29 Mar 2024
Saturday 6 January 2018 - 15:30
Story Code : 288939

Contrasting leadership styles in the Saudi-Iran conflict

LobeLog | Seyed Hossein Mousavian: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is steadily consolidating power in Riyadh and positioning himself to become the most powerful ruler in Saudi history. His rise has been accompanied with a ratcheting up of hostilities against Iran and evenwar rhetoric. As Saudi-Iran tensions increase, the lived experiences and leadership styles of the 78-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 32-year-old MBS will decide the future of peace and stability in the region.

Before Irans 1979 Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei was a political activist who opposed the dictatorship of the Shah and endured 15 years of prison, torture, and exile. He rose through the revolutionary ranks after the revolution and in 1981, was elected president. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988)which saw the United States and other global powers as well as regional Arab statessupportthe aggressor Saddam HusseinAyatollah Khameneiplayeda key role in overseeing and leading the war effort. MBS, on the other hand, was just born in 1985 and has no comparable experience.

During the 1980s, Iran also faced a wave of terrorism, with theMEK groupalone responsible for over17,000 deaths. Ayatollah Khamenei is himself a victim of terrorism, with one his arms left paralyzed after a bomb attack in 1981. The silver lining of Irans history of falling victim to terrorism is that its leaders have become counterterrorism veteransanother reason for Irans success in combatting terrorist groups throughout the region. MBS, meanwhile, does not have a counterterrorism track record and was preparing to take the reins of power at a time when,accordingto a 2014 email by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his country was providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL.

Divergent Foreign Policies

Ayatollah Khamenei has for 28 years presided over a state that has been subject to every form of economic, political, and security pressure by outside powerschiefly the United Statesaimed at spurring regime change. However, not only has Irans security and stability endured during this period, but the country hasemergedas an influential regional power. Policies of sanctions, pressure, and threats of war against Tehran have in fact resulted in Iran consolidating its position as the only regional statenot beholdento foreign powers for its security.

Moreover, Ayatollah Khameneis national security strategy has been premised on the belief that resisting U.S. hegemonic aspirations in the Middle East is not only the source of Irans strength, but allows it to maintain itsindependence.

On the contrary, the Saudi royal family views the United States as its security guarantor and has relied on U.S. military, political, and economic patronage for decades.In May, MBS signaled his aim to continue this dependency by signing the largest arms deal in U.S. history for $350 billionand thereby winningfull supportfor his regional and domestic agenda from the White House.

Within the region, Tehran hasformeda strategic partnership with Russia. At the behest of the Syrian and Iraqi governments, Tehran hasplayeda key role in those countries to secure their territorial integrity and defeat terrorist organizations in the vein of the Islamic State (ISIS or IS). Saudi Arabia, despite being givencarte blancheby the Trump White House, has waded into a quagmire in Yemen, creating the worldsgreatest humanitarian catastrophewith its ferocious bombing campaign. It has failed in its attempt to orchestrate regime change in Qatar and Syria, witnessed its effort to undermine the Lebanese governmentbackfirein full view of the international community, and maintains anever-moreprecarioushold over Bahrain. Such actions have earned MBS a reputation as hotheaded and impulsive, withTheNew York Timesnotinghow many in Saudi Arabia view him as brash, power-hungry and inexperienced. Other analysts havestatedhow under MBS, Saudi Arabia has become an irrational actor in the Middle East.

Another vital aspect of Irans national and regional security strategy has been its experience in successfully mobilizing popular forces to complement its professional armed forces. Ayatollah Khomeini initiated this policy after Saddam Husseins invasion of Iran in 1980, which led to the creation of popular militia units that would eventually become theIslamic Revolutionary Guards CorpsandBasij. Ayatollah Sistani, Iraqs most senior religious leader, emulated this model of mobilizing popular forcesin 2014 after IS overran large parts of the country. The ensuingPopular Mobilization Forcesplayed a decisive role in the fight against IS. A similar model has also been implemented in Syria with theNational Defense Forcesand other groups.

