Iran and US are negotiating over Iran nuke program. Negotiations are going in 2 ways, secret and formal. Political experts call 5+1 talks a show and media game, as the formal way of negotiations. They believe that Catherine Ashton and Saeed Jalili are not suitable to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program, since they are not able to reach or not to reach an agreement, in terms of personality. Catherine Ashton has been likened to a puppet and also Saeed Jalili isn’t a key figure in Iran’s domestic politics such as Ali Larijani, former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. It is unclear that where secret negotiations are underway but what is clear that the two main sides of negotiations, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and US President Barak Obama concluded to ease escalating tensions through other channels.
Meanwhile, Barak Obama faced a challenging election. Obama’s adverse party, republicans impose maximum leverage on Obama. Historically, few democratic presidents could win the second round of presidential election. Obama’s rival, Mitt Romney speaking at a small female-owned company, invoked the name of former President Jimmy Carter as part of an ongoing attempt to tie President Obama to the one-term Democrat, according to CBSNEWS.
American people demand a decisive reaction against Iran but no war plan. Arab countries and Israel demand a decisive reaction and thwarting the Iran’s threat without being involved in a war against Iran, themselves. They want Obama to defuse Iran’s threat through a war with no major consequences. Republicans want to use Iran as a trap for Obama, not letting him to win the second round of election, in addition.
On the other hand it is said that the republican’s nominee, Mitt Romney is a close friend of one of the former Israeli prime minister.
Therefore Obama tries to negotiate with Iran in order to thwart the republicans’ plan and to convince his people, Israel and other contenders that he is doing all he can to resolve the Iran issue. Obama would not be the next president if a new war is started.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should choose between bad and worse options, Obama as the bad option and the republican nominee as the worse one.
In conclusion, it could be said that Iran and US as the main negotiator are willing to resolve the issue before November this year.
On the other side, England and France as the 5+1 members are against Iran but Iran’s opponent countries tear apart by Sarkozy’s defeat in presidential election. Germany’s position is not as hard as that of France and Britain, because it benefits from trading with Iran.
Russia and China agree to resolve Iran’s issue through negotiations, although their agreement is due to their own national interests.
At this point of time, situation goes to a way that if two main negotiators (Iran and US) want to reach an agreement, it would be done. It can be predicted that what would be the result of this agreement: sanctions imposed on Iran in the past 6 months would be lifted. In return, Iran would confine uranium enrichment. Iran’s oil exports to Europe will be resumed. Iran would accept additional protocol and IAEA inspector’s visit to its nuclear power plant, according to NPT (non-proliferation treaty,) as well. then, Iran might be granted the right of buying aircraft.
The next round of confrontation between Iran and US would be in summer 2013 over Iran’s next presidential election. But it’s unclear what would happen in the future.