19 Apr 2024
Sputnik- On January 23, Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, is scheduled to host talks between the Syrian government and the opposition, where Russia, Turkey and Iran will serve as guarantors of the negotiations. Russian media reviewed the reasons why any deal made in this Asian city has the potential to succeed where similar efforts failed in Geneva.

Talks onSyrias political future are scheduled totake place inKazakhstans capital Astana onJanuary 23.

Russia and Turkey last month brokered a ceasefire inthe ravaged country, which was backed bythe opposing sides inthe protracted war butwas done withoutthe involvement ofWashington, a negotiator inprevious ceasefires. "Taking intoconsideration that the agreements onthe peace talks inAstana were achieved amongPresidents Putin and Erdogan, there is not much choice left forthe Syrian opposition," Russian online newspaper Vzglyad has said inits analysis onthe issue.

It further specified that bythe Syrian opposition it meant not only the rebel groups which depend onTurkey butalso pro-Saudi forces, asthey understand only too clearly that their refusal totake part inthe talks will automatically label them asterrorists alongsidethe Islamic State (Daesh) and al-Nusra Front. "Therefore marking them astargets forairstrikes bythe Russian aviation," the outlet says. "Hence, Astana is expected tohost quite a serious delegation ofthe Syrian opposition. And even if Damascus and the rebels won't sit downat the negotiating table, limiting themselves only tocontacts viaintermediaries, the chances that a ceasefire will be signed remain very high. And it would be a sensation," it adds.

As Russia, Turkey and Iran act asthe organizers ofthe negotiations and guarantors ofthe ceasefire, when it is signed it will be only too clear that these three countries will continue further forcing peace onSyria.

All the rest, including the part ofthe Syrian armed opposition which opts not tocome forthe talks inAstana and certain external players, will be forced tojoin the process. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing seriously forthe upcoming negotiations. President Putin is holding phone conversations withthe Turkish, Iranian and Syrian leadership and his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev. On Friday, the Russian Foreign Ministry held extended Russian-Chinese consultations onSyria, withthe director ofthe Russian Foreign Ministrys Middle East and North Africa Department, Sergei Vershinin, and the Chinese Governments Special Envoy forSyria, Xie Xiaoyan, who is currently inMoscow ona working visit.

"The sides discussed the current military and political situation inSyria, ways toenforce and consolidate the ceasefire, and a resumption ofthe negotiating process inorder tomove a Syrian crisis solution closer. The Chinese official was briefed indetail onRussias efforts toorganize an international meeting ona Syrian settlement inAstana," reads the statement onthe official website ofthe ministry.

Next week, Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh is planning topay a visit toMoscow and Egypt and Iraq are also expected tobe invited toAstana. In addition, The Washington Post reported onFriday that Russia has invited the incoming Trump administration totake part inthe process "from which the Obama administration pointedly has been excluded."

"The invitation, extended toTrumps designated national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, came ina December 28 phone call toFlynn bySergei Kislyak, Russias ambassador inWashington, according toa transition official," the newspaper said. "US participation, especially if an agreement is reached, would be the first indication ofthe enhanced US-Russia cooperation that President Vladimir Putin and President-elect Donald Trump have forecast undera Trump administration," it further stated, adding that a spokesman forTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that the United States would attend the talks. Earlier media reports also suggested that the Turkish leader revealed that Saudi Arabia and Qatar can be also invited toAstana.

Meanwhile, Vzglyad notes that it is only too clear why it is Astana which has been chosen asthe site forthe negotiations.

"It is a clear demonstration that it is Russia who is playing the key role inthe settlement ofthe Syrian crisis," it says. "Kazakhstan is Russia's closest ally, a member ofthe Eurasian Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russian-Chinese project which is gradually becoming Pan-Asian," it further elaborates. Kazakhstan is also a Muslim country, and so there is no better place forthe talks, it says. "It is inan Asian, Muslim, ally country where Russia should find a solution tothe major world problem, the war, which is going onin the Muslim and Asian country, also allied toRussia," it says.

"Not inGeneva where first ofall western countries have been fruitlessly trying tobring together Assad and the rebels, butin Eurasian Astana," it states.

It further elaborates that Astana does not mean any further talks inGeneva will be cancelled, butthe meeting which is scheduled totake place inGeneva onFebruary 8 will only have context inthe wake ofany successes made inthe Kazakh capital. "By that time the new US administration will appear intime and Tillerson (Trump's nominee forthe secretary ofstate) will arrive inSwitzerland," the outlet says. The newspaper does not rule outthat the two locations will then run inparallel, complementing one another, however "everyone will understand which one is the key one." Both the US and Saudi Arabia will be left withthe only option tojoin the Astana talks, it states.

Besides, it will allow bringing inthe respected Kazakh President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who will create a stabilizing effect forthe Russian-Turkish agreement.

"Nazarbayev is very convenient forthe Islamic world, forthe West and forChina. Hence, if the negotiations inAstana are successful infinding a formula forthe Syrian settlement, it will enhance the international reputation ofNursultan Nazarbayev," the website says. The settlement ofthe Syrian conflict is set tobecome a lengthy and tedious process asboth Russia and Damascus are not interested inthe partition ofSyria, Hence, there will be very complicated negotiations betweenvarious Syrian groups, clans, tribes, communities and their external backers. "However if these negotiations take part amidthe ceasefire onthe larger part ofthe Syrian territory, it initself will be a huge achievement reached inAstana," it finally concluded.
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