Iran has also made opposition to Israel a core aspect of its foreign policy and has paid a high cost for its support of the Palestinians. On the other side, MBS is rapidlyfosteringties with Israel in an attempt to confront Iranian regional influence.Saudi Arabiasgreen lightto President Donald Trump to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel willcontributedramatically to the erosion of the kings popularity and legitimacy while making iteasierforIran to influence the Muslim world to stand together to resist the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia in defense of the Palestinians and the holy sites.

Ayatollah Khamenei is well entrenched in his position, coming into it by way of a majority vote from Irans Assembly of Expertsa popularlyelectedbody. He maintains legitimacy as a political figure and, as aShia marja,is a religious guide to millions around the world. As recentpurgesindicate, MBS is sidelining his rivals to ward off potential obstacles to the crown once his father passes away or abdicates.

On matters of the economy, Ayatollah Khamenei and MBS also differ fundamentally. Although both Iran and Saudi Arabia suffer from corruption, chronic unemployment, and an oil-price plunge, Iran has in the face of these challenges taken steps toreform its inefficient subsidy systemand diversify its economy. The World Bank has noted how oil accounts for roughly30 percentof government revenues in Iran, as opposed to nearly90 percentin Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the IMF hassaidthat Saudi Arabia will again this year run a deficit, further draining its foreign reserves. Given that traditionally Saudi Arabias influence in the Arab world has been based on its financial power, this declining financial prowess will undermine Saudi political leadership in the Arab world.

Therecentprotests in various Iranian cities that have claimed a number of lives and injuries are rooted in economic grievances. At the same time, the Trump White House hascoordinatedbelligerent actions against Iran with Israel and Saudi Arabia to more aggressive ends than in the past. MBS, whose consolidation of power in the kingdom Trump has emphatically supported, has explicitlydeclaredthat he would take the battle inside Iran. After the failures of the coup dtats in Turkey, Qatar, and most recentlyreportedlyin Jordanas well as the effectivehostage takingof the Lebanese prime minister by Saudi Arabiathe Washington-Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-Tel Aviv axis is now seeking to exploit peaceful protests in Iran and stoke instability and chaos inside the country.

Divergent Leadership Styles

Irans leader wasraisedin a poor household and has maintained a modest lifestyle since assuming official positions after the revolution. In contrast, MBS has from birth lived in ornate palaces and never tasted personal hardship or poverty. Last year,TheNew York Timesevenreportedthat he owned a $500 million yacht.

With over 50 years of political, military, and securityexperience, the Iranian leader is well versed in geopolitics and strategic decision-making and presides over a relatively efficient state with a rich civilization heritage. This is chiefly why, within the region, Iran has been able to make maximum gains with minimum costs, while Saudi Arabia has paid maximum costs and made minimum gains.

Nevertheless, Mohammad bin Salman is a young and ambitious leader who has an unprecedented reform plan to transform Saudi Arabia into a more open society and curb the power of its fundamentalist Wahhabi religious establishment. This is precisely what Saudi Arabia needs. If he manages to succeed, the country will become a major force for stability and development in the region and the Arab world. On the other hand, the entire Middle East will witness a new wave of havoc if Saudi Arabia succumbs to chaos.

After the eruption of the Arab uprisings in 2011, a major change in the regions geopolitical landscape is inevitable. A zero-sum Iran-Saudi relationship will not only be detrimental to regional stability, it will diminishnot enhanceprospects for Saudi reform. Cooperation between these two major regional heavyweights remains the key element to shape a new peaceful Middle Eastern order and enable MBS to manage Saudi Arabias domestic challenges.

AmbassadorSeyed Hossein Mousavianis Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University and a former Iranian diplomat. His latest book,Iran and the United States: An Insiders view on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace,was released in May 2014. Photo: Mohammed bin Salman and Ayatollah Khamenei
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