Alwaght- The operation to recapture the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was launched on October 17 with the participation of a coalition of forces from different Iraqi political camps following an order by the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi as the country�s commander-in-chief.

Being the second-largest Iraqi city, Mosul is home to a nearly 2-million population from various religious and ethnic groups. Actually, the demographic diversity in Mosul allows as dub it a �small Iraq.�

An array of religious and ethnic groups such as the Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Christians, Sunni and Shiite Kurds, Assyrians, Jewry, Shabaks, and Yazidis are residing across Nineveh province whose capital is Mosul. This variety for the present time� and seemingly� does not pose itself as a serious threat to Iraq�s unity and security, because ISIS as a common enemy of all has caused the different sects in Iraq to gather together in convergence and unity.

But the important issue that needs consideration is that what future is awaiting Mosul.� In other words, will different political camps in Iraq agree upon a deal that satisfies all sides?

To answer this question one needs to observe all of the possibilities in a bid to have a clear picture of the future of developments in Mosul, and Iraq in general. Mosul�s future can be seen as Iraq�s future. To put it another way, once the Iraq�s political sides attain an agreement on the future of Mosul, we can prefigure accordance and coordination between them in the whole of Iraq. But if they disagree on future of the currently ISIS-held city, we can foresee further struggles and disagreements on a national scale.

Given these considerations, three scenarios can be thought of for the future of Mosul:

Central government-favored scenario

Returning to the Pre-ISIS conditions seems to be most likely scenario for Mosul after driving out the ISIS terrorist group. This scenario, which is favored by central Iraqi government, suggests that Mosul will return under Baghdad�s rule. The Kurds and Sunni Arab are strongly against such a future for a liberated Mosul, arguing that there is no way the city can return to its pre-capture administrative mode. This stance is majorly held by the Kurds who believe should this scenario come to effect, the struggle with the central government over the disputed areas will remain standing as firm as it is now. Notwithstanding such oppositions to such future for the embattled city, the Baghdad government�s upper hand and great powers in comparison to the opposite sides very likely make the scenario come true, perhaps with trifling modifications.

Sunni, Saudi, and Turkey-favored scenario

According to a project eyed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the Sunni Arabs, the Nineveh province will become a federal government, taking cue from the autonomous Kurdistan region. This imagined autonomous region will have Nineveh as its capital, and include the current cities of Makhmor, Tal Afar, Nineveh Plains, and Al-Hazar as its so-called provinces. Actually, every city in current Nineveh province will become a province with its specific ethnic and religious codes. All these are planned to gather under administration of Mosul which will supposedly be administered by the Sunni Arabs. Originally, this scenario was put forward by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. However, due to opposition of Iraq�s internal political camps, regional powers like Iran, and international powers such as the US, it has a very small chance of taking effect.

US-Kurdish scenario

This scenario is very similar to the Sunni Arabs' plan for Mosul�s future. According to this US-Kurdish scheme, Nineveh will be broken into a couple of smaller provinces, and then the Article 140 of Iraq�s constitution will be implemented, aiming at finding solutions for the disputed areas. So, through referendum, seen by the Article 150, Nineveh will become a Kurdistan-style federal region. This plan is backed by Washington as the US Congress has its own scheme for Nineveh Plains that is home to a fairly large number of the Christians. According to the Congress' idea, Nineveh Plains will become an independent province and then will be integrated into Kurdistan region via referendum. The scenario could probably win backing from Saudi Arabia and Turkey. However, like the second scenario, the-backed plan has also relatively low chance of actualization due to objection from the central government.

Having the above-mentioned scenarios in mind, it can be predicted that it is likely that a variety of domestic, regional, and international actors will be present in the future negotiations on Mosul. So, keen disagreements are expected to arise among different sides. But what is different from the past is that the future of Mosul will not be tied to tactics and decisions of foreign powers, and the Iraqis themselves will have the last word on the city.