NATOs Patriot missiles to be stationed in Turkey may stay around even after the conflict in Syria cools down, due to other regional tensions, especially the one between Israel and Iran, according to Prof. Mustafa Kibaro?lu of Okan University. This is my speculation and intuition as an academic, he says
The Patriot system, designed to intercept aircraft missiles, whichTurkeyrequestedNATOdeploy last week in an attempt to bolster security along its border with Syria may remain in place long term due to continuing tension betweenIsraeland Iran, Prof. Mustafa Kibaro?lu, chair of the Department of International Relations at Okan University in Istanbul, said.
[European countries] might have felt like they should provide assurances toTurkeythatTurkeywill be defended against scenarios involving bigger conflict in the region withIranand Israel, Kibaro?lu said.
Kibaro?lu claims the deployment of Patriot missiles along the Turkish border is significant as it represents the first timeTurkeyand itsNATOallies appear to be on the same page regarding threats stemming from the Middle East.
Q: Why didTurkeyask for Patriot missiles?
In the short term the decision to deploy Patriot missiles must have been made with respect to Syria. There have been several incidents; there was the downing of the Turkish jets and there are also some speculations that if and when Bashar al-Assad leaves his post, he may want to make a last strike and damage Turkey.
But this is a precautionary measure [that has just now been resorted to], taking into consideration the most recent developments in the region as a whole, not only in respect to Syria. There is nothing I can say in order to substantiate this, but it might also be another precautionary measure of medium and long-term contingency such as ifIsraelattacksIranandIranwishes to retaliate. As I remember once, one of the high-ranking Iranian military officials said they would target U.S. bases in the region ifIsraelor the United States attacked Iran. Since we know ?ncirlik [Air Base] is within range of Iranian missiles these Patriots could provide defense as well as stand as a deterrence to possible strikes.
Q: How efficient is the system, especially when one considers the length of the Turkish-Syrian border?
A: To answer this question, I must have an idea as to which Patriots will be deployed in Turkey. There are three categories of Patriots. They have been upgraded several times. First generations were designed against aircraft; the second generations were designed against both aircraft and missiles.
Patriot advanced capability-3, also known as Pac 3, is the most sophisticated one. It is specifically designed to counter the threat posed by ballistic missiles. If Pac 3, which is in the hands of the Netherlands, will be deployed, then the efficiency will be higher. There is not yet an air defense system in operation which can provide 100 percent protection. Yet no county would be willing to let 80 percent of its missiles be destroyed by an enemy defense system either. Once deployed, an air defense system provides deterrence and it provides a significant proportion of defense.
Q: There are speculations that the deployment of Patriots could lead to the implementation of a no-fly zone. How valid are those speculations?
A: Prime MinisterRecep Tayyip Erdo?anannounced back in June that the rules of engagement have changed and said, We may very well take action against aircraft that violate our airspace. We also know that Turkish F-16s are given orders to fire if they have too and they are loaded. The presence of air defense systems and the Turkish Air Force flying with ammunition and under clear orders to fire if forced, then without pronouncing it directly, this might create a de facto no-fly zone in Turkish borders. That might make al-Assad think twice about whether he would like to push the Syrian conflict toward the border or keep it inside around the Damascus area.
Q: Then we will assume that theNATOallies have also accepted Turkeys new rules of engagement when the air defense system will be activated.
A: The rules of engagement were changed in June and talks [betweenTurkeyand NATO] have been ongoing for some time. The change must have been one of the topics in the discussion betweenTurkeyand NATO. The decision has not been made yet.Russiais now weighing in and we dont know whether Central and Eastern European countries will be concerned about Russias reaction and create some friction. But ifTurkeyhas formally put this issue on the table, they must be highly confident they will face no difficulty in getting the result they expect from these talks. If the decision is taken, I would assume the rules of engagement that have been changed must have been taken into consideration.NATOcountries will not say, Oh, we did not know about it.
Q: You claim NATOs decision is very important, why so?
A: It is very important because in the past especially European allies were not so enthusiastic in terms of allowing their capabilities to be deployed inTurkeywith respect to threats coming from the Middle East.Turkeywas asked not to get involved in conflicts with its Middle Eastern neighbors.
Back in March 1991 when late President Turgut zal asked for the deployment of a rapid reaction force, the European allies dragged their feet. It was only when zal made the issue public and said ifNATOis not with us and does not stand with us what is the use ofNATOthat the Belgian andGermanmilitary aircraft and Netherlands Patriots were deployed. But many inTurkeysaw this as too little too late.
In February 2003, in the run up to the second Iraq WarTurkeyand the U.S. askedNATOto enact Article 4, according to which the alliance would gather to consider possible contingencies as to what to do in case Saddam Hussein attacked Turkey. Belgium, Germany,Franceand Luxemburg said because the war seen on the horizon would be caused because of illegitimate U.S. acts, the European allies did not feel they were responsible for defending Turkey.
Its the first timeTurkeyand itsNATOallies are on the same page with respect to threats coming from the Middle East.
Q: Why have they come out so supportive now?
A: One part of the decision for European nations support might have something to do with future contingencies involving theIsraelandIransituation. Back in 1991 and 2003 when these Patriots were deployed they stayed only short term. This time their stay might be longer. This is my speculation and intuition as an academic. European countries are equally concerned about developments inIranand its nuclear program, and there is talk about a possible Israeli strike againstIranand Irans possible retaliation. They might have then felt like they should provide assurances toTurkeythatTurkeywill be defended against scenarios involving a bigger conflict in the region, involvingIranand Israel. I would also like to add this point: Most European andAmericansecurity analysts keep asking me ifTurkeywould like to do the same ifIranacquires nuclear weapons. I am having difficulties convincing them that, no,Turkeywould not do the same [in that situation.]Turkeyis a member of the nonproliferation treaty, and it has a tradition of observing its international obligations. But they feel like they should be providing more guarantees soTurkeydoes not go down the same path as Iran.
Q: Should Turkish citizens consider themselves lucky thatTurkeyhasNATOto rely on or should they feel sad thatTurkeydoes not have the necessary capability to defend itself?
A: Everybody accepts that the Turkish neighborhood is a difficult one and the Middle East is one of the most volatile regions in the world. Providing security to your people is an obligation. You can do this all by yourself, spending large sums of money and it might still not be enough because you might not have sufficient technological capabilities or you dont have sufficient financial capabilities. NATOs deterrence somehow diminishes the large sums of moneyTurkeywould have to spend on armament or on defense procurement otherwise.
Being aNATOmember,Turkeyhas some privileges as well as responsibilities. These privileges might have been better used in the past if we had better support in our fight against thePKK[outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party], for instance. There was reluctance fromNATOcountries to supportTurkeywhen everybody knew that thePKKwas getting support from neighboring countries.
So long asNATOmembers solidarity alongsideTurkeyagainst potential threats is in place, we might say that yes, being aNATOmember is a good thing. Sharing lightens the burden, andTurkeycan produce a bigger deterrence against potential threats and the cost of providing protection and defense is diminished. OtherwiseTurkeywould have to spend much bigger sums of money for its defense.
When investing in military assets, you have to sacrifice money from other spending areas, like education and health. A devoted politician would like to spend money on this kind of public service, but if you live in a difficult neighborhood you have to take certain precautions. If these precautions require you to spend all your money this is an unpleased situation, but if there are some alliances you can share the cost and burdens with and if it brings security guarantees, this is important.NATOprovides a positive security guarantee, which means it is on your side if you are attacked. This has not been the case in the past for threats emanating from the Middle East and the PKK, but this time European countries, almost for the first time, are really anxious to stand by Turkey.
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