29 Mar 2024
Wednesday 8 August 2018 - 11:44
Story Code : 315059

Int'l business analyst explains who is biggest winner in anti-Iranian sanctions



Sputnik - Radio Sputnik has discussed the newly re-imposed US sanctions on Iran with Lawk Ghafuri, a London-based political analyst, who specializes in international business and economy.




US Secretary ofState Mike Pompeo has warned that Washington will enforce sanctions onIran, adding that the restrictions onTehran are aimed atpushing back againstthe country's allegedly malign activity. Pompeo also said that the Iranian people are unhappy withthe failure oftheir own leadership todeliver oneconomic promises.

Sputnik: The European Union has announced that it will be blocking the USs anti-Iranian sanctions. Whats your take onthis? Did this move come asa surprise toyou?

Lawk Ghafuri:Actually, the move bythe EU and the US byre-imposing the sanctions onIran is no surprise because Trump and his administration atthe beginning have described that the Iran deal is a bad deal that Barack Obama, the ex-president ofthe US, implemented. We have toremember that Iran right now is having negotiations withthe European Union topull back the United States intothe deal. But I look intoas less likely tohappen aslong asthe Iranian regime is refusing tonegotiate another deal withthe United States.

Sputnik: What consequences can this development have onEuropean businesses withoperations inIran and the US? I think the interesting thing is what effect has the United Stated withdrawing fromthe JCPOA two or three months ago now, and, obviously, their determination withregard topressurizing Iran and given the indifference that the other five members have actually had towardsit, has this decision bythe US toactually withdraw had a negative effect asmuch asthey wanted it tohave inthe last three months?

Lawk Ghafuri:Regarding the business inIran, especially the international businesses and companies, it definitely got affected bythe United States pulling outof the Iranian nuclear deal. We have noticed that, likeweeks beforethat, a lot ofinternational companies and businesses have been affected, and they have already left Iran due tothe US re-imposing the sanctions. The European companies, especially automotive companies, tobe honest, have been hugely affected bythe US sanctions. But, apart fromthat, the businesses and the Iranian rial have been hugely affected, and I think it will only be affected even more bytime, especially when the sanctions are going tobe activated; and the companies and even the Iranian currency are going tofall even further.

Sputnik: How can the strain onrelations betweenWashington and Brussels be assessed? We know that, given the situation that President Trump has had withhis strategy ofisolation and protection, theres been constant pressure onthe global territories China, Mexico, Canada, the EU. What effect is this going tohave now? We had the recent meeting betweenJean-Claude Juncker and President Trump, there seems tobe some kind ofdecision and compromise butjust inverbal means? Is the strain going tocontinue betweenthe two parties?

Lawk Ghafuri:I think aslong asthe Trump administration and the EU are having a lot ofdifferences, especially aboutthe trade, I think that this strain is going tobe continuing untiltheres real negotiating onthe table regarding the trade and regarding the economy. I think Trump is going toa policy that makes them more likea predator, tobe honest. To make the European Union and tomake the other countries, China and other countries who are trading withthe US totrade according tothe conditions ofthe United States, ofTrump.I think thats going tohave a big impact not only onthe United States and the EU trading, butits going tobe impacting all the trade aroundthe world.

Sputnik: Earlier Iran has announced that they will allow exchange offices tobuy and sell hard currencies forthe purposes such asforeign trade. What do you think aboutthis move and its potential effects? I suppose this is one ofthe routes the government had totake, given the pressure thats been put tobear fromthe US onthe economy and trade.

Lawk Ghafuri:Actually, we know that the protests inall ofthe cities inIran are going onand Iran is trying todo, aslong asthey can, toget overthe sanctions and toget overthe economy crisis theyre going through. I think their letting the foreign offices tobuy hard currencies is going tohave a positive impact onthe Iranian regime. I think the question here is whether Iran can survive the sanctions that are going tobe active today onthem, and, most importantly, the sanctions that are going tohappen and be active onthe 4th ofNovember. Thats going tobe a huge one forthe Iranian regime, their oil exportation and all the resources shipment. Thats going tobe the hard time starting forIran, I think.

Sputnik: From your point ofview, whos more likely tobenefit fromthe newly re-imposed US sanctions onIrans economy inthe long run? From the experts that weve talked to, it looks asthough its China. Would you agree withthat, or maybe its India aswell?

Lawk Ghafuri:I totally agree withthat. I think China and India are the biggest winners inthe Iranian sanctions. As these sanctions are going tolimit the Iranian economy and their trading withother countries, butChina and India are going toexport and import a lot ofresources and a lot ofproducts fromIran and vice versa. I think the sanctions onIran have two ways. The first is that the Iranian regime is going tobe affected. The biggest loser inthe Iranian sanctions is the people.

 

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