President Obama has said he will not let Iran get a nuclear weapon. So why did the Center for a New American Security, the think tank most closely associated with staffing Obamas Pentagon, issue areportMonday calledIf All Else Fails: The Challenges of Containing a Nuclear-Armed Iran?Could it be that Obamas red line against Tehran becoming a nuclear-weapons state is fading? Obama threatened Syrias Bashar Assad not to cross a red line by using chemical weapons against the rebels seeking to overthrow him. But critics maintain that has been shown to be more bluster than blast after (admittedly squishy) evidence surfaced that Assad had done just that and the U.S. did nothing.
The question is piquant coming as it does from CNAS. After all, the think tanks new top guy is Robert Work, who until March served as deputy secretary of the Navy. Its two new co-chairs are Michle Flournoy, who served as the Pentagons No. 3 civilian until last year, and Kurt Campbell, until recently a top State Department official. They have both returned to the think tank they created in 2007.
CNASs latest report on Iran concludes:
Even if U.S. policymakers prefer prevention to containment, prevention could fail. The United States is not likely to acquiesce to the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran, but Tehran may be able to achieve an unstoppable breakout capability or develop nuclear weapons in secret before preventive measures, up to and including the use of force, have been exhausted. Alternatively, an ineffective military strike could produce minimal damage to Irans nuclear program while strengthening Irans motivation to acquire the bomb. Under any of these scenarios, Washington would be forced to shift toward containment regardless of current preferences. The failure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would be bad, but the failure to be prepared for that possibility would be even worse.
The studys lead author is Colin H. Kahl, identified in the report as a Senior Fellow at Center for a New American Security and an associate professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown Universitys Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.
But the more expansive bio on the CNAS website elaborates:
From February 2009 through December 2011, Dr. Kahl served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. In that capacity, he developed and implemented the U.S. Defense Departments strategy and policy towardIranDuring his tenure, he played a lead role inshaping the Pentagons efforts to counter Irans nuclear weapons ambitions and destabilizing activities
Kinda makes you nervous.
By Time
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