28 Mar 2024
Sputnik - Three members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have severed diplomatic relations with Doha in response to allegations revelations Qatar finances terrorist groups. Egypt, the Maldives and Yemen have followed suit. However, a regional expert has told Sputnik the move is be a smokescreen.





Bahrain wasthe first tocutties, citing Qatar's "insistence" on "destabilizing security and stability" withinits borders, and "interference" inthe country' affairs. Not long after, Abu Dhabi, CairoandRiyadh issued similar statements.

Saudi Arabia has canceled thebroadcasting license ofAl Jazeera (funded byDoha) and has begun closing its offices inthe country and there are suggestions other countries inthe region may follow suit. The Kingdom went one further thanits peers, however, insuspending all air and sea communication withQatar, ordering all Qatari nationals leave its territory withina fortnight and banning all Qataris (savefor "pilgrims")fromentering the country.

?Observers witheven a cursory understanding ofMiddle East politics may splutter atSaudi Arabia's apparent concern overQatar's covert terrorism funding, given the Kingdom is notorious forfinancing the dissemination ofWahhabism the extremist strain ofIslam driving most ofthe world's prominent Muslim terror groups and it is a struggle toname a single Islamic extremist faction that has not received funding fromRiyadh insome form.

However, BabakMohammadzadeh, a PhD researcher atthe University ofCambridge's Department ofPolitics and International Studies, suggests the en-masse ostracism ofQatar has much more todo withlong-held concerns amongthe GCC overQatar's "independent" approach toforeign policy.
"Qatar has always pursued a more independent line, cultivating ties acrossthe region and involving itself inplaces such asLebanon and Yemen. The way the country relates toIran has also produced rampant concerns inRiyadh Saudi Arabia and others are keen tocontrol Qatar inthis regard. The traditional GCC line onIran has been that there needs tobe strong opposition toIran's aggressive pursuits acrossthe region, butQatar has so far been unwilling tosubmit tothat. This is all aimed atbringing Qatar toheel," Mr. Mohammadzadeh told Sputnik.


?Moreover, he believes Riyadh's use ofthe term "terrorism" and related phraseology is deliberately designed tocloud its real motives namely, its specific geopolitical aims inthe region, particularly those relating toIran. As such, whenever Saudi spokespeople talk ofterrorism it's important tobe "critical and cautious" and he warns againstemploying the terminology advocated and espoused bythe Kingdom.


?Saudi Arabia is a close ally ofthe US a toxic marriage reaffirmed bya May visit tothe Kingdom byPresident Donald Trump, which inaugurated the largest single arms sales deal inUnited States history raising questions aboutwhether the US will support or oppose the regional move. Nonetheless, asQatar is likewise a close US ally inthe region, it's questionable whether American support forthe Saudi-led actions will be reflexive.
"Trump's visit toSaudi Arabia was a major motivator behindthe actions being taken againstQatar currently. As he has so strongly backed anti-Iran rhetoric, Saudi Arabia and their close allies felt emboldened totake these unprecedented steps. Still, it's hard tosay though whether the US will support them. Rex Tillerson has said there will be no material difference tohow the US and Qatar cooperate militarily asa result ofthis move," Mr. Mohammadzadeh added.


US reticence tofully support Riyadh's actions is made particularly likely given Qatar hosts the sprawling Al Udeid Air Base, the US' largest base inthe region and a major jumping offpoint forUS air force actions inthe region. Qatar will, Mr. Mohammadzadeh believes, be particularly keen tomaintain this structure, given it serves asthe country's most important security guarantees.

What is likewise clear is the impact onQatar ofthis shift could be catastrophic. The country is scheduled tohost the World Cup in2022 and if the diplomatic crisis is not resolved, it would obviously have profound consequences forthe tournament. Moreover, it will deleteriously affect businesses working acrossthe Gulf. If Saudi plans toban and remove all Qatari nationals fromthe country withina fortnight materialize, Qatar risks becoming "increasingly isolated," Mr. Mohammadzadeh warned.

"This country is dependent onmany international linkages tosurvive its non-oil imports go throughSaudi airspace and Saudi-administered waterways. It will certainly be problematic forthe country tomaintain itself. In terms ofother regional consequences, Qatar's isolation could have consequences forthe Iranian nuclear deal. Oman and Qatar have had an important say inhow this deal was negotiated it may cause Iran tochange course," he concluded.


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