20 Apr 2024
Monday 31 October 2016 - 10:16
Story Code : 237121

OPEC internal discord thwarts plans for global supply cut

The two-day OPEC meeting in Vienna, attended by several non-OPEC oil producers, has concluded without any substantial result, albeit the participants have demonstrated their willingness to continue the joint effort to lift the global oil prices off from their currently low levels.

Kristian Rouz Disagreements betweenthe OPEC members overthe scale ofoutput cuts, and the fragility ofthe preliminary production curb deal, have rendered other international crude producers unenthusiastic overthe proposed global decrease inoil supply.

OPEC members are currently lacking a consensus overhow toimplement the agreed-upon cuts inoil output, meanwhile, non-OPEC oil exporters are seeking ways tocapitalize onthe situation selling more crude ata higher price, increasing their market share. While every oil-producing nation is cautious aboutany deal proposals aspotentially giving advantage totheir competitors, the current level ofoil prices is hurting Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, whilst certain non-OPEC producers could sustain lower prices due totheir lower fiscal and commercial breakeven threshold, determined byproduction costs inevery individual nation. Subsequently, a comprehensive deal tocurb oil output withinOPEC and outsideof it is deemed a massive diplomatic challenge withoutany certainty toit.

The two-day OPEC meeting inVienna concluded withoutany decisive progress overthe deal tocurb oil output. The negotiations are set tocontinue inlate November, and the positive effects ofthe preliminary deal agreed uponwithin OPEC a month ago are starting tovane. Non-OPEC nations, namely, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia did not make any commitment tocurb oil output.

They might be awaiting a more decisive action fromOPEC beforejoining the deal, or might aswell be expecting the oil prices togain amidstthe OPEC deal anticipations inorder toboost their export revenues asthe expense ofthe hurting oil cartel. "Anything short ofimplementation ofthis accord could lead tothe elongation ofthe rebalancing process, withfurther deterioration offinancial conditions and setbacks ininvestments extending intoa third year, which would be unprecedented," OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said. "We should be calling formaximum commitment fromall OPEC and non-OPEC countries."

The non-OPEC oil producers, who attended the Vienna meeting, put outroughly 19.6 mln barrels per day (bpd) in2015 combined, half ofthe collective OPEC output that year. If they opt tojoin the production cut deal, energy market is poised tobecome more expensive amidstthe regulated global competition.

However, inthe meantime, oil prices have been jittery post-meeting. The representatives ofOman said they would join the deal afterOPEC makes fixed internal arrangements betweenits members. Oman is producing roughly 1 mln bpd. Brazil, who attended the meeting asan observer, is planning toactually boost oil output by290,000 bpd to2.9 mln bpd in2017. Kazakhstan is planning toincrease oil output next year aswell. "We have toagree onthe real numbers," said Magsum Mirzagaliev, Kazakhstan's vice minister ofenergy. "It is important that we meet once again withdetailed numbers. We agreed that we have tomeet in3-4 weeks withnumbers, because every country has his own opinion," he added.

Brent crude was trading atroughly $50/bbl onSaturday asthe talks were nearing an end withoutany breakthrough announcements.

The intra-OPEC tensions are stemming fromthe disagreement betweenIran, willing toretain and expand its market share, and Saudi Arabia, seeking toincrease oil revenues toease its fiscal struggle. Russia, the worlds largest oil producer in1Q16, insists the internal OPEC deal todecrease oil output should precede any broader global oil curb agreements. "Russia is ready butthey want tosee indetail (the) figures agreed foryesterday," an unnamed source fromthe OPEC meeting told Reuters.

By Sputnik
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