IRNA- A leading Indian strategist believes that the US demand for cutting import of the Iranian oil to zero will adversely affect the economies of the developing and under-developed nations.


Ashok Dhar who is the Director of the Kolkata branch of one of India�s top most think tanks called 'Observer Research Foundation (ORF)' made the remarks in an exclusive interview with the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) in New Delhi.

Commenting on 'India�s bold move to continue oil imports from Iran in November despite the imposition of the US sanctions on Iran oil industry from Nov. 04, 2018', the analyst said: �It is a matter of great satisfaction that the Government of India has engaged with the USA to make it understand the complexity and enormity of India's dependence on imports of crude oil from Iran and see crude imports continuing.

'India has a well-run refining sector with some refineries being amongst the world's best as per Nelson complexity index,' Dhar said.

'While some can process a diverse basket of crudes with deep secondary processing capability, refining margins of some are adversely affected by change in crude diet and plan and have technical processing limitations. In an international regime of free, transparent and open trade, such restrictions are unnecessary and affect the development needs of the developing and under-developed economies,� he stressed.

�It is good to see that India maintains its earlier practice of not abiding by the unilateral sanctions by any major power and honors sanctions only if mandated by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). This has been a time-tested approach,' he said.

The director of the ORF's Kolkata branch went on to say that the world has moved from bi-polar to uni-polar to multi polar construct and India is a much more powerful nation today than it was few decades earlier.

Dhar urged the new players on the international scene to join hands and assume a unified stance in promoting non-discriminatory international partnership.

'In fact, all major crude importing countries like China, India, Japan and EU must come together to promote a universal, rule-based, non-discriminatory and equitable international partnership in line with the goal number 17 of the Sustainable Development Goals of UNO for ensuring un-interrupted flow of crude oils at prices acceptable to producers and consumers for overall good of the global economy,� he said.

Elsewhere in his interview with the Iranian official news agency, the seasoned analyst of the energy issues touched on the major global and regional energy issues.

He stressed the necessity of 'advocating the revival of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project as a way to counter the global warming,' saying, �It may also be an opportune time to re-visit the supply of natural gas from Iran to reduce the carbon foot print in South Asia.'

'A recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that global average temperatures could breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius level by as early as 2030,' Dhar said.

'With the world's second largest reserves of natural gas of about 34 trillion cubic meters (about 18% of global reserves), Iran can help meet major energy demand of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh through a cross country pipeline and lower the carbon footprint as transformational shift to renewable and electric mobility may have a longer period of transition,� he reiterated.

�Of course, condition precedent for it to happen is a right geo-political, geo-economic and international environment and support,� he added.

Meantime, the Indian strategist elaborated on the role played by the modern technologies to meet the future energy needs of the mankind.

�The technology has played a pivotal role in making the renewable energies meet demand of the modern society. Major strides have been made in design of the wind turbines and in the domain of photovoltaic for harnessing solar energy. The cost of generating solar power has decreased manifold in the past one decade due to improved technology and productivity,� Dhar said.

Answering to a question on the recent statement by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the International Solar Alliance (ISA) will replace the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a major supplier of energy across the world in future, he said: �While it is true that the International Solar Alliance is a game changer initiative, it is unlikely to replace OPEC as the major supplier of energy in at least the next two or three decade.

'As per last BP [British Petroleum] energy outlook 2040, world is going to see an increase in the global energy demand to meet the economic aspirations of China and India and rising prosperity in the rest of the world,' he said.

However, Dhar stressed that the renewable energies are expected to be the fastest growing energy source of the globe.

'However, the extent of increase in energy demand is likely to be offset by accelerating gains in energy efficiency. Energy demand is likely to increase by only around one third over next 25 years. The renewable energy is expected to be the fastest growing energy source, accounting for 40% of the increase in primary energy but the demand for oil and other liquid fuels is likely to grow over much of the energy outlook, but gradually plateau in the later years.