28 Mar 2024
Monday 20 June 2016 - 18:26
Story Code : 219591

Russia, NATO locked in deepening dispute; cooperation or war?

Having a look at relations between Moscow and the Alliance since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, one can easily notice the ups and downs of Russia-NATO interaction through history. The vicissitudes usually turned into tensions after a period of cooperation, and then the tensions were reduced.

News related to NATO-Russia rival military drills, NATOs (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) growing deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons near Russian borders, the issue of Finland, Ukraine and Georgias becoming NATO associates to support Baltic states and, above all, NATO moves to install a missile defense shield on Russia's borders is no longer something new. These issues have been intensified since the Ukraine crisis as well as the Crimean Peninsula re-integration into the Russian Federation following a referendum, which are seen by some analysts as a radical change in relations between Russia and the West.

However, one, by having a look at relations between Moscow and the Alliance since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, can easily notice the ups and downs of Russia-NATO interaction through history. The vicissitudes usually turned into tensions after a period of cooperation, and then the tensions were reduced. A fundamental question comes to mind here: Why have Russia and NATO had almost always tense relationship despite their cooperation? Will their mutual interaction begin again after the current tensions? Given the current situation and their rival war games, will this period finally lead to an all-out war? Or will the Cold War era continue to go on?

Ever since the Warsaw pact disbanded, one of the most important security concerns of the Kremlin has been this matter that what would come to NATO. From Moscows point of view, based on realistic logic governing the formation of military alliances which sees the common threat as a necessary condition of sealing a pact and its lack of presence as its termination, the NATO treaty should be either dissolved or, by changing its mission, turns into an inclusive political entity, which entails Russia as well.

Russia now and then voiced readiness that it was ready to join NATO as a veto-wielding member. In the early days of the Soviet Unions dissolution, Moscows concerns were way less than those of the NATOs in a way that Russia joined NATOs new and secondary institutions, including the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) and the Partnership for Peace (PfP) in 1992 and 1994, respectively. It also did not oppose to the Alliances measures with respect to Bosnias crisis in 1992-1995.

However, the height of rivalry between Russia and NATO, in fact Russia and the West, was recorded in 1999 when the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland officially joined the organization and nine other countries requested the Alliance to join it after the biggest step in the formalization of the process for inviting new members came at the 1999 Washington summit when the Membership Action Plan (MAP) mechanism was approved as a stage for the current members to regularly review the formal applications of aspiring members. MAP allowed them to participate in the 1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo.

The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia during the Kosovo War that lasted from March 24, 1999 to June 10, 1999 made Moscow submit a statement to the UN Security Council slammingthe attack. Accordingly, Russia suspended its cooperation with NATO at all levels.

As a result, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new military doctrine on April 21, 2000, intended to replace the doctrine issued in 1993 and to elaborate on the military policies outlined in the new Russian national security concept. The doctrine stated that it was designed for the current "transitional period" in both Russian politics and international relations.

The doctrine identified NATO as Russias number-one threat and this obviouslyboosted the tensions between them. However, it did not last long as the 9/11 terrorist attacks in US fostered closer NATORussian ties against a new common threat i.e. terrorism. In fact, Russia, with the adoption of the 1+19 Charter, accepted to have major cooperation with NATO despite the accession of some Central and Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. This cooperation went on until 2003, the time that the US invaded Iraq.

In 2008, Russia backed South Ossetia in its war with Georgia. Moscows extensive military response at this war placed Russia and NATO in front of each other one more time. In fact, US-Russia relations had been hurt by the Russo-Georgian diplomatic crisis in Ossetia and the Russo-Georgian War.

Despite all of these tensions, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented her counterpart Sergei Lavrov with a red button in 2009, a plan called "Russian Reset. The Russian Reset was an attempt of Obama administration to improve relations between the United States and Russia.

In July 2009, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that US forces supplies could pass through Russian airspace on their way to Afghanistan. On September 17, 2009, US President Barack Obama announced that the US was dropping the Bush Administration's plan to build a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Russia had viewed the planned missile shield as a military threat. In fact, the Russian Reset halted NATO enlargement as well. Medvedev served as Russias president between 2009 and 2012; this period can be referred to as era of Russia-US positive interaction.

But the Syrian crisis in 2012 and the Ukraine crisis in 2014 placed Russia and NATO in front of each other in a more serious way. This confrontation made Putin to introduce a new defense doctrine which came into practice in 2015. It called for a more aggressive stance toward NATO, boosting presence in the Arctic and strengthening cooperation with India and China.

