16 Apr 2024
OPEC's decision to make a U-turn and agree to cut oil production is a response to budget issues, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Marc Ostwald, Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services, told Radio Sputnik.

The 14 members ofOPEC held a meeting inAlgiers onWednesday, where some ofthe world's largest oil producers unexpectedly agreed tocut production forthe first time ineight years.

The move represents a U-turn sinceNovember 2014, when the cartel decided not toimpose a cut inoil output despiteplummeting oil prices amida glut ofshale oil.

Marc Ostwald, Global Strategist atADM Investor Services, told Radio Sputnik that the agreement is an effort byoil producers toput inplace a "floor" tosupport the oil price, particularly given the tendency forprices tofall inautumn. "It's aboutbudgets, particularly the Saudi Arabian budget.

They've already burnt throughabout $150 billion offoreign exchange reserves tosubsidize their budget, and things are only getting worse," Ostwald explained. "What they're really trying todo is put a floor underoil prices. What they don't want is the typical seasonal fall that we get atthis time ofthe year inoil prices. You get a bit ofan overhang once the driving season and the summer demand starts dropping off, ahead ofthe winter demand."

"They need toavoid that, aboveall incountries likeSaudi Arabia, because aboveall they're running a budget deficit ofabout 15 percent ofGDP, which is absolutely enormous. There's a point atwhich they can't erode their reserves more quickly thanthey already are."

The agreement is a vague one, which promises toimpose an output ceiling ofbetween 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day. OPEC produced 33.327 million barrels ofoil per day inAugust, so the announced cut inoutput is relatively small. It might not even be achieved, given that some OPEC members have received concessions and could increase their production.

"This is a form ofprogress incommunication terms, butwhat it actually does inproduction terms is a completely different ball game," Ostwald said. Saudi Arabia, the cartel's biggest producer, has offered concessions tothree other members, Iran, Libya and Nigeria, which could be allowed toproduce oil "at maximum levels that make sense," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said.

"There are going tohave tobe concessions made forthe countries where output, particularly inthe last year or year and a half, has been impacted byeither technical outages or conflict outages, that specifically applied toLibya most butalso Nigeria," Ostwald said.

Tehran had demanded that it be allowed toincrease oil production toits pre-sanctions levels followingthe lifting ofeconomic and financial sanctions associated withits nuclear program inJanuary. The effect ofsanctions also means that Tehran is ina stronger position thanSaudi Arabia toweather low oil prices.

"Only one-third ofIran's budget revenues actually come fromoil. They also get a substantial amount fromnatural gas, butthey've got a much more diversified economy so they're ina much better position toplay hardball. That realization, witha little bit ofhelp fromother nations doing mediation, was what clinched this vague deal."

By Sputnik
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