Iran will feel it must retaliate against US, say military analysts

The Guardian | Dan Sabbagh: Tehran likely to ‘seek revenge’ through proxy militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iran will feel it has little choice but to respond US assassination of Qassem Suleimani, according to military analysts who expect Tehran to seek a calibrated response – even though it risks further provoking an already unpredictable Donald Trump.

That would echo the thinking of western intelligence, which believes that Iran has recently pursued a policy of trying to embarrass or irritate the US in an attempt to persuade Washington its best policy could be to end to its crippling campaign of economic sanctions.

Sir Tom Beckett, the executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – Middle East, said he believed Iran would first consider how to “seek revenge” via the network of regional proxy militias built up by Suleimani over the past 20 years.

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