23 Apr 2024
Tuesday 9 October 2018 - 16:04
Story Code : 322608

IMF reverses Iran growth, lifts Saudi forecast

Bourse and Bazaar | AFP: The International Monetary Fund on Tuesdaypredicted Iran's economy will sink deep in the red due to renewed US sanctionsbut forecast increased Saudi growth on the back of higher oil production.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said the oil-dependent economy ofthe Islamic republic is expected to shrink by 1.5 percent this year and by 3.6percent in 2019.

In May, before US President Donald Trump announced reinstating sanctionsagainst Tehran, the IMF had projected Iran's economy would grow by 4.0 percentin 2018 and again next year.

The IMF said the Iranian economy was now expected to contract over the nexttwo years "on account of reduced oil production, before returning to modestpositive growth in 2020-23.

Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iranand world powers in May, and his administration reimposed a round of sanctionson the Islamic republic in August.

Iranian crude exports, which reach some 2.5 million barrels per daynormally, have plunged by over half a million bpd and are expected to divefurther when expanded sanctions on oil take effect next month, deprivingTehran of its main source of income.

The IMF also sharply slashed growth forecasts for the whole Middle East andNorth Africa region due to the slump in the Iranian economy and increasedenergy costs.

It now projects the MENA region to grow by 2.0 percent this year and 2.5percent in 2019, 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent lower, respectively, than itforecast in April.

"The downward revisions reflect to an important extent the worsening ofgrowth prospects for Iran, following the reimposition of US sanctions," itsaid.

The IMF, however, lifted its projections for economic growth in SaudiArabia, the region's biggest economy, and its oil-rich neighbours in the Persian Gulf.

It said the Saudi economy, which contracted by 0.9 percent last year, isexpected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent next year, raisingprevious projections by 0.5 percent.

The growth is being "driven by a pickup in non-oil economic activity and aprojected increase in crude oil production in line" agreed by the Organizationof the Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent producers, the IMF said.

Oil prices, which account for about 80 percent of Saudi public income, haveincreased by more than 70 percent since June last year to over USD 80 a barrel.

The London-based Capital Economics think-tank said last week that revenuesof Saudi Arabia and the five other Persian Gulf states are expected to rise by USD 200billion this year compared to 2017 due to high oil prices and output.
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