26 Apr 2024
Monday 22 May 2017 - 17:27
Story Code : 262039

Rouhani win seen speeding Iran's oil push amid Trump threats

Bloomberg |Anthony Dipaola: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is in a stronger positionafter his re-election to push through plans for wooing foreign investors the country needs to boost oil production,according to analysts atCornerstone Global Associates and SVB Energy.

Irans effort to attract about $100 billion to develop more than 50 oil and natural gas fields bogged down ahead of the May 19 presidential election. Political arguments stalled approval of the contract terms the government would offer, and U.S. financial sanctions -- and the potential threat of additional curbs -- continue to dissuade many would-be international investors.

Rouhani defeated rivals in a landslide, winning about 57 percent of the vote. As his victory was announced on Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump was in Saudi Arabia, Irans regional rival, bolstering a coalition of states opposed to the Islamic republic. Trump has said the nuclear accord that world powers reached with Iran is one of the worst deals hes seen and is reviewing policy toward the country.

The election does give Rouhani a mandate to push things through,Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based management consultant Cornerstone Global Associates, said in an interview in Dubai on Sunday. Rouhani will do one of two things: either wait and see what Trump does, or hell say, Lets move ahead. Id advise him to go ahead.

Shipments Double

Years of international sanctions throttled investment in Iran, once OPECs second-largest producer, and stunted its economy. A tightening of restrictions in 2012 cut into its crude exports. Thecountry more than doubled oil sales after restrictions were eased in January 2016.

Exports have risen to about 2.5 million barrels a day since then, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, the oil minister, said on May 6at a Tehran conference. Zanganeh has been instrumental in the governments drive for foreign investment, helping to craft Irans new oil-investor contracts and pitching projects to international companies. Rouhani hasnt said yet if hell retain the same cabinet for his second term.

Iran was waiting until after the election to hold its first international auction of oil-development rights, Iranian Students News Agency reportedon May 16, citing Ali Kardor, managing director of state-run National Iranian Oil Co. Iran announced some terms of the new investor contract at a November 2015conference in Tehran, and it targeted signing the first deals in March or April of 2016.

The fact that Rouhani won as a reformist who delivered the nuclear deal and promised to bring in foreign investment would suggest that there is support for things like the oil contracts, Patrick Murphy, a Dubai-based partner at law firm Clyde & Co., said by phone Sunday.

Political Foes

Rouhanis political foes have less interest in blocking the new contract now that hes won a new term, saidSara Vakhshouri, president of Washington, D.C.-based consultant SVB Energy. Even so, international investors are still worried aboutremaining U.S. sanctions and possible future sanctions that could target Irans missile program, she said by email.

The biggest oil companies have committed so far to little more than agreements to study energy projects or form development plans in Iran. Total SA, which agreed to draw up plans to produce offshore natural gas and pump crude onshore, hasnt signed any final deals for projects there.

Iran funds, arms, and trains terrorists, militias, and other extremist groups, Trumpsaid Sunday in Riyadh in a speech to leaders of more than 50 predominantly Muslim countries. All nations of conscience should isolate Iran until its willing to be a partner for peace, he said.

The Trump administration agreed last week to roll over sanctions waivers on Irans oil industry and crude sales. At the same time, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Irans ballistic missile program and said it was continuing to review Irans adherence to the 2015 nuclear accord.

Everything becomes irrelevant if Trump tears up or tries to modify the historic agreement, as that would scare off investors,said Nuseibeh, the London-based analyst.

On the other hand,Rouhani will boost interest among European governments and companies for keeping Iran open for business if he can offer oil-development contracts now, the consultant said. That would make it even more complicated for Trump to try to renegotiate the nuclear deal, Nuseibeh said.
https://theiranproject.com/vdcbf5b59rhb0gp.4eur.html
Your Name
Your Email Address