20 Apr 2024
Washington Post | Last week began with a bang: Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a leading GOP voice on foreign policy, madestartling commentsdisparaging President Trump, particularly his handling of foreign policy. Midweek, the world awaited Trumps decision about the Iran nuclear deal. Even some who had opposed the Iran deal in 2015called for staying in.

The week ended with Trumpsannouncementthat, rather than scrapping the deal, he would press Congress to amend the legislation associated with the deal to address what he called its many serious flaws. As a coda, at the end of the week Corkerrenewedhis public complaints about Trumps undercutting of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

What does all this mean about the politics of foreign policy, nearly a year after Trumps election? Here are four takeaways from last weeks events.

1. Corkers comments may have opened a door.

Start with Corker. After his highly unusual comments about what he regards as Trumps incompetence, some observers argued we maysoon see morepublic GOP criticism of Trump. As Jonathan Bernsteinpoints out, such direct criticism is unrealistic.

But Corkers comments can still matter in less visible ways, particularly on foreign policy.ScholarsofCongress and foreign policyhave long noted that Congress constrains the president in more ways than may be obvious. For instance, when formulating policy, presidents have to anticipate how Congress will react.

Comments from someone like Corker a GOP foreign policy leader at least until he retires may give cover to other Republicans who want to differ with Trump. We saw some of that last week, when some congressional RepublicansurgedTrump not to scrap the Iran deal.

Even such comparatively mild intraparty criticism of the president matters. As Matthew Baum and Tim Groeling haveshown, such signals are likely to be reported by the news media, and are surprising and informative to voters. There is alsointraparty signaling within Congress, where those who are less informed on foreign policy are watching those with greater experience.

Corkers comments made room for a wider range of GOP reaction not just on the Iran deal but on Trumps future foreign policy moves.

2. Trump is also constrained within his own administration.

Reportssuggestthat many top Trump advisers also advocated staying in the Iran deal, and tried to get Trump to kick action to Congress so he could decertify without blowing up the agreement.

Some of that support came out publicly, as when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joseph Dunford,told Congressthat staying in the deal was in the national interest.

Such cues from adviserscan matter politically, because they can affect both Congress and the public in this case, reinforcing the challenge from within Trumps own party.

3. Fracturing elite cues make it harder for the administration to send coherent signals abroad.

The Corker comments, the GOP hesitation on the Iran deal and the public airing of internal administration debate continue a theme: The Trump administration finds it difficult to send coherent signals domestically and internationally about its policies.

Theoriesofdomestic supportfor government policy usually start from the premise that the government has a clear policy for which it wants to build support. But for the Trump administration, it is difficult to know on any given day what official policy is and who supports or speaks for it. And thats before we ask whether the presidents party in Congress will support him.

What does this mean for signaling U.S. policy internationally? On the one hand, it is harder for Trump to display domestic consensus for his preferred policy, which in this case, seems to be scrapping the Iran deal. Both his party in Congress and other governments dont know what may happen next or who exactly supports which options. That makes it hard to send acrediblemessage internationally, as Roseanne McManus hasnotedhere at The Monkey Cage.

On the other hand, Trumps apparent desire to rip up the Iran deal seems to have pushed Congress which hasdivided viewson the deal itself to agree the deal was important to preserve.

Why? One reason may be concern for the credibility of U.S. commitments. As Sarah Kreps hasshown, elites in democracies often balance domestic disdain for international commitments with the costs of reneging on agreements. States that break their word risk being labeled as unreliable and may lose out on future cooperation with allies. (And in this case, U.S. allies arestanding by the deal.)

This might, in turn, signal that Congress isreclaimingsome importance on foreign policy and that the world doesnt have to view Trumps moves as abroader signal of American unreliability.Scholarshavelong debatedwhether its thereputationof a country or its leader that matters an important question not only for the duration of the Trump administration, but also for how states viewpotential cooperation with the next president.

4. Elites are holding one another accountable but dont expect quick or dramatic results.

On the morning after the election, Iwrotethat despite partisan polarization:
most foreign policy elites, in both parties, are internationalist, favor maintaining U.S. alliances and oppose authoritarianism. They will the ones to pay attention to the details of Trumps foreign policy and sound the alarm if it trends in dangerous directions. Even with Republican control of Congress, these voices may be heard, especially if the divide between Trump and Republican foreign policy elites persists.
Last week, concerns about Trump burst into the open right before an important foreign policy debate. That showed that Trump cant just get everything he wants on foreign policy. But having elites hold a president accountable can be slow and halting.

For example,someobserverscalledfor Corker to hold hearings akin to those that Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman J. William Fulbright held on Vietnam in 1966. The Fulbright hearings were an important signal that Lyndon Johnson faced resistance from his own party; it was the beginning of fracturing theelite consensuson Vietnam.

But it was two more years until Johnson decided not to run for reelection, and the war dragged on even under his successor. Presidents can do a lotunilaterallyon foreign policy, and Trump may try to work around Congress.

Yet Corkers comments like Fulbrights hearings will have consequences, even if we dont immediately see dramatic change.
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