Will Turkey launch military invasion in Syria at risk of World War III?

Tehran, February 10, The Iran Project – The Geneva III Peace Talks which was due to hold negotiations in order to bring an end to five-year- long crisis in Syria was delayed because of suspension of the talks by dissidents residing in Riyadh.

Indeed, prior to breaking the several-year-long siege of Syria’s Nabl and al-Zahra towns in Aleppo province and suffering setback as the result of Syrian army advances, the anti-government forces backed by Saudi Arabia and other foreign powers moved to impose ceasefire to prevent the forces’ gradual erosion.

The Russia, however, decisively objected the proposal at the time, arguing that there would be no reason for ceasefire until the terrorist threats remain in place.

Now with losing the strategic towns of Nabl and al-Zahra and earlier eye-catching advances of the Syrian army since the aerial support of Russia, it seems logical that the foreign-backed rebels decided to refrain from entering any direct or indirect talks for political settlement with Assad government.

The situation even grows more complicated when Russia later accused Turkey of preparing to launch a military operation within the Syria soil. The Russia warning was while the US Vice President, Joe Biden earlier had announced that the US and Turkey will eye military solutions in Syria if the negotiations to establish peace in Syria fails.

Irrespective of the painful implications of Turkey likely military adventure, the question here is if Turkey set to make a military move in Syria?

Logically speaking, Turkey sees no way other than direct involvement in order to escape from failure in calculations during the years of conflict since 2011. It desperately has given up the hope to overthrow Assad rule after five years.

Therefore, the direct engagement in Syria to realize this long-established goal under the cover of less significant priorities like fighting against ISIS and pushing the Kurdish militias away from the borders is an idea which sounds even more justifiable than ever for Ankara.

In the eyes of Erdogan government, the unpleasant condition of war in the light of Russia involvement which has changed the game in favor of pro-government front is another convincing element to invade Syria.

Unlike Ankara official denial, there is more evidence in favor of the country’s decision for direct military intervention. Apart from the Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman’s remarks, Turkey has launched demining operation in the border zone which has led to the tension with ISIS and further expressed readiness to deploy ground forces to the Syria along with Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, several months ago it laid the groundwork for any coming adventure. Through reaching an agreement with the US to terminate the ISIS presence on the border with a joint military venture along Jarabulus to Azaz, the Turkish army has been deploying forces on the Syrian border.

To conclude, it is not certain either Turkish government would sit idly by, witnessing the frustration of efforts made in past years, or move toward a military invasion which has minimum guaranty to be rewarding. Some analysts argue that Erdogan’s new adventurism may amount to further turmoil not in Syria but inside Turkey, as any military move likely provokes ISIS sever retaliation inside the Turkish soil.

What is certain here is that the potential risky step by this country will bring nothing but would increase the complication of the already-worsening political situation in Syria at the risk of  fighting Russia and starting World War III.

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