If a president�s key appointments show the direction of his thinking, then Barack Obama�s latest nomination sends an important message. Chuck Hagel, an opponent of going to war with Iran and a critic of Israeli influence in Washington, has�emerged as Obama�s choice for defence secretary.
First things first: the president decides US policy, not the man who runs the Pentagon, whoever he might be. Moreover, Hagel�s appointment is likely to encounter significant opposition in the Senate; his confirmation is far from certain.

But the fact that Obama has made this choice could be an early sign of his likely approach towards two looming decisions. The first will be whether to have another go at reviving the Middle East peace process. Obama�s allies in Europe and the Middle East, notably Britain and Jordan, are urging him to try again. Meanwhile, Israel holds an election on January 22: Benjamin Netanyahu will probably win, perhaps as the head of an even more Right-wing coalition. That will complicate Obama�s choice.

We can be fairly sure that Hagel would be in favour of giving the peace process another try, even if this sets up a confrontation with Israel�s new government. The allies who favour this course would be quietly cheered by his appointment.

The second issue concerns Iran. Last year, America joined a big diplomatic effort to break the impasse over Iran�s nuclear ambitions. The five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany (the �P5 plus 1�) held three meetings with Iran in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow. But that process ran into the sand and, in any case, Netanyahu made clear that he believed America and her allies were prepared to concede far too much.

Obama will have to decide whether to have another go at diplomacy with Iran in 2013. If an agreement looks possible, he will also have to choose how many concessions he is prepared to make. Hagel�s influence seems likely to point in the direction of more diplomacy and a more pragmatic US position. If so, Obama�s policy would be broadly in line with the European consensus. Perhaps Netanyahu�s suspicions about Obama are about to be confirmed.

By The Telegraph

 

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