Alwaght- The Turkish foreign policy during the past few years has been, to a large extent, under the influence of the Prime Minister and former Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Davutoglu’s Turkish foreign policy theory is based on the three prominent pillars of the “strategic depth”, “zero problems with neighbors”, and “neo-Ottomanism.”

Delving into Davutoglu’s strategic depth theory, we can figure out that this theory holds weak spots beside its strong points. The strong points include taking into consideration Turkey’s historical basis as an eastern country and shifting from the former foreign policy which pressed Ankara to work hard to become close to the West for the final aim of joining the European Union to cooperation with the regional countries with an aim to achieve a stable position in West Asia and Caucasus region. Therefore, when the zero tension policy of Turkey was unveiled by the ruling Justice and Development Party, it was found rational and widely accepted. Actually, the presenters of Turkish foreign policy’s doctrine aimed at transforming Ankara as the shining star of the region and even sought to make Ankara lead the so-called regional spring following the Arab uprisings after 2011.

Accordingly, Ahmet Davutoglu announced that Turkey would direct the Middle Eastern developments as the region’s leading country.

Meanwhile, despite the fact that adoption of Davutoglu’s foreign policy doctrine has transformed Ankara’s foreign policy and put on show Turkey’s diplomatic role especially in the West Asian region, the Turkish foreign policy in some cases has ended up facing serious challenges. In the current conditions, it has left negative impacts on its neighbors. With a look at all of Turkey’s diplomatic efforts to improve relations with the neighboring countries or its mediations to de-conflict regional disputes we can see that they have met with failure- this issue is crystal clear especially when it comes to Ankara’s relations with the neighboring Syria and Iraq.

Due to such ongoing regional crises as in Syria and Iraq, Turkey is grappling with an array of security troubles, as some others of its troubles hold the potentials for coming to surface in the future. The most significant challenges Ankara is dealing with as a result of the regional crises are:

- Decline to contain the terror group ISIS. With a consideration of its military and funding sources, odds are the terrorist group disobeys its supporters, moves out of control and thus pose a threat to Turkey. In fact, it is very likely that Ankara loses sway over ISIS terrorist organization. Thereby, the security crises as a result of presence of terrorist groups in both Syria and Iraq could also engulf Turkey, which shares borders with both of the crisis-hit countries.

- Instability and insecurity in the Turkish borders with Syria and Iraq in the long run could produce violence and insecurity also in Turkey. In other words, the presence of the radical and terror groups in countries sharing borders with Turkey is a deep challenge for this country’s foreign policy.

- Although, like Saudi Arabia, Turkey wishes to impair the Shiites in Iraq and restore the Sunnis to power in Baghdad, concerning the general order of the Middle East region Ankara is at odds with Riyadh. Such an Ankara-Riyadh disaccord is apparently observable when it comes to Syria and Egypt, and has the potentials to embitter the Turkish-Arab alliance. What broadens the gap between Saudi Arabia and Turkey is the point that Ankara advocates a Sunni-Muslim Brotherhood rule in the region while Riyadh backs a Sunni-Wahhabi rule. This lays bare the fact that Turkey in the long run and in all of the regional cases does not have an influential ally.

- An independent Kurdish region in Syria could bring forth long-term security challenges for Ankara, as it could provoke the Turkey-inhabited Kurds to seek autonomy and finally separate from Turkey. Since the eruption of the crisis in Syria in 2011, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed a great sensitivity towards the Kurdish movements, and even talked about establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria, where the countries shared borders, however, it appears even this Turkish policy has failed to make any gains, because the Kurds’ declaration of autonomy in Syria, with a consideration of their bonds to Turkey’s Kurdish groups especially Ankara’s archenemy the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), could on the one hand disturb settlement process of the Kurdish cause and on the other hand intensify the activity of anti-Turkey Kurdish factions across the Syrian cities. On top of these all, any motion by Iraq’s Kurdistan region for establishing an independent Kurdish state could also present a long-term challenge for security of Turkey.

- Iraq and Syria are both linking roads of Turkey with other countries and thus it economically matters for Turkey that they need to enjoy security. In the long run, Turkey needs to use the transit routes passing across Syria and Iraq for its own exports and imports. Since the beginning of crisis in Iraq, the Turkish exports to Iraq have seen a 30 percent drop. With regard to the prevalent insecurity and its expansion in Iraq, the two countries’ economic transaction would observe even more decline.

- Moving away from all of Iraq’s influential political players and supporting only one specific group among them has left a negative effect on Ankara’s role and influence in Iraq. The negativity is added to especially when other groups in Iraq come up with the notion that many of Erdogan’s advocacy of the Sunni groups in Iraq derives from Turkey’s sectarian dispositions.

- Due to the country’s diversified social structure and mosaic form of its social and political scene, Iraq’s political as well as security processes have regional dimensions and consequences. Lacking a powerful central government and thus observing a power vacuum after fall of Baathist regime of former President Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi political structure has allowed the regional players to take a bigger role in Iraq’s affairs. Having in mind that the process of Iraq’s developments is closely connected to interests and security of a majority of regional players and neighbors including Turkey, Israeli regime, Iran and Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, each of these countries influence further the political and security equations of Iraq through links to the country’s internal sides. This issue has complicated the Iraqi political and security conditions and even led to intensification of Baghdad’s security troubles.

The Arab world’s failure to come to terms with the new realities of Iraq has driven the Arab countries to support Iraq’s Sunni rebels and even resulted in arrival of extremist forces from these countries to Iraq. Although the Arab leaders have introduced measures to control their borders with Iraq and fight against terrorists and Al-Qaeda proponents, the terrorists in Iraq could also pose threats to Turkey itself.

By Al Waght