Alwaght- In Turkish parliamentary election in November, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the election, and now from whatever perspective we review the election results, it is Erdogan's AK Party headed by Davutoglu which has won the majority and would soon took office. 

The party will form the government independently, and no coalition with other parties is needed, as it has won 316 seats. However, AKP would not be able to achieve its goals concerning the change in the Constitution and granting executive power to the President, because for such a change it will require at least 330 seats. However, the AKP's main rival, the People’s Democratic Party won more than ten percent of the votes and can enter the Turkish Parliament. From now on, the party will try to put forward its demands through legal means, microphone and parliamentary seats. But in the meantime, despite the double victory of both parties in the parliamentary election, we saw a double defeat, too. AK Party gained the seats required to form a government independently, and the People's Democratic Party also won the quorum of ten percent. On the other hands, AKP failed to be the former single leading party and have the upper hand to do the country’s affairs. Meanwhile, in November election, the People’s Democratic Party failed to regain the votes it had gained in June election. Nevertheless, both parties are pretty happy with the election results.

Reasons behind the victory of AKP can be explained with regard to following five factors:

 

One: the historical background; it should be noted that the AKP has been well-known for the economic boom in Turkey since 2002 and also guided political prosperity from 2005, which reached its climax in peace process of 2012.

Two: the war against the PKK and creating an atmosphere of insecurity; from a few months ago and after the inconclusive election in June 7, in addition to the pragmatic foreign policy towards the Syrian crisis under the pretext of fighting the ISIS, the Party made attempts to create an atmosphere of domestic insecurity against the Kurdistan Workers' Party to gain a few percent of the vote from the nationalist Turks and the Islamists Kurds who were not sure for whom they should vote. It should be added in an insecure environment, the Turks had reached the conclusion that a vote for the AKP is preferred over insecurity and war.

Three: the deterioration of the economic conditions of Turkey; one of the factors affecting the number of votes gained by AKP was the negative developments in Turkey’s economy over the last few months, especially after the election of 7 June to November. On the one hand, the Turkish currency was devaluated and the value of the Turkish stock exchange had fallen. Turkish people voted for AKP to achieve the former economic stability and get back to the favorable economic situation they experienced in the past.

Four: the European countries’ favor to Turkey, especially Germany; while the European Union was facing the crisis of refugees coming from the West Asia, the European countries, especially the German government led by Angela Merkel entered into a round of negotiations with Turkey that ended to the advantage of the Turkish government. AKP exploited it in its election campaigns. Besides, the European Union’s report about the situation in Turkey was not published and it was postponed until the election was held. The report was expected to contain criticism of the ruling party and government and would certainly have negative effects on the number of votes the AKP could win in the election. On the other hand, the European Union presented several proposals for Turkey, so that they can reach an agreement with Turkey on the issue of refugees in the country, the proposals included: the abolition of visas for Turkish people traveling to Europe, granting a three-billion-euro aid to the country on the issue of refugees and to begin the negotiations for facilitating Turkey’s joining the European Union.

Five: buying votes of heads of Kurdish tribes: the Kurds do not support the Kurdish parties in an integrated manner, and do not have a community with common goals and aspirations. On the other hands, the none-Kurdish parties, particularly the Islamist Justice and Development exploited them and won a lot of their votes. One of the main strategies of the ruling party to win the vote of the Kurds, was to get the consent of the tribal chiefs to vote for AKP; in the traditional and somewhat tribal community of the Kurdish people, this came as blow to the People’s Democratic Party which has been unable to attract the votes of the Kurdish tribes.

Eventually, it should be noted that one of the criticisms against AKP is that from 2011, concurrent with Islamic Awakening, the ruling party has shown no stability in its political behavior towards the democratization of Turkish society and the participation of ethnic and religious minorities. AKP’s approach in dealing with Syrian crisis and Bashar al-Assad showed that conflict of Davutoglu in the book entitled: “strategic depth” is nothing but motto and merely a subjective expression of soft words rather than the strategic agenda that could be operational. The results of the Turkish parliamentary election depicts a future for advocates of democracy similar to a situation in which a lonely deer is far from its mother and trapped in a dark forest. Perhaps, in this path, the only future perspective of the political situation, democratization and the peace process with the Kurds could be provided in the presence of a semi-democratic system under the ruling power of justice and development, which is in the hands of Recep Tayyip Erdogan that has its own preconditions for any changes and modifications.

By Alwaght