Al Manitor | Semih Idiz: Very little has gone the way President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted in the Middle East since the start of the now-defunct Arab Spring. His reaction to the Qatar crisis, where he threw his lot in with Doha at the expense of endangering ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, appears to be the latest episode in this enigma.


This development is also likely to force Erdogan to ease tensions with Tehran, which also backs Qatar, to avoid facing a new bout of isolation in the region. Tellingly, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was in Ankara literally within hours of the Qatar crisis breaking out.

It is noteworthy that Erdogan was warning the Gulf states not so long ago against Iran�s regional ambitions, so we could be facing a new tack by him from one side to the other, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

Many consider Erdogan�s reaction as a new example of his impulsive and erratic approach to foreign policy, and they note that this has left Ankara out of tune with the regional established order once again, facing more difficult choices. His stance has also left experts wondering about what is really driving Ankara�s foreign policy.

Erdogan, who was prime minister when the Arab Spring broke out, and Ahmet Davutoglu, his overambitious foreign minister, had great expectations for Turkey at the time. It was to be the historic moment that would make Turkey the principal regional player on the basis of shared Islamic values. Being the region�s former ruler, Turkey knew best what was good for it and would provide this to the benefit of all.

This oversimplification did not factor in Arab nationalism, latent historic antipathy toward Turkey, the inbred dislike by the region�s established order for political Islam, and most important, the Sunni-Shiite divide that has always been a major fault line in the Middle East.