In Arabic language, there is a famous proverb which says: “A man drowning will grab any dry branch (to save his life)”. This proverb is expressive of Erdogan’s story these days.

About 3 weeks are left before the parliamentary, and of course crucial, elections in Turkey; elections that can change the future of Erdogan and Justice and Development Party (AKP); a fact that the Turkish authorities are aware of more than anyone else.

In the previous parliamentary elections held on June 1, the AKP lost its absolute majority for the first time over the last decade, so Erdogan and his party were to form a coalition government; a government that would certainly impede this party’s ambitions in the domestic and foreign arenas. Thus, Erdogan, in a predictable action, sought re-elections so that this time he can pull out the desired results from the ballot boxes. However, the recent polls are indicative of another fact.

The result of the polls conducted by Geziji Institute in Turkey indicates that the popularity of the ruling party has decreased by 1.6 percent with the approach of early elections on November 1st. Therefore, analysts believe that although the AKP leaders have this time set their sights on winning the absolute majority in the parliament and forming a single-party cabinet, reduction of the popularity of this party has made it difficult to achieve such a result.
Erdogan’s negative policies
Thus, the three weeks ahead are vital for Erdogan and his party. They have used all their power in order to be the sole rulers of Turkey’s political arena once more. In its annual meeting led by Davutoglu, the party made a great change in the Central Council so that it may win a better position. Nevertheless, the developments these days show that the AKP has nothing in store anymore and has adopted a negative policy instead of a positive policy. The arrest of opposing journalists and military attacks on Kurdish cities and also recent suicide attacks; this is the same policy which, a bit farther on the other side of the borders, ISIL is pursuing as the regional ally of Erdogan.

Yesterday’s suicide blasts in Ankara among the opponents of the government, as a result of which more than 200 people were killed and wounded, is not an unusual scene for Turkey these days. Previously, in the cities of Diyarbakir and Suruç, anti-government rallies had been the target of suicide attacks. Selahattin Demirta?, co-leader of Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), has said in his first remarks on the bombings before the peace meeting in Ankara: “This bombing has been a brutal massacre. This bombing is exactly what we had witnessed before the elections in Diyarbakir; exactly what we had witnessed in Suruç. The interesting point is that the cause of the bombings in Diyarbakir and Suruç has not been specified yet.”
Ankara blasts and the political future of Turkey
After the blast in the city of Suruç, Turkey witnessed a fundamental change in the domestic arena. The government formally discredited the two-year truce with the Kurds and launched a massive military campaign against the Kurds under the pretext of combating ISIL.

However, more than being harmful to the Kurds, this action led to the enhancement of this group both in the domestic and also the international arenas. In the domestic arena, it can be said that the PKK forces have managed to move their fight from the mountains into the cities for the first time. Also, military attacks on this group have not been much successful and haven’t been able to limit their operative power. Also, regarding the political changes, not only the votes of HDP, as the political offshoot of this group, haven’t decreased but rather, following the Kurdish-Turkish polarization in the country, this party has managed to establish a general mobilization in support of its cause.

In the international arena also, Selahattin Demirta?has managed to win the support of countries like Sweden and Germany and the Syrian offshootof the PKK has also managed to win the support of major powers such as America and Rusiia. More interestingly, Massoud Barzani, PKK’s rival in Iraq and Erdogan’s Kurdish ally is not in a favorable situation these days and in yesterday’s clashes in Iraq's Kurdistan region against the long stay of Barzani in power, some people were killed and injured.
The pretext of security

About two weeks ago, Mehmet Yilmaz, a Turkish analyst, wrote in a note for Hürriyet: “The most important issue in November 1st elections is the security of elections. The ballot boxes must not be moved under the pretext of provision of security in elections; this is contrary to the electoral law and the Constitution”. Yilmaz has apparently predicted rightly. Many analysts say that Erdogan will try to either remove HDP, its main rival, from the scene of elections under the pretext of security issues or not hold the elections in Kurdish regions for similar reasons.

He may achieve his ambitions in this way. It is not without reason that yesterday PKK declared a one-sided truce. Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has asked its militants to stop their guerilla activities in Turkey unless when attacked by Turkish forces. This action seems to have been taken on the request of HDP so that thereby the ruling party will not engage in electoral fraud under the pretext of insecurity.

This article was written by Alireza Rezakhah for Khorasan News on Oct. 11, 2015. Alireza Rezakhah is an Iranian journalist and Middle East analyst. He was the editor of the international and diplomatic section of the Mehr news agency, the international editor of Khorasan newspaper and editor in chief in Khorasan diplomatic. He has PhD in political science.