How Iran’s nuclear accord establish a new regional order

Tehran, August 1, The Iran Project – Some commentators argue that the nuclear deal is considered the end of cold war in Iran-US relations.

They mainly refer to the era prior to the Islamic Revolution in which in response to the Soviet Union encroachment in the Middle East, Iran together with Saudi Arabia were chosen to act as the two regional pillars or “gendarmes” to maintain the Interests of Western camp in the region. However, the fall of Shah in 1979 was both an end to the doctrine and a beginning to the cold war between Iran and US.

During all these more than five and half decades, the hostility between Iran and US has been a major principle in the Middle East politics, benefiting few countries particularly the Arab monarchs and Israel in the form of the military, political and economic protection.In absence of Iran, America was entirely reliant on Saudi Arabia as a single gendarme and this is why the Saudi Kingdom mostly benefited from this long-term animosity.

For the time being, the comprehensive accord between Iran and world powers including US is transforming the older order of the region in which the US always defended the Arab allies at a huge cost in numerous instances such as the Persian Gulf War.

Arabs are now waking up to the fact that US regional politics significantly changed in the Obama’s era and compared to the past, the rationale obligating the US to wrap the Saudi Arabia under the blanket of different protections is less justified.

Besides, shale-oil production in the US, the increased supply of oil from non-Middle Eastern countries and substituting the clean energy are the reasons that remarkably has reduced the US dependence on the Saudi’s oil. These arguments simply explain Saudi Arabia’s anxiety over establishing the new balance of power, fearing that “the West is making back-room deals with Iran to carve up the Arab world.”

The new developments left Arabs with no other choice but to approach Israel. The issue of Iran is where the Arabs and the Jews’ interests coincides, stimulating the covert relations between them. This is secret mainly because according to a Jewish commentator, the rapprochement, not as an inherent change in Israel-Arabs relation but as a matter of interests and realpolitik, is not what the Arab States intend to publicize.

They both extremely feel threatened that the Washington improved relations with Tehran provide it the legitimacy to be a gendarme again. This brings us to the last part of the argument.

It is totally understandable that Israel-Arab axis desperately seeks more allies and who is better that Russians? There are reasons explaining why Russia will actively engage in this partnership.

Initially, according to a Russian expert, the long-standing policy of the country is to put sticks in the US’s wheel and here this might be the case. Now that the Russian sees that Arab states and Israel don’t receive the US attention, it would welcome to join to the Israel and Arabs to form a new triangle against the US-Iran proximity.This argument indicates how politically significant is the recent Saudi officials trip to Russia.

Secondly, it publicly supported the nuclear negotiations; however Iran-US proximity is a threat to it. In short, Russia is fully aware that it can considerably take advantage of the involvement in the Arab-Israel rapprochement at the US expense.

Above arguments leave no doubt that the nuclear deal is setting the new rules for the current Middle East, bringing about the remarkable regional developments. In face of such highly rapid changes in the Middle East and considering the tensions with Arab neighbors and doubts over the Russian’s true intents, Iran’s single wise choice is to adopt a coherent strategy to approach the US to confront the newly formed triangle.