Iran sent a message last weekto the West, the Wests Sunni allies and Israel that it will challenge any attempts at Sunni hegemony in both Gaza and Syria.
While all politics are local, in the Middle East there's an overlying regional sectarian conflict in play.
Iran, the leading Shia power in the region, played a formidable hand, countering the regional ambitions of Qatar and Turkey; revealing the limits of Egypts influence; and showing that its proxies and allies can reach within Israel.
In the Gaza conflict, Iran revealed that it has the wherewithal to shift the equation and provide some payback, even in those areas where its adversaries allegedly hold sway and hegemony.The fighting inbothGazaand Syria shows Irans capabilities to play on two fronts, simultaneously.
For those who believed the trend is Sunni leaders gaining clout, Iran is saying think again.
Lets look at first at the Gaza or Israel front.Hamasdecision to launchIranian missileswas not made solely in Gaza. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and others, would not have taken on Israel if Iran did not have their backs, which it did. AliLarijani, speaker of Irans Parliament, said, The Zionist regime needs to realize that Palestinian military power comes from Iranian military power, adding that despite Irans economic difficulties, we are changing the region, and this will be a big achievement.
Israels Iron Domemissile defensesystem performed admirably, but missiles are weapons of terror, not accuracy. Tehran revealed to Israel and the world that its reach extends to within Israels borders. Its missiles are in Gaza and many more are in Lebanon, controlled by Hezbollah, whose patron is Iran.
This message has been received by Israeli Prime MinisterBenjaminNetanyahu, whomightbe reminded during the upcoming elections about the costs to Israeli deterrence from the Gaza conflict,most likely by Tzipi Livni, who has announced her candidacy for prime minister, butperhaps even by Defense MinisterEhud Barak, who said he would resign afterthenext Israeli government is formed in January 2013. This could be similar to Ohlmerts predicament in 2006, when Israel invaded Lebanon in response to Hezbollah rockets attacks.
Hamasleader Khaled Meshaal had begun toshift his alliance from Iran and Syria to Qatar and the Gulf states, butlast weekTehran revealed the false promise of his flirtationin the ensuing confrontation with Israel. This follows animplosion in the Hamas leadership and the proliferation ofmini-Hamaseswith closer ties to Iran. These new power centers had forced Meshaal to seek refuge with Qatar, where he may soon find himself based, as it has been widely expected he will step down.Meshaal, who functions on the outside of Gaza,isbeingquestioned by otherHamas andIslamistleaders, especially those inside Gaza,for his decision making and has emerged a clear loser in the past week.Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the emir of Qatar,had visited Gaza in October with great fanfare and promised $400 million for development projects, which many took as a sign of a shift in regional alignments in favor of Qatar and a loss for Iran. When the conflict broke, however, Qatar found itself on the margins.
Meshaals machinations provided the opening for Hamas, and the new challengers to Hamas, to end up in Irans lap. Iran changed that equation. Iran said to Qatar, the Hamas you control in Gaza is not in control in Gaza.
Iran will play the Gaza card again, with all due respect to the cease-fire.
In Irans score, Gaza was not just about Gaza. It was also about Syria, a second front. Tehran is the prime backer of Syrian President Assad and has been active in regionaldiplomacyto end the fighting. But its efforts have been largely ignored by the West.Such a move would also serve totamp down expectations of any solution in Syria absent Iran.
As Al-Monitors Iran Pulse reported,Larijanitook a victory lap for Iran in Damascus, meeting withbothPresident Bashar al-Assad, whereLarijanipraised the Syrian rolein the region,andAhmed Jibril, the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, whocommended Irans role in the Palestinian issue.
The ascendance of Irans role in Syria could provide perspective on a diplomatic solution to end the conflict, which is misleadingly characterized as between the opposition and the Assad regime, as DeniseNataliwrites this week. It is, rather, a Sunni-Alawite bloodbath with both sides backed by their regional sectarian patrons (the Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam and backed by Iran).
The history of Syria is a history of instability and coups detats until Syrian Defense Minister Hafez al-Assad, Bashars father, an Alawite, assumed power in a coup in1970. Assads rule went unchallenged until his brother Rifaat al-Assad, attempted afailedcoup in 1984.
