Riyadh’s new approach to oil

Alwaght- The “oil signals” sent out by more than one Saudi official source like Al-Hayat newspaper and Al Arabiya news channel are seen to be reflecting Saudi Arabia’s true vision on it “economic war” which has begun to backfire.

Emphasizing that Riyadh wanted to cooperate with other oil producers to support the oil prices, these Saudi signs are sparking a ray of hope for restoring the economic stability to the region which has seen over $1000 billion in losses as a result of Saudi Arabia’s policies, as they slightly open the door to the possibility of Saudi military retreat in the future.

Saudi Arabia has not waited so long to talk about its economic conditions, something already was clear to all. The Financial Times has uncovered that Riyadh was considering tapping the international bond markets for the first time as the oil prices plummeted, a clear sign that the Saudi oil war is double-edged. The recent Saudi position and what followed it reflect Saudi Arabia’s retreat from its standing while the kingdom previously has rejected suggestions from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to cut its oil production levels, motivated by its political objectives, apparently to inflict damages on the Russian and Iranian economies.

Once Saudi Arabia decides to coordinate with the OPEC’s members, as well as Iran and Russia about the oil production levels and prices, the outcome would be in favor of the Persian Gulf Arab countries generally and Saudi Arabia specifically before any other states, because these countries’ economies are heavily oil-dependent. However, we are still in the stage of signals which would be followed by the negotiations and then the implementation stage ensues.

It is impossible to confine the Saudi failures to the oil sector as the kingdom has launched an aggression against the Yemeni people since almost 11 months ago, a war which has cost Riyadh hundreds of billions of dollars. So, would Saudi Arabia stop its military campaign in Yemen once it leaves its present oil policies?

To answer this essential question, it is enough to review the bloody history of this ruling family to be clearly ensured that Riyadh, even if it retreats from its oil policy, would keep eye on the military interventions in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Therefore, the current economic situation does not represent a motive for the kingdom to halt its aggressions. This means Riyadh would maintain its supports for the armed groups in Syria, as it would keep running its war campaign against the Yemeni people. Concerning the issue, there are some points to be touched upon:

First, the problem with the Saudi foreign and domestic policy is that it well stands on the basis of savagery and not wisdom, so it is difficult to foresee the time when the kingdom would decide to stop its conflicts in the region. Despite all these, the wise voices have begun to rise inside Saudi Arabia though the regime struggles to silence them.

Second, having in mind that Saudi Arabia has not drawn any plan for leaving its policies, it is unlikely that this economic decline affects the political section, or, to be precise, the military section of the country. This is what pushed Riyadh to adopt austerity measures and currently to eye borrowing money from the outside.

Third, the Saudi war on Yemen and Riyadh’s interventions in Syria would be finished once the kingdom receives a crushing military blow, namely when the Yemeni army arrives close to Riyadh’s gates because the Yemeni army gaining control of three provinces of Asir, Jizan and Najran looks not enough, or once an internal shock, which is not unlikely, takes place in Saudi Arabia, especially that the recent outcoming reports suggest that the dispute is heating up between the country’s Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef and the Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

Fourth, the outside world is obliged to make Riyadh bow to the law through the Security Council should Riyadh decides to press ahead with its committing “crimes against humanity” in Yemeni territories. So far the US has refrained from pressing Saudi Arabia to respect the international laws because the heightened sectarian conflicts in the region go in favor of Washington, as they are, besides, beneficial for Saudi Arabia.

Fifths, no need for the Security Council and military confrontation to thwart the Saudi malignity because the domestic crises are enough to discipline Riyadh as the wise voices rise from inside the royal family to reject the Mohammad bin Salman’s policies either at home or outside.

Despite all these, there are hopes that Riyadh restores its wisdom which it lost since a long time ago, because before other countries and peoples, it is hurting itself and its own people. In fact, the true enemy (of the Islamic world) in the present day is the Israeli regime which is spoiling the holy places. The Palestinian cause should resurface as the vital case of the Islamic and Arab world. But the economic retreat signals, however, do not mean that it is so with the military case.

Saudi Arabia has fallen in dire straits economically following its aggression which has backfired, and it is to suffer militarily later on. Such a situation would determine the future of the land of Hejaz sooner than expected.

By Alwaght