Following the last November elections, the country was supposed to move to equilibrium because the outcoming election results have settled the problems concerning forming the government, giving the ruling party another chance to form a cabinet without any need to the support presented from other parties, and Ahmet Davutoglu, who earlier was the countrys foreign minister, was tasked with forming new government as prime minister. But Turkey, at the same time, rolled in a political and security crisis which indicates the conditions for the ruling Justice and Development Party is not as easy as it was thought. There are some points concerning the issue:
1. Looking forward to draw the votes of the Turks who come against any reconciliation of the government with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Erdogans party has ramped up pressures on the Kurds in the election interval between June 7 and November 1, 2015, in which the snap election was held.
It also opted to enter a renewed conflict with the country's Kurds. The conflict was expected to end as the polls closed; however, it continued to unfold. In the present time, in Turkeys seven eastern provinces, including Van and Diyar Bakr, the clashes between the government and the Kurds have surged so high that the Turkish army is using bomber jets to strike the houses and streets, and so far it has failed to retake the full control of these provinces. In addition, the Kurdish citizens are holding daily anti-government protests in Turkeys most populated city Istanbul as well as in the countrys capital Ankara.
Blocking off the main streets in these two important cities, the police forces are countering the rallies. The question is that are the post-election conflicts the Erdogan governments choice or the Kurds? Many of the Turkish citizens believe that the government is still policizing the atmosphere to, on the one hand, silence the opposing voices and, on the other hand, forge a social consensus in its favor.
Thus, because the government observes the Kurds as the most negative factor hampering a national unity, it struggles to widen the range of clashes with them in order to paint the security situation as instable and promote the need to move close to the governments side and its strategies.
But, meanwhile, some people believe that the confrontations in the countrys east and in Turkeys economic and political hubs show that the government has grown weak and despite its victory in the elections, it is unable to sort out the situation. Thereby, it has fallen into the oppositions trap and it would soon disappear in the quagmire of demonstrations and social reactions. These two visions are accompanied by some clues and news. But what is consensually said is that Turkey is moving towards security crisis tunnel and the future circumstances are unclear to a large extent.
The feeling that the security conditions are deteriorating in Turkey day by day has so far hit hard the Turkish economy, which is so much dependent to the tourism. For a couple of reasons, including security issues, tourism in Turkey has faced a sharp lapse and the citizen travel limitations set by the Western governments indicate that decreasing process continues to press ahead. As much as the Turkish economic situation faces troubles, the countrys political status would take the equal effect and it would cause rising demonstrative voices across the country, because improving the economic circumstances was one of the most significant reasons behind the public moving toward the ruling Justice and Development Party since 2002 up to the present time. If the ruling party has no such a privilege over the other political parties in the country, there is no reason for its preference.
2. In time with its domestic conflicts, the Turkish government is growing some struggles with its neighbors like Syria, Iraq, Russia and Iran. Some of Turkish army units incursion into Bashiga region, north of Iraqs Mosul province and Ankara officials insistence that their forces would stay in Iraq, have escalated the Ankara-Baghdad tensions so high that Iraq has sent Turkish ambassador back home. Additionally, the anti-Russian actions, which started by shooting down a Russian SU-24 bomber by the Turkish jets, have continued in verbal arguments with the Russian officials.
Also the political and propagandistic attacks on Syria and President Bashar al-Assad government have proceeded along with the anti-Iraqi and anti-Russian moves. The deployment of units of the Turkish army to Turkeys southern borders with Syria shows that more moves could ensue. Meanwhile, the Turkish media in line with the countrys government have launched heavy propaganda attacks against the neighboring Iran, unmatched during the whole time of rule of Justice and Development Party.
The mentioned cases raise a question. What is Erdogans goal and what outlook could be imagined for it? Some analysts suggest that Erdogans government, to steer clear of the internal pressures and to create a nation-wide consensus, is struggling to promote for the idea of a bigger cross-border threat Turkey is facing.
Actually, these threats are prefiguring anti-opposition plots as well as oncoming difficulties for Erdogans government, rather than heralding widening Turkish tensions with southern, eastern and northern neighbors. According to the analysts, in fact Erdogans government has taken a dangerous cross-border risk in a bid to decrease the risk of its restrictive measures inside the country. Still, other Turkish analysts suggest that Turkeys foreign tensions indicate that Erdogan and Davutoglu view the major problems which endanger their stay in power as being out of the countrys borders and not inside the country. These analysts suggest that Erdogans important trouble is not internal for, whether because of the June elections' or November elections results, the Justice and Development Party, by a wide margin from other parties, is Turkeys leading party and political force.
On the other side, his opponents in the three major parties, the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), Republican Peoples Party and Nationalist Democratic Party, are involved a dispute with each other. For example the Nationalistic Democratic Party along with the Republican Peoples Party is outracing the Justice and Development Party in their opposition to HDP and the Kurds, as the HDP is against the two other parties more than it is against the Erdogans party.
Having this in mind, Erdogan has no essential internal problems to take advantage of the domestic conditions to call the attentions to the cross-border crisis. The analysts continue that Erdogan and his party, due to their specific polices, have lost their validity in the eyes of their most important supporters, namely the Americans and the Europeans.
The attempts made by Fathullah Gulen, whose reliability to the US is vivid and undoubted, to overthrow Erdogan over corruption fight and the Gezi Park protests, have pushed Erdogan to, using his influence and media power, sack and imprison the pro-Gulen army generals and judges. This is while almost 13 years ago the West with the use of Fathullah Gulen group and his many institutes has helped the Justice and Development Party rise to power in Turkey because in the time of financial crisis Europe needed a stable Turkey because the country is considered a bridge linking Europe to Asia economically.
Actually, at that time, rise of stable government in Turkey was a strategic choice for the West, to an extent that amid the times economic crisis it gave Turkey $4 billion in aid. Erdogan-Gulens last year struggle, which has led into Gulen group making revelations against Erdogans children and relatives on the one hand and shutting down the Gulen-linked schools and institutes by Erdogans government on the other hand, shows that the honeymoon is now over between these two quasi-religious forces.
Meanwhile, support of Gulen, who holds a sway in the US, Europe and some parts of Asia, has appeared to be priority now. The West, which assesses the anti-Islam policy as the major path of doing away with the pressures coming from (Irans) Islamic Revolution and the Resistance frontin, has set its hope more on Gulen than on Erdogan. In the Wests eye, on the one hand Erdogan has failed to curb the Islamic Revolution and on the other hand his term is over and a new pattern must take the stage. The West believes that Gulens proponents could rise and consummate the job that Erdogan and his party could not do.
According to the analysts, Erdogan during the past few weeks and especially after the November parliamentary elections has tried to convince the West that it is ready to follow their orders. Downing the Russian SU-24 bomber, raising disputes with Iran, deploying military forces to Iraq and resuming diplomatic ties with the Israeli regime, which have cooled over Mavi Marmara solidarity ship, are the reasons and clues of substantiality of this analysis.
In fact, Erdogans cross-border threats and his recent measures could be prelude of a new regional adventuring. Therefore, caution must be considered in facing such a development. Erdogans counter-security, beyond the regional borders measures could not be left unresponded, while a tit-for-tat response to his security moves would be a play in his set field. As it was already pointed out, the time is very sensitive, requiring further caution.
By Alwaght
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