Bourse and Bazaar | AFP: Iran faces a potentially crushing loss of oil�exports when US sanctions return in November, but the impact could be blunted�by its experience of working around embargoes.

When Iran faced its toughest international sanctions between 2012 and 2015,�analysts say it found a number of creative solutions, from repainting and�renaming ships to switching off their tracking devices.

Those tactics have continued.

"We find those tankers quite often, leaving and entering Iran in a covert�fashion with their transponder turned off," said Samir Madani, co-founder of�TankerTrackers.com, which monitors the oil trade.

"We spot them through satellites. I'd say several vessels a month," he told�AFP.

Analysts expect such behavior to ramp up when US sanctions on Iran's oil�industry return on�November 5, following Washington's withdrawal from the�nuclear deal in May.

US pressure has already caused a 24 percent drop in Iran's sales between�May and August, according to Bloomberg.

The big surprise has been cuts by Asian buyers, which analysts expected to�resist US pressure, notably a 35 percent drop by China and 49 percent by�India, according to the Eurasia Group consultancy.

"We underestimated the degree to which New Delhi and Beijing would concede�to Washington's demands," it said in a briefing note.

Eurasia Group said wider geopolitics are at play: India is looking to�deepen strategic ties with the US, while China may wish to avoid a fresh spat�when it is already embroiled in a bitter trade dispute with Washington.

Iran was exporting 2.7 million barrels of oil per day in May, but that has�already fallen to 2.1 million.

Overall, Eurasia Group predicts the country's sales will fall by a further�0.9 million barrels per day to 1.2 million by November.

That would mean a loss of some USD 2-2.5 billion a�month, at current prices.

'Cat and Mouse'

But analysts say Washington's goal of reducing Iran's oil sales to zero is�unrealistic.

Iran has the world's fourth-largest reserves, and many countries�particularly in Asia�rely on its supplies and have refineries designed for�its particular flavor of heavy crude.

And Tehran has many tried and tested ways to keep oil flowing.

It has already increased price discounts since May, worth around USD 10-15�million a month to large importers like China and India compared with last�year, said Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.

"Buyers can pay in kind, trade in other currencies, or extend credit�even keep the money in an escrow account in Switzerland and wait until these�sanctions are over. India had a deal like that last time," said Madani.

If Iran can get its oil to a friendly port, it could be blended with oil�from elsewhere and resold, said Thijs Van de Graaf, assistant professor for�international politics at the University of Ghent.

"Iran played a cat and mouse game last time... and will probably do so�again," he told AFP.

It also has more aggressive options, with President Hassan Rouhani recently�restating an old threat to block the vital Strait of Hormuz through which�around a third of the world's seaborne oil passes every day.

Rouhani announced last week that Iran was moving its main oil terminal out�of the Gulf to a port in the Oman Sea, so that its tankers would no longer�need to pass through the strait, giving it more scope to disrupt supplies.

Pressure on Europe

Iran says it will not accept major drops in its oil sales, putting pressure�particularly on Europe, which was buying more than a fifth of its oil, to�resist US demands.

The EU strongly opposed Washington's decision to scrap the nuclear deal and�has vowed to introduce a package of measures to protect trade with Iran.

But European firms are highly vulnerable to US sanctions.

Shipping, banking and insurance firms have already backed out of Iran and�oil purchases are down by 35 percent.

"If we cannot continue (the previous) level of sales even after the�European package has been implemented, then that is a red line for us," warned�deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on state television.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned recently that Iran would "set�aside" the nuclear deal if it was no longer receiving the economic benefits it�promised.

One slight upside for Iran is that oil prices are already rising due to the�squeeze caused by the looming US sanctions.

Some analysts predict prices could exceed USD 100 per barrel, from the current�level of around USD 70.

The United States has pressured its ally Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to�compensate for the loss of Iranian supplies.

"In theory, it is perfectly possible to have an increased price of oil that�entirely compensates for the loss of exports. That's why the US-Saudi�relationship is key here," said Van der Graaf.