Alwaght- The Yemeni peace negotiations in Kuwait between national delegation, comprised of Ansarullah movement and the General People’s Congress, with the so-called “Riyadh delegation” for working out a peace deal to end the war in the country have seen an array of ups and downs during their holding period.

The talks witnessed several times of cessation and resumption due to differences between the opposing sides. Launched to obtain an agreed-upon peace framework, the dialogue process strives after a ceasefire deal, arms handover, retreatment from the captured cities, and forming a coalition government. Although there have been some progresses during the negotiations, the deep gaps have so far impeded the warring sides from realizing these four significant requirements on the ground.

Without doubt, one of the reasons obstructing conclusion of the underway national Yemeni negotiations, aside from the sizable rifts between the opposing sides, is setting unreasonable preconditions by the Riyadh-based delegation on the one hand and the non-commitment to the truce in some regions of war in Yemen on the other hand.

In fact Ansarullah movement believes that before discussing the main stage of the peace process which includes talks on heavy and mid-weight weapons delivery, retreatment from some cities, and forming the national unity government, there must be an agreement for fixing the faltering ceasefire. Then and in next steps the two sides could solve the sticking points by balanced steps as the negotiation process goes ahead.

It appears that the ceasefire is a case the delegation of the resigned president of Yemen Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, which has a full-scale backing of Saudi Arabia, wants to use as a pressure factor during the peace talks process so that in addition to getting concessions it could closely watch moves of Ansarullah and its allies including the army and General People's Congress and so thwart their advances southward and also towards Bab-el-Mandeb Strait— an issue that in the eyes of the opposite side not only wouldn't contribute to and speed up agreement but also result in escalation of tension and deterioration of the already-critical conditions, and so eliminates the progresses in dialogue so far made.

In fact, one of objectives of UN Special Envoy to Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed during the negotiations process is to keep the two sides around the negotiating table to keep safe the current backgrounds that could push the warring sides towards a settling framework.

Although the UN’s weak performance in the case of Yemen crisis since the beginning spurred the Saudi Arabian aggressive measures, and it touched its climax after the UN Security Council adopted the anti-Yemeni Resolution 2261, continuation of the present conditions not only could not drive the two sides into a productive process of talks but also it could keep standing the Saudi airstrikes on Yemen.

Another point, regardless of the current status of political negotiations, is the prospects of the current initiatives for Yemen. Due to opposite poles of power in Yemen, no hope could be set on success of dialogue and formation of the national unity government. The case even could be generalized to include the alliance of Ansarullah and the former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Actually the present-time tactical and interest-based coalition between these two could not be considered as a common strategy based on consistency. From this perspective, although Ansarullah movement is now a political and military power with social base in the Yemeni society, but the bargaining on the negotiating table would determine the degree and the type of future activity of this movement in the Yemen’ fault lines. With a consideration of the realities of Yemen, the weapons and ground would have the key role in this regard.

By Alwaght