President Barack Obama stands at left as Secretary of State John Kerry, right, greets the new Saudi Arabian King, Salman bin Abdul Aziz in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Jan. 27. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS[/caption]Saudi Arabia, Egypt, others worry about regional arms race; new talk of extending U.S. umbrella
WASHINGTONArab governments are privately expressing their concern to Washington about the emerging terms of a potential deal aimed at curbing Irans nuclear program, according to Arab and U.S. officials involved in the deliberations.
The direction of U.S. diplomacy with Tehran has added fuel to fears in some Arab states of a nuclear-arms race in the region, as well as reviving talk about possibly extending a U.S. nuclear umbrella to Middle East allies to counter any Iranian threat.
The major Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have said that a final agreement could allow Shiite-dominated Iran, their regional rival, to keep the technologies needed to produce nuclear weapons, according to these officials, while removing many of the sanctions that have crippled its economy in recent years.
Arab officials said a deal would likely drive Saudi Arabia, for one, to try to quickly match Irans nuclear capabilities.
At this stage, we prefer a collapse of the diplomatic process to a bad deal, said an Arab official who has discussed Iran with the Obama administration and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.
The Obama administration initially said its policy was to completely dismantle Tehrans nuclear infrastructure as a means to protect Washingtons Mideast allies.
Now, however, U.S. officials say it is no longer plausible to eliminate all of Irans nuclear infrastructure, suggesting that any final deal would leave some nuclear capability in place. Iran denies that it is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, but a final deal providing for nuclear enrichment capacity could prompt a competition.
Arab officials have increasingly spoken about a possible nuclear arms race in the Mideast as the negotiations have continued for 18 months, having been extended twice.
U.S. officials have declined to publicly disclose terms of the deal being negotiated with Iran. But they stress that they have closely consulted with Washingtons Arab allies about the diplomatic process.
The Obama administration believes an agreement with Iran will curtail the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Mideast, rather than fuel one.
Only a good negotiated solution will result in long-term confidence that Iran wont acquire a nuclear weapon, a senior U.S. official said. Given Iran already has the technical capability, our goal has always been to get to one-year breakout time and cut off the four pathways under a very constrained program.
Secretary of StateJohn Kerryis traveling to Geneva for direct talks Sunday and Monday with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, aimed at pushing the diplomacy forward, according to U.S. officials. For the first time, a second cabinet member, Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, will join the American delegation to advise on technical issues.
[caption id="attachment_152223" align="aligncenter" width="374"]
Secretary of State John Kerry, center right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Jan. 14 during a bilateral meeting ahead of a round of nuclear discussions. PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY[/caption]American and Iranian officials have set a late March deadline for reaching a deal and said it would be difficult to extend it again due to political opposition in Tehran and Washington.
PresidentBarack Obamahas publicly placed the chances of a deal at less than 50-50. But he and Mr. Kerry both have voiced concern that a breakdown in the diplomatic process could renew tensions between the U.S. and Iran after a significant thaw over the past two years.
Given the concerns of Arab allies, the White House may need to provide them with greater security guarantees if it concludes a deal that stops short of dismantling Tehrans ability to produce nuclear fuel, some former U.S. officials say. They particularly cite the possible need to place Arab states in the Persian Gulf under the U.S.s nuclear umbrella.
It will be destabilizing to our friends and allies, Stephen Hadley, a national-security adviser to PresidentGeorge W. Bush, said at a Feb. 11 conference hosted by the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank. They will probably, in any event, hedge, in trying to have their own nuclear programs.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly raised the possibility in 2009 of the U.S. providing a defense umbrella to allied Mideast states.
The White House has stressed its policy isnt to contain Tehran, but to deny it the capability to produce atomic bombs, making a formal defense pact unnecessary. But the talks have stoked regional anxiety, and Arab officials have held discussions about a possible nuclear umbrella with former U.S. officials and academics within recent weeks.
Arab governments have steered clear of aligning their statements with Israel, but share many of that countrys fears, U.S. and Arab diplomats say.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged as the most outspoken critic of the White Houses Iran diplomacy among the U.S.s Mideast allies. He has repeatedly accused the U.S. of being on the verge of striking a historically weak agreement with Tehran. The Israeli leader is scheduled to speak March 3 before a joint session of Congress on the issue.
Tensions between the U.S. and Israel flared this week after the Obama administration accused Mr. Netanyahus government of misstating U.S. negotiating positions with Iran. U.S. officials also said they have withheld certain intelligence related to the diplomacy from the Israeli government, due to fears that it was being leaked to the media.
Mr. Netanyahu hasnt backed down.
We know that Tehran knows the details of the talks. Now I tell you that Israel also knows the details of the proposed agreement, the Israeli leader said in a speech Thursday. I think this is a bad agreement that is dangerous for the state of Israel, and not just for it. If anyone thinks otherwise, what is there to hide here?
The Obama administration has acknowledged that Iran will be allowed to maintain thousands of the centrifuge machines used to produce nuclear fuel as part of any final deal. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and others have argued these machines should be completely dismantled, since the centrifuges could be used for both civilian and military purposes.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi intelligence, said in November that his country would match the nuclear technologies Iran was allowed to maintain as part of any final agreement. Riyadh will seek to have the same terms in developing our nuclear energy, he told a conference in Washington.
The nuclear diplomacy is playing out against heightened tensions between Iran and many of the U.S.s closest Arab partners in the Mideast.
Tehran is a close ally of the Shiite-dominated governments in Iraq and Syria and has provided financial support for Shiite Houthi militias that seized power in Yemens capital, Sana, last month. Sunni Arab leaders believe Tehran is making a land grab in the region, which is fueling support for Sunni terrorist groups like Islamic State and al Qaeda that are fighting in those three countries.
Arab leaders said they are committed to supporting the U.S. coalition fighting Islamic State. But they said the campaign is complicated by fears Washington is aligning with Tehran.
Despite sharing Israels concerns about an Iran deal, Arab leaders havent tempered their calls for the U.S. to also address Israels suspected nuclear weapons arsenal. The Jewish state is believed to have hundreds of atomic bombs, something it has neither confirmed nor denied.
There has to be a regional approach, former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said at the Atlantic Council last week.
This article was written byJay Solomon for The Wall Street Journal on Feb.20, 2015. Jay Solomon writes about foreign affairs and national security from The Wall Street Journal's Washington DC bureau. His coverage areas include international diplomacy, nuclear weapons proliferation, counter-terrorism and Middle East and Asian affairs. You can also find him here @WSJSolomon
