Sunday 17 February 2019 - 15:51
Story Code : 338837
The risks of Guaido's political victory for Iran
Iranian Diplomacy - Irans former ambassador toVenezuelabelieves: Iran-Venezuela ties will be undermined if Juan Guaid wins and Iran may be hurt because of US dominance over Venezuelas oil resources and its impact on global prices.
Tensions in Venezuelas domestic politics have been growing. Iran enjoys good relations with the government of Nicols Maduro and it is not clear in case of Guadios victory, who is a US supporter and seeks to restore ties with Israel, what will happen to Irans investments inVenezuelawhich have been underway since the era of Hugo Chavez. On the other hand, regarding Donald Trumps order to impose oil sanctions onVenezuelato show US support for Guaido, now the question is to what extent can those sanctions affect Irans oil exports?
Ahmad Sobhani, Irans former ambassador toVenezuelaand former director general for Latin America and West Asian Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, says: The Chavez emergence inVenezuelaas a popular and independence-seeking movement infuriated the US and its allies including Israel despite the fact thatVenezuelapresently enjoys many freedoms and even the association of Venezuela-based Israelis and Zionists is officially active in that country. However, Israel has always been involved in behind the scenes propaganda against the government of Venezuela. It was also proven that a number of weapons used in the last coup attempt inVenezuelawere Israeli.
Sobhani added: This is why Israel has supported Guaido in the recent leader-making show in Venezuela. Therefore, if the Venezuelan opposition takes office and revives Tel Aviv-Caracas relations again thenVenezuelaties with countries like Iran will be weakened.
Commenting on the fate of Irans investments inVenezuelaafter the victory of Guaido, Irans former ambassador toVenezuelasaid: The truth is that Iran never had many investments in Venezuela. Over four billion dollars of investments have been made in that country by Irans previous governments, 50 to 60 percent of which was related to technical and engineering services offered by the Iranian private sector in the field of residential construction projects inVenezuelaand they were all paid in full. Another project was related to a cement factory which was also settled. There was also a joint tractor-manufacturing factory which had sold its products in advance and even at a price higher than what was sold inside Iran, but it was still economically profitable for Venezuela.
He added: Irans 11thand 12thgovernments have not been involved in economic relations withVenezuelaand that is why trade volume between the two countries is presently near zero. However, Turkey has increased its trade ties withVenezuelato more than one billion dollars while Ankara played no active role inVenezuelain the time of Irans past governments. Therefore, presently, Iran has no major economic interests inVenezuelawhich could be jeopardized by the victory of the latters opponents in that country.
Commenting on the impact of Venezuelas oil sanctions on Irans oil exports, Sobhani said: Currently,Venezuelais not exporting much oil on the global market and its stoppage will not in favor Iran in any way. Moreover, the low amount of Venezuelan oil exports has no specific market. Venezuelan officials have exported part of the countrys oil to Russia and another part is being sent to China in return for the latters commitments in Venezuela. However, if Guaido wins, the US will dominate Venezuelas oil which forms 20 percent of world oil [resources]. Consequently, in addition to Venezuelas oil resources and shale oil, the US will have a grip on global energy with its good relations with certain Arab countries. In that case and referring to Venezuelas potential for increasing its oil production, the US can affect oil prices by increasing production and consequently damaging Iran in this respect.
Source:Persia Digest
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