29 Mar 2024
Wednesday 4 March 2015 - 15:01
Story Code : 154236

The real story on Iran, US, Russia and China

[caption id="attachment_148765" align="alignright" width="222"]Iran President Hassan Rouhani Iran President Hassan Rouhani[/caption]

The real story is, and will continue to be, how Iran, the key power in Southwest Asia, is about to be positioned in the nonstop complex ballet between the US, Russia and China. Thats one of the key vectors of the New Great Game in Eurasia.


The real story was never abouthow warmonger Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, a foreign leader, would crudely use the House ofCards, sorry, the US Capitol, asa lowly re-election bully pulpit tomould the US presidency and American foreign policy.

A graphic indication is that while Bomb Iran Bibi was distilling his 39-minute harangue inWashington, US Secretary ofState John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif were engaged intheir third roundof nuclear negotiations inMontreux.

The real story is also only partially aboutthis perennial soap opera the Iranian nuclear dossier. By the end ofthis month there will be a deadline toreach a framework agreement, and byJune optimistically a comprehensive final settlement.

Whats atstake atthe highest level has been known toall major players forages. Tehran wont settle foranything less thana swift end tothe current nasty, illegal package ofsanctions. Yet Washington, underthe cloud ofthe self-described "Dont Do Stupid Stuff" Obama administration, keeps changing the goal posts asnegotiations advance.

The latest is a demand byObama fora 10-year suspension ofIranian nuclear activity. Zarifcalled it"illogical" and "excessive".

Well, asillogical asthe trademark paranoiaexhibited bythe usual basket ofUS neo-cons and extreme right-wingers. Compare it tohow Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei regards nuclear power withall its implications; this has also beenonthe recordforages foranyone tosee.

China, Russia and Plan B

Unlike the Cheney regime, the Obama administration seems tohave reached a logical conclusion facilitated byextensive Pentagon gaming; Washington cant destroy Irans nuclear program unless it would use nuclear weapons.

Along most ofthe pastdecade, that was Plan A. Plan B is the never-ending "negotiations", which boils downto placing a series ofrestrictions onIrans nuclear program inexchange fora still very dubious end ofsanctions.

Yet the real objective ofthe Masters ofthe Universe who control the shadowplay inthe Washington/Wall Street axis is tomanage imperial decline. That implies, inSouthwest Asia, a renewed Divide and Rule push, featuring Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Some key players inWashington are getting increasingly impatient withthe House ofSaud what withits low price oil strategy bombing the US shale oil industry. Others worry that Turkey aftera key Pipelineistan deal, the Turk Stream is moving away toRussia. Thus the option tosort ofreintegrate Iran intoa collaboration withthe West, if not close, atleast yielding profitable deals forWestern corporations.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are not standing idly, asthey are an important part ofthe P5+1 negotiating team withIran. Both BRICS nations can and do use Iran asleverage inhow they negotiate withthe hegemon, always finding ways toundermine the US "pivoting toAsia".

As soon asrelations withIran are normalized, Tehran will be admitted tothe Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); currently it enjoys observer status. Washington dreads the move asit will advance Irans Eurasian integration, and solidify a Moscow-Tehran-Beijing political/commercial axis.

Russia already does very good business withIran fromnuclear plants toweapons sales. No US deal withIran will come throughwithout a tacit Russian acquiescence and the Americans know it. Beijing, forits part, tends tocling tothe status quo asin not desiring Tehran toget any closer tothe West because that would mean a freer hegemon inits "pivoting toAsia" mode, which China, correctly, identifies ascontainment.

Further ondown the road, Tehran can use a rapprochement withthe West toincrease its bargaining power withBeijing. Assuming a deal is reached this summer, Tehran will be inan excellent position toextract concessions onthe economy, security, defense fromits Chinese partners. But the name ofthe game remains Eurasian integration.

The Caliphate, "our" bastards

As forvociferous Bibi, all he had left was toonce again try tosell Washington an Israeli war ofchoice againsta demonized-to-oblivion Iran. It didnt fly asmuch asthose usual suspects, the AIPAC lobby, bluntly ordered their shock troops totell the House ofCards, sorry US Congress, that war is peace, and any nuclear deal is a deal withthe devil. As argued byTrita Parsi, the real "existential threat" forBibi is peace.

Once again, the real story here is not a nuclear Iran; its the possibility ofa US-Iran dtente where Israels grip onUS foreign policy is not ironclad anymore.

Predictably, Bibi lumped asevil forces lurking inhis "neighborhoo" everyone fromIran and "Lebanon" (he meant Hezbollah) toAssads Syria and Hamas. But not ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. So a non-nuclear Iran is a worse threat tocivilization thanthe fake, beheading-addicted Caliphate.

Espousing such a worldview Bibi would not even qualify asan extra onHouse ofCards the one onNetflix. Meanwhile, the real Israel story the illegal occupation/apartheid imposed onPalestine continues, obscured bythe usual gaggle ofsomnambulists inthe Bibi-raided House ofCards, sorry, US Congress.


This article was written byPepe Escobar for Sputnik News on March. 4, 2015. Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for Asia Times/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and TomDispatch, and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong.
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