The American Defense One website has published a report entitled "Start preparing for the collapse of Saudi kingdom" in which the authors, asked the US administration to be ready to the next stage that will witness the fall of the Al-Saud regime.
The report, authored by Sarah Chayes -- former Chancellor of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and participant in Carnegie Foundation -- and Alex de Waal -- researcher, academic and an expert on Arab and African Affairs -- revealed that the decision-makers in Washington have already begun planning for the stage of the Saudi Kingdom collapse.
The report argued that Saudi Arabia is not a real state, but rather "a political enterprise with a clever but ultimately unsustainable business model, as if the Saudi king is CEO of a family business that converts oil into payoffs that buy political loyalty. They take two forms: cash handouts or commercial concessions for the increasingly numerous scions of the royal clan, and a modicum of public goods and employment opportunities for commoners."
Regarding the second form of buying political loyalties, the report by Defense One - known for its close relations with the US Defense Department, indicated a "highly educated Sunni majority, with unprecedented exposure to the outside world, is unlikely to stay satisfied forever with a few favors doled out by geriatric rulers impervious to their input."
The authors asked what if "the price of political loyalty" rises, where the political market functions according to demand as well as supply, particularly when such fears accompany an expanded oil production in the face of such low prices, which may reflect an urgent need for revenue as well as other strategic imperatives.
The oil policy, which was adopted in Riyadh in the past months, unfolds the inability of the Saudi regime to continue with the game.
The report also notes that for decades, Riyadh has eased pressure by exporting its dissenterslike Osama bin Ladenfomenting extremism across the Muslim world. But that strategy can backfire: bin Ladens critique of Saudi corruption has been taken up by others and resonates among many Arabs. And King Salman has reached for some of the familiar items in the autocrats toolbox: executing dissidents, embarking on foreign wars, and whipping up sectarian rivalries to discredit Saudi Shiite demands and boost nationalist fervor. Each of these has grave risks.
The authors conclude by saying that there are a few ways things could go, as Salmans brittle grip on power begins cracking.
One is a factional struggle within the royal family, with the price of allegiance bid up beyond anyones ability to pay in cash. Another is foreign war. With Saudi Arabia already in engaged in Yemen and Syria war, escalation is too easy. A third scenario is insurrectioneither a non-violent uprising or an insurgencya result all too predictable given episodes throughout the region in recent years.
By AlWaght
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