well as�manufactured goods and food.

Europe's Reasons

The European Union appreciates the deal because it regards it as "a pillar of�stability in�the nuclear developments in�the region and in�the global non-proliferation regime," Mueller said. Moreover, Europe believes that the nuclear deal creates "a level playing field between�the reasonable conservative and reform-minded parts of�the Iranian elite and the more extreme pundits (the orthodox clergy and the Revolutionary Guards)," Mueller, who is also a current vice president of�the EU Consortium for�Non-Proliferation, said.

Mueller added that rising trade with�Iran after�the end of�sanctions was a bonus, but�not a decisive factor for�Europe.

Ingram believes that�Europe will "vigorously defend the JCPOA", although they would not want to�ruin their relationship with�Washington.

Europe's Options

Europe's high trade turnover with�Iran can allow it to�play an important role in�preserving the nuclear deal, Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst with�the International Crisis Group non-profit organization, told Sputnik.

To protect its own companies, the European Union could use the Blocking Regulation, introduced in�1996 as�a way to�counteract US extraterritorial sanctions. Vaez explained that such legislation "provides political reassurance to�European companies engaged in�the Iranian market by�extending non-recognition of�US judgments and administrative determinations that give effect to�US sanctions, and by�establishing a 'clawback' clause for�recovery of�damages incurred for�alleged sanctions violations."

The analyst added that some European banks and companies might prefer the larger US market to�a smaller Iranian one, but "others would be more willing to�take the risk if they feel shielded by�their governments."