Alwaght- In past few weeks the Russian military has carried out massive airstrikes on the positions of anti-Assad forces in Syria. The Kremlin�s officials are seeking two major aims through their air campaign in the allied country, Syria.

Russia has pointed out that the primary goal of its campaign was fighting terrorism in Syria and Iraq, an aim repeatedly highlighted by the Russian political officials. However, this goal is the tip of the iceberg, and Moscow�s objective for military intervention in Syria goes beyond only fighting terrorism.

In fact its ultimate goal is to restore the balance of power in Syria and help strengthen the Syrian government�s grounds and defense lines. Should this aim actualized on the ground, Russia and its allies would gain bigger potentials for confronting the terror groups, including ISIS. At the time being, nearly three quarters of the Syrian territories are captured by the anti-Syrian government forces. In the past months a couple of significant incidents have taken place in the country that tipped the scales in favor of the anti-Assad forces.

Founding Jaish al-Fatah and capturing Idlib

It can be firmly claimed that the overarching political and military development after ISIS� emergence and its snap win in Syria has been the foundation of Jaish al-Fatah military group and capturing the Syrian northern province of Idlib, an issue which would be remembered as a turning point in the country�s internal conflict, because such an event, beside presence of the ISIS terrorist group, led to Russia and its allies� military presence in Syria. In early March, 2015, the anti-Assad armed groups, excluding ISIS, under support and supervision of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and with the intention of finding a way out of the Syria�s political and military deadlock, have made a united force under Jaish al-Fatah title. According to the experts' claims the new opposition force consisted of 20,000 militants, all of them equipped with new arms as well as a fresh strategy.

Jaish al-Fatah�s primary and main front line was the Idlib province, which was indicative of the military group�s strategic choice. Only five days after declaration of Jaish al-Fatah�s formation, most of the Idlib province�s territories were held by the armed group, being the second province after Raqqa, from which the Syrian government�s forces retreated. Idlib�s fall has been the first significant sign of disruption of the balance of power in Syrian conflict within a year.

Before that, despite the fact that ISIS had captured a large stretch of Syria�s land, however, because of the remoteness, it posed no threat to the country�s big cities, which had been entirely under army forces' control, and most of the armed groups' clashes took place in the country�s eastern and central areas, which were relatively deserts. But, Jaish al-Fatah for the first time, beside stepping in the field conflicts in the eastern areas, has announced its plans for making advances in large cities and bringing down the Syrian central government.

Militarily, Idlib is one of the most significant and most strategic Syrian provinces. In south, Idlib neighbors Aleppo which is considered as the largest province in the country.

Idlib is also next to Hama and parts of large city of Homs. These two provinces are of extraordinary significance as they link the Syrian coast corridor, which includes the provinces of Tartus and Lattakia, both of which are demographically Alawite, to the capital city, Damascus. In West, Idlib shares border with Lattakia province, which is on the one hand the President Bashar al-Assad�s stronghold and the influence center, and on the other hand, it is home for Russia�s only military base in the region.

Post-Idlib developments and the opposition�s three-faced plan

Following Idlib�s capture, Jaish al-Fatah has made some gains in the country�s south. The three provinces of Darra, As-Suwayda and Quneitra, known as the southern gates of the capital Damascus, have come under the group�s attacks. The incidents happened following the Jaish al-Fatah�s assaults in later months indicated the fact that anti-Assad armed groups and their allied countries have sought to adopt a three-level plan, intending to bring down Syria�s central government.

First part of the plan, which was launched in recent two months, was attacking the Syrian coastal areas in Lattakia province. The opposition forces managed to push back the government�s forces in some parts of the province, advancing only 40 kilometers away from the center of the province. This development has made the government to dispatch a considerable number of its forces to preserve the coastal areas at the expense of retreating from other fronts. The second part of the plan was capturing the country�s southern areas.

Currently, the opposition forces are busy making progress in this front. More threatening than the first two parts, the third part of the plan sought to cut off connection between Damascus and the coastal provinces through Homs and Hama provinces. Should this plan succeeded, the areas under the government�s control would have been divided in two separate parts. This issue would have created a defense disconnect, making the two government-held areas unable to collaborate closely, as on the other hand Lebanon�s Hezbollah could be pushed in geopolitical restriction and isolation.

In past few months, Russia and Iran have perceived the message of anti-Assad opposition and the design of the three-phase plan for Syria. Therefore, if the opposition forces� advances keep going on, something possible to a great extent, they would push the country�s big and decisive war to the Damascus gates. At that time assistance to al-Assad�s forces by his allies would be useless.

So, the fresh Russian-led coalition comes with the intention of strengthening the government�s forces defense lines in all fronts, specifically in northwest and south as well as the coast to Damascus corridor, blocking more advances by the opposition fighters and thwarting the three-phase plan. Achieving preset goals, would help Russia restore the balance of power between the warring sides in the country, and for next steps Moscow and its allies would noticeably propel Bashar al-Assad�s government toward regaining the occupied areas and obliterating the terrorist groups.

By Alwaght