The point here is that President Assad is the leader of the Alawitesanduntil thevery armedAlawitesamongstthemselvesdecide otherwise. Simply put, until the Alawites in Syria themselves make a change, they will back Assad. Anyinitiativethat therefore leaves out thethese sameAlawites of Syria, and overlooks the sectarian, local and regional dimensions of the Syrian conflict, is a recipe for diplomatic failure and more deaths among all Syrians.
The US has tried to find an Alawite replacement to take Assads place. Asif Shawkat, the former deputy defense minister, killed in a mysterious bombing in July, was one such hope. Since then, there have been numerous attempts to destabilize or replace Assadwith another Alawite, but ithas all been workedfrom the outside. Until such a time there is a change from within Syrias Alawite community, the conclusion one must reach, is that for now Assad is their leader, for whatever reason.
Discussion of a "post-Assad" future for Syria solely among theSyrian National Coalitionin Istanbul or Doha, absent a role for the Alawites inside Syria who are presently represented and defended byAssad will come to naught.
These trends were missed by many who rushed to proclaimEgyptian President MohammedMorsiasthe new diplomatic broker and moderating force in the Middle East. That perception was put into questionjust 24 hours after helpingnegotiatethe cease fire in Gaza.Morsi quickly ditched the mantle of regional statesman andmoved to consolidate power inEgyptthrough a presidential decree that rallied all opposition forces against him. For those who have been reading Al-Monitor, which has covered the controversy and crisis of Egypt and theConstituent Assemblysince June, including a detailed analysis of the draft constitution by BassemSabrylast month, Morsis pivot should not be asurprise.
Instead of a diplomatic broker, Morsi was moreareluctant escrow account manager. He played his role by default, as the region was caught flat-footed by the conflict, with limited influence over Hamas or Israel, but both of them urgentlyseekinga face-saving way out. The escrow account was thin and quickly exhausted, and Morsis role, in the end,a supporting one, and not too dissimilar from Egypts role under Mubarak.
If Egypt has revealed itslimitsin Gaza,Turkeyhas shown itself reduced to a mere shadow of the regional prestige it possessed just three years ago, as Prime Minister Erdogan proclaimed Israel a terrorist state and Foreign Minister Davutoglu cried in Gaza. Turkey preferred rhetoric over diplomacy and had no significant role in the conflict or the cease-fire.It is no surprise then thatKemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the opposition CHP Party, this week called for Davutoglus dismissal, and there are rumblings even within the AKP to hold the Foreign Minister accountable for Turkeys foreign policy missteps.
Iran may next seek to reveal its influence on another sectarian fault line, that is between the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The clashes this week inTuz Khurmatumay foreshadow more to come, especially if Irans interests in Syria are not recognized. For now, the US helped broker an agreement for both sides to step back from conflict. The next time that this front is triggered or activated for whatever reason, the US may find itself in a similar situation as Morsi an escrow agent discovering theres not enough in the account to keep the parties from fighting,andcounting on Iran to help walk the parties back from conflict.
So as the Palestinian and Israeli people attempt to heal from another tragic exchange, and Syrians continue to die, there is a diplomatic landscape that is both old and new. Iran has again shown its reach within Israels borders. It kept things quiet since Hezbollah rockets provoked Israels retaliation in 2006. But this month Iran has made a statement, if a brief one.In case there was ever a doubt, Iranhas the capabilities of peace and warinIsrael,Syria, and Iraq.
Israel, too, has its cards, including the best military in the region, a nuclear arsenal, and the support of the US and the international community for its concerns about Irans nuclear program. But the multilateral P5+1 forum (the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany) to deal with Irans nuclear program haslimitedutility for conflict resolution between Israel and Iran, and this is in the end a local matterwhich would need a credible escrow manager, and that opens up a potentially greater role for Russia.
There is a growing recognition of this reality. AsIsraelisenior columnist and political analystBen Caspitwrote inAl-Monitorthis week, when Israel negotiated with Egypt, to negotiate with Hamas, it is by extension dealing with Iran.
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