IMF projects 2.2% GDP growth for Iran in 2015 amid global economic slowdown

In its World Economic Outlook for the month of October, the International Monetary Fund has projected 2.2% real GDP growth for the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2015, dropping it from the 2.3% that was predicted in its April report.

Iran’s real GDP growth picked up in 2014 with 1.5% growth and is expected to grow further by 2.2% in 2015, after two years of negative economic growth.

In its October report, the IMF published its downward revisions for the World’s economic growth. In January, the IMF predicted the world might manage growth of 3.7%, and then dropped it to 3.6% in April, 3.4% in July, and 3.3% in the new report in October.

The United States of America’s economy is firming after a brief slowdown in the first quarter of 2014. Similarly, Canada has also bounced back strongly after a slow start in first quarter of 2014, due to its exports benefiting from a stronger American market and weaker currency.

IMF downward revisions are universal with both Europe and Japan expected to grow much less this year than was previously projected.

Europe is projected to experience a modest growth of 1.3% in 2015 with uneven figures across the continent. In advanced countries of the Euro zone, economic recovery is still weak mainly due to low growth and inflation. A set of recommendations such as mixed accommodative monetary policy; infrastructural reform and completing a banking union have been proposed to lift the mix-term growth.

Economic recovery in developing European countries is also expected to be uneven, with growth remaining or accelerating in Poland, Hungary and Turkey but slowing down in south Eastern Europe.

The Asia Pacific nations are projected to bounce back, after growth cooled in early 2014. Korea is leading the pack with the projected economic growth of 4.0% in 2015. Export should also increase for the Asia Pacific countries given the stronger demand in advanced economies. Nevertheless, tightening global financial market remains a risk for medium to long term recovery.

Latin America is a region where countries are facing a rocky road in their path for economic recovery after the financial meltdown in 2008. Recovery slowed down in 2014 for the entire region and the projected growth in the October report for 2015 stays at a modest 2.2%, 0.7% weaker than the previous projection in the April report.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are facing significant challenges given the geopolitical tensions. The European CIS nation’s growth decreased sharply in 2014. Given the Russian-Ukraine conflict, Investment and as the result business confidence dropped dramatically. Financial conditions are expected to worsen in 2015 while inflation is forecast to remain high or even rise in the near term. The average economic growth projection for CIS nations remain at a modest 1.6% compared to 0.8% in 2014.

Economic recovery in the Middle East and North Africa region plus Afghanistan and Pakistan is expected to pick up in 2015, mainly thanks to increasing oil windfalls. Nevertheless, political transition in some countries poses a great risk to the economic growth and development of the region as a whole.

Oil exporting countries in the region are projected to witness an average of 3.9% economic growth with Saudi Arabia leading the figures with a 4.5% growth in 2015. Oil import nations across the MENA region are faced with political tensions and structural economic inefficiencies. Nevertheless, it is reported that export is picking up given the stronger recovery in oil exporting countries. Growth in MENA oil importing countries is expected to rise from 2.6% in 2014 to 3.7% in 2015. Fiscal consolidation is a common factor that needs to be addressed by both oil importing and exporting nations of the region to ensure sustainable medium to long-term economic growth.

In the Sub-Saharan Africa, growth outlook is projected to be positive. Mainly because of the supportive external demand conditions as well as growth in both public and private investments. The average economic growth for oil exporting nations of the region is projected to be 7.0% while the middle income countries are low income countries are expected to witness an economic growth of 3.6% and 6.0% respectively.

By Peyvand


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