28 Mar 2024
Tuesday 29 August 2017 - 10:09
Story Code : 274050

Anti-Iran sanctions: 'US tool to provoke Tehran into ripping nuclear deal up'



Sputnik - Neither Iran nor its business partners are interested in Tehran's exit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), expert on Mideast affairs Vladimir Sazhin told Sputnik, explaining that contrary to the panic-mongers' belief Iran won't be able to create an atomic bomb within weeks in case it withdraws from the nuclear deal.




Those panic-mongers who speculate that Iran could create atomic weapons ina matter ofdays incase it withdraws fromthe nuclear agreement, may sleep well: inthe coming years Tehran won't be able tocreate a nuclear bomb, Vladimir Sazhin, expert onMiddle Eastern affairs atthe Institute forOriental Studies ofthe Russian Academy ofSciences, told Sputnik.
"Yes, indeed, if the [Iranian] nuclear program was resumed infull (while the Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA) allows Tehran toenrich uranium upto 5 percent) the Iranians could have managed toproduce 20 percent enriched uranium withina few weeks, which inany event couldn't have become the basis fornuclear weapons," Sazhin emphasized inhis interview withSputnik Iran.


The expert referred toa remark made byAli Akbar Salehi, the head ofthe Atomic Energy Organization ofIran (AEOI), concerning Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's threat toabandon the nuclear deal inresponse toWashington's ramping upof anti-Iranian sanctions.

"If we make the decision [to withdraw fromthe JCPOA], we would be able toresume the process of [uranium] 20 percent enrichment infive days," Salehi told the state-owned broadcaster IRIB onAugust 22.

However, Sazhin expressed doubts aboutthe possibility ofTehran unilaterally ripping the much-discussed nuclear deal up.
"Is it possible? To date, this is highly unlikely. And here is why: President Rouhani has always said that the protection ofthe JCPOA is and will be the top priority ofhis foreign policy. His political activity has been closely connected withthe development, conclusion and implementation ofthe nuclear deal," the Russian academic emphasized.


According toSazhin, one shouldn't be surprised byRouhani's promises towithdraw fromthe JCPOA inresponse toUS sanctions sincethere are lots ofinfluential forces withinIran that oppose the nuclear deal. The expert believes that the main addressee ofthe Iranian president's tough rhetoric is the domestic audience.

The question then arises: Will Iran really benefit fromexiting the JCPOA?

Hardly so, the expert says.

Sazhin pointed outthat due tothe partial lifting ofthe sanctions onthe Islamic Republic ofIran, the Rouhani government has managed toachieve significant results.

"In 2013, [Iran's] GDP fell byalmost 6 percent per year, whereas in2016 the country's economy showed an increase ofabout 4-6 percent," Sazhin said, adding that the fight againstinflation also bore its fruit decreasing froman unofficial 40 percent toabout 10 percent.

Furthermore, the conclusion ofthe Iranian nuclear deal two years ago ended Tehran's isolation and opened the door tothe country's economic development. The expert stressed that overthe pasttwo years dozens offoreign leaders and businessmen have visited the country concluding billion-dollar deals.
"Iran's refusal tofulfill the requirements ofthe nuclear deal would not only have dragged the country intoan abyss ofnew sanctions and, accordingly, an economic crisis, but, perhaps, would have pushed it tothe brink ofwar," Sazhin surmised referring tothe possibility ofIsrael's use offorce againstTehran.


However, there is more tothe Iran nuclear deal issue thanmeets the eye, the academic noted.
"Perhaps, the anti-Iranian actions onpart of [US] President [Donald] Trump and his supporters are precisely aimed atprovoking Tehran towithdraw fromthe JCPOA," the expert suggested, explaining that it would give Iran's opponents "a legitimate reason toimpose substantial sanctions and perhaps not only sanctions onTehran."


"Tehran sees this trap and understands what the consequences will be incase it falls intoit," Sazhin highlighted.

The expert noted that one should keep inmind that a large number ofcountries are highly interested inbolstering cooperation withIran: Russia, China, EU member states, India, South Korea and the countries ofSoutheast Asia are demonstrating their willingness tostrengthen ties withTehran.

"Therefore, inthe current situation, incase nothing extraordinary happens, Iran or the US' exit fromthe JCPOA doesn't appear probable," Sazhin told Sputnik. "However, it is possible that the Americans will try toexert pressure onIran byother means, not related tothe JCPOA or the Iranian nuclear issue ingeneral. But that's another story."

On July 14, 2015, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany, officially referred toas the P5+1 group, concluded the JCPOA withIran. The deal envisaged a gradual lifting ofanti-Iran sanctions inexchange forTehran's guarantees that its nuclear program will remain peaceful innature.

On August 3, 2017, US President Trump signed a bill onsanctions againstRussia Iran, and North Korean intolaw. The new legislation, amongother measures, imposes restrictions onIran's ballistic missile program and individuals who facilitate Tehran's conventional military capabilities.

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