This completely deteriorated Russia-NATO relations and, as a result, NATO-Russia Council was dissolved and NATO suspended all its cooperation with Moscow. According to the new doctrine, Moscow will be allowed to use atomic weapons if the very existence of its state is threatened by conventional arms. The signing of the document by Putin came exactly three days after Ukraines parliament voted to drop the country's non-aligned status and work towards NATO membership. In a vote in Ukraine's parliament on December 23, 2014, MPs overwhelmingly backed the move by 303 to eight.

The new defense doctrine was a response to the Wests growing threat against Russia, in fact it showed Russias strong reaction to that. One of the terms laid down in the doctrine says, "Nuclear weapons will remain an important factor prevent nuclear war and conflict military conflicts with the use of conventional weapons (Large-scale war, regional war).

"The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to use against it and (or) its allies of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when under threat the very existence of the state. The decision to use nuclear weapons is taken President of the Russian Federation.

It has also warned that Russia will retaliate NATOs non-nuclear military actions with nuclear weapons. This shows that Russia has a weaker position compared to that of NATOs. It seems that the tensions between Russia and the West will be escalated and more complicated in the near future. If Ukraine asks to join NATO and the Alliance accepts that, their confrontation will be worsened. That is why we are seeing Russia and NATO reading the riot act for each other, showing this through their moves and measures.

To that end, NATO installed missile defense shields in Turkey and, according to reports, the Alliance conducted more than 200 war games in 2015, half of which took place near the Baltic region and Eastern Europe as it was stepping up its military build-up in these areas at the same time.
It has been also reported that NATO will deploy four international battalions to Poland and the three Baltic states as part of the wider push back against Russia's moves in the region.

"We will agree to deploy by rotation four robust, multinational battalions in the Baltic States and Poland," NATOs Head Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference ahead of a recent meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

Additionally, about 200 US troops in an armored column entered Moldova from Romania at dawn on May 3 to hold joint military exercise. Moldova joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program in 1994.

Also, about 1,300 US, British and Georgian troops conducted joint exercises aimed at training the former Soviet republic's military for participation in the NATO Response Force on May 11.

The two-week Nobel Partner exercises opened at Vaziani military base, about 12 miles from Georgia's capital Tiblisi.

Moreover, US military bases in South Korea are close to Russias coastal borders in Sea of Japan.

Earlier, FrantsKlintsevich, the vice-chairman of the Russian Federation Council Committee for Defense and Security, said NATO plans to restore the order of ten Soviet military bases on the territory of the Baltic States in the framework of the strategy of "global strike on Russia.

He added that Russias Armed Forces will deploy its arms and military equipment by keeping an eye on NATOs moves and that the armys units will be deployed based on this as well. Moscow announced that it will deploy three divisions of troops along its borders to counter NATO's increasing military presence in Eastern Europe, but the Wests plans to expand its military influence near Russian borders continue.

Earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said, "The United States and NATO have started deploying supporting military infrastructure near Russian borders, implementing dangerous missile defense plans, increasing military spending. Such actions force us to take adequate retaliatory measures.

However, NATO officials have said that the Alliances military units will do their duty on a rotating basis in host countries and that they have no plan to set up permanent military bases in those countries.

These developments and the constant tug-of-war between Russia and NATO, which unfolded after the Bosnia crisis, 1995-1996 developments, Kosovo war in 1999, and Ossetia crisis in 2008, show the continued tension between the two. But past experience shows that these tensions can be controlled through talks and that the cooperation can begin again. But this time the situation is a little bit different as no solution has been offered yet to settle the deepening dispute. It is also important to be noted that there is still a limited cooperation between Russia and NATO and that some of their participatory institutions are still active to some extent. Additionally, talks between officials of the two sides over finding a solution to the ongoing crises in Syria and Ukraine are underway.

This means that despite fundamental enmities between Russia and NATO, there is still a likelihood for putting aside the differences and resolve the dispute. To that end, three possibilities may help this happen. Firstly, Russias avoidance of entering into an all-out rivalry with the West and NATO taking into account the experience of the Soviet Union era and its current economic woes. Secondly, opposition of some NATO members with escalation of confrontation with Russia and its losses for their national economy. And thirdly, the rise of Chinas power and the need for concentration of US military policy on Asia, which will take a more practical form soon or late.

Therefore, one cannot simply say that the continuing tensions will turn into a long-term crisis similar to the Cold War era. In the meantime, the role of the US government is of high importance as we need to wait and see what would be the next US presidents stance on Russia as a key NATOmember state.

This article was written by Dr. Jahangir Karami for Basirat.ir on June 18, 2016. Dr. Jahangir Karami, Associate Professor of International Relations at Tehran University, and the head of Russia and Central Eurasia Studies Department.
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